Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Keeping calm

6 Comments

One of the biggest lessons I’ve learnt whilst betting this past year is to not get too carried when your winning and likewise not get too downbeat when you’re losing. It’s bloody hard to do mind as currently the losers seem to be coming thick and fast again, having a mindset though to deal with the losers is in my opinion incredibly important. Tuesday I had plenty of losers from bets I’d analysed pre racing from using the Formbet data and then after seeing they were going pear shaped I decided to venture onto the summer jumping scene, bad move without anywhere near as much background work. Yesterday a similar fate befell me whereby I woke about 5 having placed the bets early in the morning and checked the results again in negative equity, however I didn’t chase and ultimately was happy that although it wasn’t a great day – did improve slightly in the evening – I didn’t end up putting on bets that I’d not planned to. I think we all have a desire to try and get somewhere as quickly as possible and in a way betting is like that if you want to bet in every race each day then chances are you’ll get caught speeding. You’ve just got to remain patient and disciplined – take the daily hit reduce the percentage on the bank etc. As it goes every day I start with a 100pt bank and from the cash spread around in my accounts 1pt tends to vary from day to day. It’s by no means a big sum neither but I think ensuring you’re not playing with scared money helps to deal with the endless flow of losers! I will say though if Granston had a longer neck then I’d have been looking at a 25/1 winner and the past three or four days would have been very nicely profitable.

Did take a look at a few races today and mulled over a few bets, the 3.05 at Newbury for instance looks a competitive little heat and Rumh who finished behind Dancing Rain and Izzi Top last time out could go well at 3/1, there are though a number of other unknown quantities in the race so have left it alone. Additionally I may be tempted to give Rainbow Springs another chance in the 3.40 Maiden as she has some excellent two year old form behind Frankel in a fast time and then behind Misty For Me in the Prix Marcel Boussac. Does look a tough maiden mind with a number of other very likeable fillies, looks a good race. Worth noting Sir Mark Prescott has a terrific record at Yarmouth and he sends a couple today.

System Bets –

Couple today from the actual system bets.

  • 4.15 Newbury – Amhran – B Meehan (4) (10%)
  • 8.50 Haydock – May Be Some Time – S Kittow (5) (33%)

 Plenty of test bets, which returned 7 losers from 7 selections. An inauspicious start. There’s another 7 today so I wonder if we will get a repeat! Will review whether it’s worth continuing with this after the weekend. As next week at Ascot I’ll try and put up a few personal bets so won’t spend all my time trying to speed up the system bets.

  • Test
  • 2.30 Newbury – Levitate – Sir M Stoute (5) (17%)
  • 5.00 Yarmouth – Memory Lane – Sir M Prescott (5) (31%)
  • 6.20 Haydock – Lord Lansing – Mrs K Burke (5) (30%)
  • 6.20 Haydock – Raktiman – T Dascombe (5) (19%)
  • 7.20 Haydock – Atlantic Cycle – Mrs K Burke (4) (30%)
  • 8.20 Haydock – Elusivity – B Meehan (4) (14%)
  • 8.50 Haydock – Red Inca – B Meehan (5) (14%)
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6 thoughts on “Keeping calm

  1. I really don’t understand why you’re trying out your latest test system on here, especially as you have tested, refined, re-refined and presumably very happy with your basic one trainer-one meeting system. It’s rather like washing your dirty linen in public, not a very nice sight. A great pity, as I like your work generally.

  2. I agree with Tony.
    Confidence has a huge effect on punters, and when you are posting-up 9 selections (like today) then you are looking for 2, possibly 3, winners just to break even on the day. As such, it is no surprise that a few losing wagers makes you feel downbeat. This is a free blog you are writing, and you have an edge (the one-trainer, one-meeting system) which works. You should have just one selection today MAY BE SOME TIME in the 8:50 at Haydock. Testing and refining of new systems you are trying should be done in private and, if they work, only then introduce them on the blog.
    Otherwise, you are in danger of losing blog-reader confidence.

  3. For me it’s much better to test out systems ‘in public’ than keep them behind closed doors and then suddenly spring them on people. For starters it gives full transparency as to what you are ‘testing’ and can also generate ‘constructive’ feedback from others who may have suggestions on ways to improve upon the basic method. It also helps to see how systems or methods have been developed and tested.
    For example, a ‘minimum odds’ or ‘value’ filter may help reduce the number of qualifiers/selections so you are only betting on the contenders that are offering you the best bang for your buck. Keep ’em coming and good luck today mate 🙂

  4. I will reply in further detail later in a blog post to describe why I’ve tried to look at further systems and I appreciate all the above comments.

    Tony, I can see why you may see this is like going over old ground again but I just wanted to test whether it was worthwhile looking at all runners the trainers sends or just the one. From early evidence it may seem a pointless test and I wasn’t sure whether to test it privately or up on here, it probably would be easier to test privately as I wouldn’t have to spend time getting the selections up. However as Dave says I’ve not tried to hide anything from anyone here and I’ve made it clear these are not actual selections, I’m not following them with any money.

    Ian, I don’t really see what confidence has to do with it? I don’t think about the selections they pick themselves, if there are none for a week and then seven in a day then I’ll back them all (the one runner system). The wagers I’ve lost the last few days have nothing to do with the current test systems as I’ve stated I’m not backing these purely on those grounds, I did back Daheen yesterday but that was purely due to Bet Buddy. I don’t see why I should be selecting only one bet a day if more qualify like today two do. Plus I didn’t know there was a blog reader confidence, people rarely comment so I’ve no clue if anyone actually finds it useful or has any confidence in the selections be it the system bets or the personal ones I’ve put up.

    Cheers for those words Dave, I’ll keep trying.

    Sorry if I sound a bit aggressive.

  5. Maybe I read too much into your blog today.
    You know you’ve got my support.

  6. Sorry pal, I probably came across somewhat harshly there. I will explain the system bets and testing tonight in more detail, I’ve not explained myself very well 🙂

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