Time to expand the system ..

June 8, 2011 by Administrator 3 Comments

This time next week we will have seen Canford Cliffs take on Goldikova, Frankel the freak return, the best 2 year old race so far of the season and a high class sprint in the Kings Stand. It’s making my mouth water just thinking about it, the only shame is we have to wait until Tuesday. Five day declarations are on the doorstep so I’ll try and post a few more ante post thoughts in the meantime. I’ve also been hearing a lot about Nathaniel for the Leger and know that Underground Tipster has selected him for that race antepost. I think he’ll obviously go off shorter than 10s if he runs and I’m somewhat tempted to also put him up but I think I’ll wait and see what happens at Ascot next week. For instance if Treasure Beach ended up at Doncaster I wouldn’t be convinced Nathaniel would turn the form around and again I’m not convinced he’ll shorten dramatically if he loses a few races in the meantime. As I say I’ll revisit the market post Ascot.

Going to start testing a few more systems along the same lines but I want to concentrate on trainers sending as many runners to the track as possible in the class 4 and 5 handicaps where they have a 10% strike rate and the win rate is 25%, place 40%. Essentially removing the trainer one runner system element from the testing. I’m purely going to test this system, the thinking behind it is some trainers I’ve noticed like to send two or three to a course and in some case two in the same race with essentially one a no hoper. I’m going to stick with the class 4 and 5 handicaps though for all test bets but if a trainer sends 2 to a track, one in a class 6 seller and one in a class 5 handicap then the latter will still qualify. I’m guessing this probably doesn’t make much sense but I’ll try and explain as we go … problem may come when trainers send 6 or 7 to a track and then we end up with 20 qualifiers per day. I’ll see how it goes for a week – the old method one runner per track is still obviously being kept separate and I’d only follow that. If it makes no sense fear not I will elaborate in more detail tomorrow when I’m more awake.

Going forward red are the actual bets which have been profitable, blue are test bets where trainers have sent more than one runner to the track. There are no Red bets today so it’s only the new test bets. I’d be over the moon if Dahaam does the job as he’s a Bet Buddy selection today. Keith Dalgleish sends three to Hamilton and his strike rate in the past week has been 5 winners from 7, with the other Frequency who runs in a handicap today placed second.

• 2.20 Haydock – Mistoffelees – L Cumani (4) (17%)
• 2.20 Haydock – Dahaam – D Simcock (4) (20%)
• 3.00 Beverley – Wotatomboy – R Whittaker (5) (10%)
• 4.20 Haydock – Georgebernardshaw – D Simcock (4) (20%)
• 7.30 Hamilton – Jobe – K Ryan (4) (21%)
• 7.30 Hamilton – Frequency – K Dalgleish (4) (10%)
• 7.30 Hamilton – Desert Icon – D Simcock (4) (50%)