Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness


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DFS Week 3

Sorry for the lack of an update last week – I ended up breaking just about even on Draftkings. With very little return in the way of cash games but did have a best place finish of 5k out of 277k in the millionaire event. I had a lot of exposure in cash games to Green, Brown and Robinson which killed me somewhat.

This week I’m going to tighten up my events and put a little more thought into matters. Will probably play it 80/20 in terms of cash games as if you make the top 50% you double your investment. The tournaments are much harder to win a decent pot with and even that 5k only returned $40 profit. They are far too top heavy bit like poker tournaments I guess.

Anyhow this week here is my main tournament lineup. Personally I’m going to use the tournaments as taking more risks and then the cash games much more solid. High-ownership in the cash games isn’t a problem but in the tournament you need a few contrarian plays. My favourite this week is Wilson/Graham from Seahawks. It’s not been a good week for the Hawks what with losing to the terrible Rams and then losing a draft pick. I expect them to come out really firing against the old foes the 49ers – who play fast and last week showed us are liable to concede stacks of points. I also want to ensure I have an investment in the Colts/Chargers game and then a few more players who could have low ownership. Firstly Allen Robinson who has had a couple of tough weeks but I’m expecting him to bounce back this week and DeSean Jackson who for some reason always seems to get under-owned despite his propensity to score an 80 yard TD each week. Benjamin’s ownership will be high but he is the top pass catching option in that game with Jason Verrett on Hilton. I want pass catching backs against bad run defences hence the choices of David Johnson, Coleman and Murray. The Cowboys are my favourite defense this week. I also like the Dolphins naturally vs the Browns and Kessler but I’d expect a lot of players to be on the Dolphins. Bryan Hoyer on a short week appeals a lot.

Tournament line-up

Russell Wilson $7,100

David Johnson $7,700

DeMarco Murray $6,300

Allen Robinson £7,500

DeSean Jackson $5,900

Travis Benjamin $5,200

Jimmy Graham $3,000

Tevin Coleman $4,500

Cowboys $2,500

 

My cash game line ups will be based around the following players and I will be doing very little stacking here. The player I have pretty much everywhere is Stefon Diggs at $5,100. He and Bradford looked awesome the other night and the Panthers secondary is definitely not its strongest suit.

QB – Rivers, Ryan, Luck, Tannehill

RB – D Williams, CJ Anderson, Gordon, Forte, Elliott, Sproles, Riddick, Sims.

WR – Brown, Julio, Fitzgerald, Diggs, Benjamin, Cooks, Marvin Jones, Dorsett

TE – Witten, Walker, Pitta, Tamme

D – Dolphins, Bengals, Cowboys

 

Will try get some game picks up for Sunday as we now have a decent idea of how the teams are looking.

Patriots-Falcons-NFL-September-2013_


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NFL DFS – Week 1

Howdy,

Long time no see.

Thought I would pop back in with the NFL season just about to start and the football season beginning to get into a bit more swing. This year instead of picking NFL games as we go (not that I did that last year) I thought it would be more helpful perhaps to list my favourite DFS (Daily Fantasy Selection) plays each week and post up some teams. After all I’m kinda addicted to fantasy football, fantasy NFL what not …

I’m going to be playing on the Draft Kings UK site – you can find a link on my Twitter and it’s also here. https://www.draftkings.co.uk/r/LonesomePundit

 

Week 1 –

Looking through this section of games I want a fair bit of exposure to the games in Indianapolis, New Orleans and Dallas. Historically all those teams involved in those games are not great defensively so I would lean to those games being more shoot outs. The Cardinals v Patriots game is one I really feel could end up lower scoring than expected with New England having to roll with Garrapolo. My favourite stacks this week are Stafford + Marvin Jones (Colts secondary in a bad way), Manning + OBJ (Pretty standard), Luck + Moncrief – predicting a high score game there.

Players I want to have in as many lineups as possible include Spencer Ware ($4,000), M Jones ($4,800) and Moncrief ($6,000).

QB wise – I would lean towards those games where it looks to be high scoring. Prescott is a decent cheap option but I’m favouring the likes of Luck, Manning, Stafford. Rodgers could easily light up Jacksonville also. I would look at avoiding Newton.

Running back wise I have looked with my teams at getting one RB who is relatively expensive Miller or Elliott and then some cheaper options Jennings, Ware, Mathews. I’m fading Gurley at 49ers as I feel that could end up a defensive slog fest around 15-12. Other running backs I would look at avoiding are David Johnson, McCoy and Lacy. Where possible I’d lean to using the flex as a wide receiver as they tend to score the bigger points (20+), running backs bit more consistent but you want to shoot for the stars.

Wide receivers I think it makes sense to pay up for the quality where best possible – so Brown, Julio and OBJ are in a number of my teams. I’m also using Watkins (Ravens secondary wasn’t great last year), Marvin Jones, Moncrief and Lockett (Big play ability) in several teams. Tajae Sharpe ($3,000) is a worthwhile consideration for a cheap flex to accomodate some of the bigger names.

WRs I’m fading at this point include Hopkins (think Houston run all over Bears – not confident in Osweiler), Dez Bryant (mainly due to workload – think they run more), AJ Green (Revis Island) and Amari Cooper. In essence I would try and get two of OBJ, Julio or Brown and pair them with a lower rated stud in a predicted high scoring game.

TE – Gronk at his $7,400 is a fade for me. Especially with Garrapolo throwing the nut. I would lean towards some lower options here including Walford, Dwayne Allen, McDonald and Virgil Green.

DST – Browns ($2,300) – Carson Wentz. Texans, Eagles, Giants also teams I like.

 

Here is my team for the $5m Millionaire event.

Eli Manning (QB), Lamar Miller (RB), Spencer Ware (RB), O. Beckham Jr. (WR), Tyler Lockett (WR), Donte Moncrief (WR), Clive Walford (TE), Marvin Jones Jr. (FLEX), Texans (DST)

 

Will post some thoughts on the actual games Friday/Saturday. Panthers @ Broncos tomorrow.


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NFL 2015 – Team by team Vegas win lines

In anticipation of the forthcoming NFL season which I’m going to look into detail a lot more – going to sling up some thoughts on the 32 teams regular season win lines. Will do them in batches of 5 so there will be 6 or so separate posts. Come the season itself I will try and put up selections each week – I don’t really see the point of plucking a Superbowl winner yet as basically the likely winners are all pretty short and won’t move much until the playoffs. A couple of teams who could trade lower than they are at the minute though are the Atlanta Falcons (55/1 on Betfair) and San Francisco 49ers (70/1 on Betfair) – yes there is a lot of hate about the Niners but they still have some pretty handy pieces – the defense despite losing a few players should still be more than competitive with Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis. While hate on Kaepernick all you want but it was only a few years back that he took them to the Super Bowl. Last year there was an incredible amount of talk coming out of the organisation with Harbaugh leaving – they will still be decent at home. I can see the Niners going 10-6 which will keep them competitively in the hunt for the playoffs. The Falcons division is pretty terrible and their problem last few years has been the defense – Dan Quinn should solve that somewhat. Julio and Ryan are always going to score points. The Falcons also have the easiest schedule this season on paper with their opponent win record from last season totalling 0.409%. Looking through their schedule I can see them also going 10-6 and winning that division which will lead to a home playoff game and the 55/1 should be a fair bit shorter.

Arizona Cardinals – Recommended bet Under +8.5 wins @ Evens (Paddy Power)

The Cardinals went 11-5 last year which was commendable with the sheer number of QBs they ended up playing – but it’s worth noting they play in the toughest division and last year they went 5-1 in games decided by less than eight points and games which were won in the fourth quarter – a few of those to swing the other way and they go 8-8. It also doesn’t help that they have lost Todd Bowles the defensive co-ordinator to the Jets and Antonio Cromartie and Dan Williams on defense. The Cardinals also have no real easy games at home – even if they go 3-3 in the division you wouldn’t pick Baltimore, New Orleans, Green Bay, Cincinnati and Minnesota as your other 5 home games.

Atlanta Falcons – Recommended bet Over +8.5 wins @ 20/23 (Bet 365) – Double Bet

I’ve already spoken in detail about the Falcons and expect them to reach double figures in wins as such I expect them to beat the 8.5 Vegas win line. As I say the coaching changes should help – Kyle Shanahan after all helped the Browns to a 7-9 record last season. The schedule really is the icing on top. Even if they have some shocking games this will be within reach.

Baltimore Ravens – Recommended bet Over +9 wins @ 5/6 (Bet Victor)

The Ravens without fail are one of the more competitive NFL teams year-in year-out they have one of the best head coaches and adding Marc Trestman to the mix should ensure continuity on offense. Jimmy Smith coming back from injury will help boost a leaky secondary and while the 9 win line is high the Ravens have averaged 10.4 over the last five years. The schedule isn’t the easiest one but the Ravens do have some nice easy games on the block including the Browns twice, Jacksonville and Oakland.

Buffalo Bills – Recommended bet Over 8.5 wins @ Evens (Ladbrokes)

The Bills are a tough team to gauge as they tend to usually be underestimated and could throw in a right shocker. However, last year they went 9-7 and this season they look a better team having added playmakers in Percy Harvin and LeSean McCoy and kept the defense intact which was by most metrics one of the best last season. Having Rex Ryan run the defense should make it even more fierce and I don’t imagine the Bills will be blown away in any games. Offensively Greg Roman is an improvement as OC – a lot depends on the QB situation but they do have weapons with the two mentioned and Sammy Watkins. The NFC East could be a right old ding dong this year with the Patriots losing Brady for the first four games.

Carolina Panthers – Recommended bet Under 8.5 wins @ 4/5 (BetVictor)

The Panthers ended last season in excellent form winning the NFC South and then beating the Cardinals in a playoff game as a result they face having to play the three other NFC divisional winners from last year. I think they’ll be competitive but in a division where I expect the Falcons and Saints to improve and to a degree the Buccaneers (they won’t go 2-14) then I’m struggling to see the Panthers winning ten games. Nine is possible – but I think I’d take my chances on eight or less a lot of the time. To get to nine I think they’ll have to win the division which I don’t see happening.

Next up – Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos.

Patriots-Falcons-NFL-September-2013_


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Experimental Challenge – 21st July

Lonesome Pundit

Redcar +7

 

GYTO

Redcar -5

 

Overall

Lonesome Pundit +14.76

GYTO -17.775

 

Today’s below.

 

 

Ayr

2.15 My Dream Boat 5/2

2.45 Goninodaethat 7/1

3.20 Corncockle 13/2

3.50 Clumber Place 11/1

4.25 Next Stop 5/2

4.55 Ingleby Angel 12/1

5.25 Harrisons Cave 4/1

 

Beverley

6.15 Studio Star 6/1

6.45 Haajes 20/1

7.15 Ice Mayden 9/2

7.45 Moonlight Venture 4/1

8.15 Telegraphy 4/1

8.45 Rainbow Rock 2/1

 

Windsor

6.25 Mystic And Artist 5/1

6.55 Mythical Madness 13/8

7.25 Carraig Rock 16/1

7.55 Mission Approved 2/1

8.25 Evident 7/1

8.55 Shama’s Song 5/2


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Experimental Challenge – 20th July

Total shocker of a day today – one winner from 29. It happens alas!

Good job it’s all paper trading and again I’m purely trying to see if a few things I can identify quickly can turn an advantage. I won’t be doing it forever that’s for sure if there many more days like today.

 

Results

Lonesome Pundit -20

Newbury -7

Ripon -6

Newmarket -5

Haydock -4

Lingfield +2

 

GYTO -8.125 (Only selections from Newmarket, Newbury and Haydock) – I’m not counting the Irish stuff as use a few things which don’t monitor it so well.

Newbury -2

Newmarket -3

Haydock -3.125

 

Just the one meeting today thankfully.

 

Redcar

2.10 Pensax Boy

2.40 Tukitinyasok 5/1

3.10 Storyline 8/1

3.40 Gabrial The Duke

4.10 See The Storm 14/1

4.40 No Poppy 17/2

5.10 My New Angel 16/1

5.40 Dubara Reef 10/1