Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness


Leave a comment

DFS Week 3

Sorry for the lack of an update last week – I ended up breaking just about even on Draftkings. With very little return in the way of cash games but did have a best place finish of 5k out of 277k in the millionaire event. I had a lot of exposure in cash games to Green, Brown and Robinson which killed me somewhat.

This week I’m going to tighten up my events and put a little more thought into matters. Will probably play it 80/20 in terms of cash games as if you make the top 50% you double your investment. The tournaments are much harder to win a decent pot with and even that 5k only returned $40 profit. They are far too top heavy bit like poker tournaments I guess.

Anyhow this week here is my main tournament lineup. Personally I’m going to use the tournaments as taking more risks and then the cash games much more solid. High-ownership in the cash games isn’t a problem but in the tournament you need a few contrarian plays. My favourite this week is Wilson/Graham from Seahawks. It’s not been a good week for the Hawks what with losing to the terrible Rams and then losing a draft pick. I expect them to come out really firing against the old foes the 49ers – who play fast and last week showed us are liable to concede stacks of points. I also want to ensure I have an investment in the Colts/Chargers game and then a few more players who could have low ownership. Firstly Allen Robinson who has had a couple of tough weeks but I’m expecting him to bounce back this week and DeSean Jackson who for some reason always seems to get under-owned despite his propensity to score an 80 yard TD each week. Benjamin’s ownership will be high but he is the top pass catching option in that game with Jason Verrett on Hilton. I want pass catching backs against bad run defences hence the choices of David Johnson, Coleman and Murray. The Cowboys are my favourite defense this week. I also like the Dolphins naturally vs the Browns and Kessler but I’d expect a lot of players to be on the Dolphins. Bryan Hoyer on a short week appeals a lot.

Tournament line-up

Russell Wilson $7,100

David Johnson $7,700

DeMarco Murray $6,300

Allen Robinson £7,500

DeSean Jackson $5,900

Travis Benjamin $5,200

Jimmy Graham $3,000

Tevin Coleman $4,500

Cowboys $2,500

 

My cash game line ups will be based around the following players and I will be doing very little stacking here. The player I have pretty much everywhere is Stefon Diggs at $5,100. He and Bradford looked awesome the other night and the Panthers secondary is definitely not its strongest suit.

QB – Rivers, Ryan, Luck, Tannehill

RB – D Williams, CJ Anderson, Gordon, Forte, Elliott, Sproles, Riddick, Sims.

WR – Brown, Julio, Fitzgerald, Diggs, Benjamin, Cooks, Marvin Jones, Dorsett

TE – Witten, Walker, Pitta, Tamme

D – Dolphins, Bengals, Cowboys

 

Will try get some game picks up for Sunday as we now have a decent idea of how the teams are looking.

Advertisements


2 Comments

NFL 2015 – Team by team Vegas win lines

In anticipation of the forthcoming NFL season which I’m going to look into detail a lot more – going to sling up some thoughts on the 32 teams regular season win lines. Will do them in batches of 5 so there will be 6 or so separate posts. Come the season itself I will try and put up selections each week – I don’t really see the point of plucking a Superbowl winner yet as basically the likely winners are all pretty short and won’t move much until the playoffs. A couple of teams who could trade lower than they are at the minute though are the Atlanta Falcons (55/1 on Betfair) and San Francisco 49ers (70/1 on Betfair) – yes there is a lot of hate about the Niners but they still have some pretty handy pieces – the defense despite losing a few players should still be more than competitive with Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis. While hate on Kaepernick all you want but it was only a few years back that he took them to the Super Bowl. Last year there was an incredible amount of talk coming out of the organisation with Harbaugh leaving – they will still be decent at home. I can see the Niners going 10-6 which will keep them competitively in the hunt for the playoffs. The Falcons division is pretty terrible and their problem last few years has been the defense – Dan Quinn should solve that somewhat. Julio and Ryan are always going to score points. The Falcons also have the easiest schedule this season on paper with their opponent win record from last season totalling 0.409%. Looking through their schedule I can see them also going 10-6 and winning that division which will lead to a home playoff game and the 55/1 should be a fair bit shorter.

Arizona Cardinals – Recommended bet Under +8.5 wins @ Evens (Paddy Power)

The Cardinals went 11-5 last year which was commendable with the sheer number of QBs they ended up playing – but it’s worth noting they play in the toughest division and last year they went 5-1 in games decided by less than eight points and games which were won in the fourth quarter – a few of those to swing the other way and they go 8-8. It also doesn’t help that they have lost Todd Bowles the defensive co-ordinator to the Jets and Antonio Cromartie and Dan Williams on defense. The Cardinals also have no real easy games at home – even if they go 3-3 in the division you wouldn’t pick Baltimore, New Orleans, Green Bay, Cincinnati and Minnesota as your other 5 home games.

Atlanta Falcons – Recommended bet Over +8.5 wins @ 20/23 (Bet 365) – Double Bet

I’ve already spoken in detail about the Falcons and expect them to reach double figures in wins as such I expect them to beat the 8.5 Vegas win line. As I say the coaching changes should help – Kyle Shanahan after all helped the Browns to a 7-9 record last season. The schedule really is the icing on top. Even if they have some shocking games this will be within reach.

Baltimore Ravens – Recommended bet Over +9 wins @ 5/6 (Bet Victor)

The Ravens without fail are one of the more competitive NFL teams year-in year-out they have one of the best head coaches and adding Marc Trestman to the mix should ensure continuity on offense. Jimmy Smith coming back from injury will help boost a leaky secondary and while the 9 win line is high the Ravens have averaged 10.4 over the last five years. The schedule isn’t the easiest one but the Ravens do have some nice easy games on the block including the Browns twice, Jacksonville and Oakland.

Buffalo Bills – Recommended bet Over 8.5 wins @ Evens (Ladbrokes)

The Bills are a tough team to gauge as they tend to usually be underestimated and could throw in a right shocker. However, last year they went 9-7 and this season they look a better team having added playmakers in Percy Harvin and LeSean McCoy and kept the defense intact which was by most metrics one of the best last season. Having Rex Ryan run the defense should make it even more fierce and I don’t imagine the Bills will be blown away in any games. Offensively Greg Roman is an improvement as OC – a lot depends on the QB situation but they do have weapons with the two mentioned and Sammy Watkins. The NFC East could be a right old ding dong this year with the Patriots losing Brady for the first four games.

Carolina Panthers – Recommended bet Under 8.5 wins @ 4/5 (BetVictor)

The Panthers ended last season in excellent form winning the NFC South and then beating the Cardinals in a playoff game as a result they face having to play the three other NFC divisional winners from last year. I think they’ll be competitive but in a division where I expect the Falcons and Saints to improve and to a degree the Buccaneers (they won’t go 2-14) then I’m struggling to see the Panthers winning ten games. Nine is possible – but I think I’d take my chances on eight or less a lot of the time. To get to nine I think they’ll have to win the division which I don’t see happening.

Next up – Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos.

Patriots-Falcons-NFL-September-2013_


Leave a comment

NFL tonight

Here’s what I’m backing. I’ll update the guest tipster results later, two winners out of two which keeps @TipsterJones flying high.

Broncos – Ravens.

Ravens +9.5 @ 10/11 Sporting Bet

Under 46 @ 10/11 William Hill
Moreno Rushing yards +74.5 @ 10/11 Hills – MAX BET
Pierce Rusing yards +35 @ 5/6 Bet365

Think Broncos win quite comfortably but not enough to smash the spread, they beat Ravens 31-17 a few weeks back. However, from reports the weather is pretty atrocious as such I expect the running games of both teams to excel. Moreno rushed for 118 against Ravens in that game, and has been averaging nearly 90 bar last week when he didn’t need to run loads. All games last week were under the spread and I think with the weather similar will happen here. Pierce ran for over 100 last week, banking on him getting some work and he only needs to bust one. Chances are he may also get fourth quarter carries in a losing battle.

Expect score to be something like Broncos 23 – Ravens 15

49ers – Packers.

Packers +3 – 5/6 Various. Could probably just as easily back Packers to win at 13/10 – probably makes more sense.
Under 45 @ 19/20 Bet Victor

First TD scorers – small bets.
Randall Cobb @ 12/1 Various.
Dujuan Harris @12/1 @ Various
John Kuhn @ 28/1 – Hills

Think this game is closer, but Rodgers has the edge for me. Last 4 games he’s thrown 11 TDs and 0 interceptions. 49ers do have home advantage but in a strange way I think Packers play better without the pressure – remember them battering Houston. I’ve taken the Packers on the spread but to win is just as sound. Think the points will be under again, a few tweets said the pitch isn’t great similar to Redskins surface last week. 49ers D is solid but then so is the Packers and they have Woodson and Matthews back after a spell out earlier in the season. Regards the TD scorers bottom two will likely get goalline carries. Kuhn scored 2TD last week from close range, Harris is the main RB for Green Bay and ran well last week, also scored TD. Cobb just fancy him!

Plumping for Packers 22 – 49 ers 19


Leave a comment

NFL Wildcard picks

Bengals @ Texans

This is a repeat of the wildcard match last year in which the Texans won 31-10. This time around though I sense things will be different. Bengals have won 7 of the last 8 matches and although they have only beaten the Ravens of the playoff teams in that spell, they are 6-2 away from home this year and the team in form. The only game they’ve lost recently was to the Cowboys and that was by 1 point with a last minute field goal. The Texans on the other hand are on a horrid little spell having lost 3 of the last 4 and also lost what looked like a nailed bye having been 11-1. In that spell they’ve been slaughtered by the Patriots and been rolled over by the Vikings and Colts. Quarterback Matt Schaub has struggled during the last quarter of the season throwing one TD compared to three interceptions. And although RB Arian Foster is one of the best (if not the best barring Peterson) in the league he has had a long season, carries wise and looks to have slowed down. The Bengals defence has carried it of late, plus it’s playing to a level similar if not above the Texans of late and I expect similar to happen here.

Prediction – Bengals 22 – Texans 16.

Bet – Back the Bengals to win match. Money Line @ 19/10 William Hill.

TD please AJ!

TD please AJ!

Vikings @ Packers

This match pits two divisional sides against each other at Green Bay’s home Lambeau Field. The home side finished the season 11-5 and won 9 of the last eleven games. They are unbeaten in seven matches at home during that period and they defeated the Vikings 23-14 back at the beginning of December. On the other hand the Vikings are also in decent form having won their last four matches against the Bears, Rams, Texans and Packers – teams with an overall record of 40-23-1. So they’ve not been beating up the Chiefs and Jaguars of this world. I think the Packers will probably win here as last week the Vikings had to win to make the playoffs whereas the Packers had already made it – albeit winning would have assured them the second seed. However, I think the Vikings keep it closer than the spread. As I say they’ve won the last four and I don’t expect Green Bay to blow them completely out of the water.

Prediction – Vikings 20 – Packers 24

Bet – Back the Vikings on the spread. Vikings +8.5pts @ 10/11 Skybet

Keep it close AP!

Keep it close AP!

Sunday’s games up tomorrow.


Leave a comment

NFL Opinions

Possible I won’t have the time to preview the wildcard matches this weekend, however the following blog posts and previews are worth reading if you fancy having a bet.

Underground Tipster   http://www.undergroundtipster.com/guest-tips/index.html

GT_Tips   http://gttsports.tumblr.com/post/15344492564/nfl-picks-post-season-play-off-picture

Shutdown Corner     http://www.theshutdowncorner.info/blog.html

 

If anyone has any others or any opinions then let’s hear them and roll on 8pm and Sky Sports 2