Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness


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DFS Week 3

Sorry for the lack of an update last week – I ended up breaking just about even on Draftkings. With very little return in the way of cash games but did have a best place finish of 5k out of 277k in the millionaire event. I had a lot of exposure in cash games to Green, Brown and Robinson which killed me somewhat.

This week I’m going to tighten up my events and put a little more thought into matters. Will probably play it 80/20 in terms of cash games as if you make the top 50% you double your investment. The tournaments are much harder to win a decent pot with and even that 5k only returned $40 profit. They are far too top heavy bit like poker tournaments I guess.

Anyhow this week here is my main tournament lineup. Personally I’m going to use the tournaments as taking more risks and then the cash games much more solid. High-ownership in the cash games isn’t a problem but in the tournament you need a few contrarian plays. My favourite this week is Wilson/Graham from Seahawks. It’s not been a good week for the Hawks what with losing to the terrible Rams and then losing a draft pick. I expect them to come out really firing against the old foes the 49ers – who play fast and last week showed us are liable to concede stacks of points. I also want to ensure I have an investment in the Colts/Chargers game and then a few more players who could have low ownership. Firstly Allen Robinson who has had a couple of tough weeks but I’m expecting him to bounce back this week and DeSean Jackson who for some reason always seems to get under-owned despite his propensity to score an 80 yard TD each week. Benjamin’s ownership will be high but he is the top pass catching option in that game with Jason Verrett on Hilton. I want pass catching backs against bad run defences hence the choices of David Johnson, Coleman and Murray. The Cowboys are my favourite defense this week. I also like the Dolphins naturally vs the Browns and Kessler but I’d expect a lot of players to be on the Dolphins. Bryan Hoyer on a short week appeals a lot.

Tournament line-up

Russell Wilson $7,100

David Johnson $7,700

DeMarco Murray $6,300

Allen Robinson £7,500

DeSean Jackson $5,900

Travis Benjamin $5,200

Jimmy Graham $3,000

Tevin Coleman $4,500

Cowboys $2,500

 

My cash game line ups will be based around the following players and I will be doing very little stacking here. The player I have pretty much everywhere is Stefon Diggs at $5,100. He and Bradford looked awesome the other night and the Panthers secondary is definitely not its strongest suit.

QB – Rivers, Ryan, Luck, Tannehill

RB – D Williams, CJ Anderson, Gordon, Forte, Elliott, Sproles, Riddick, Sims.

WR – Brown, Julio, Fitzgerald, Diggs, Benjamin, Cooks, Marvin Jones, Dorsett

TE – Witten, Walker, Pitta, Tamme

D – Dolphins, Bengals, Cowboys

 

Will try get some game picks up for Sunday as we now have a decent idea of how the teams are looking.

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NFL 2015 – Team by team Vegas win lines

In anticipation of the forthcoming NFL season which I’m going to look into detail a lot more – going to sling up some thoughts on the 32 teams regular season win lines. Will do them in batches of 5 so there will be 6 or so separate posts. Come the season itself I will try and put up selections each week – I don’t really see the point of plucking a Superbowl winner yet as basically the likely winners are all pretty short and won’t move much until the playoffs. A couple of teams who could trade lower than they are at the minute though are the Atlanta Falcons (55/1 on Betfair) and San Francisco 49ers (70/1 on Betfair) – yes there is a lot of hate about the Niners but they still have some pretty handy pieces – the defense despite losing a few players should still be more than competitive with Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis. While hate on Kaepernick all you want but it was only a few years back that he took them to the Super Bowl. Last year there was an incredible amount of talk coming out of the organisation with Harbaugh leaving – they will still be decent at home. I can see the Niners going 10-6 which will keep them competitively in the hunt for the playoffs. The Falcons division is pretty terrible and their problem last few years has been the defense – Dan Quinn should solve that somewhat. Julio and Ryan are always going to score points. The Falcons also have the easiest schedule this season on paper with their opponent win record from last season totalling 0.409%. Looking through their schedule I can see them also going 10-6 and winning that division which will lead to a home playoff game and the 55/1 should be a fair bit shorter.

Arizona Cardinals – Recommended bet Under +8.5 wins @ Evens (Paddy Power)

The Cardinals went 11-5 last year which was commendable with the sheer number of QBs they ended up playing – but it’s worth noting they play in the toughest division and last year they went 5-1 in games decided by less than eight points and games which were won in the fourth quarter – a few of those to swing the other way and they go 8-8. It also doesn’t help that they have lost Todd Bowles the defensive co-ordinator to the Jets and Antonio Cromartie and Dan Williams on defense. The Cardinals also have no real easy games at home – even if they go 3-3 in the division you wouldn’t pick Baltimore, New Orleans, Green Bay, Cincinnati and Minnesota as your other 5 home games.

Atlanta Falcons – Recommended bet Over +8.5 wins @ 20/23 (Bet 365) – Double Bet

I’ve already spoken in detail about the Falcons and expect them to reach double figures in wins as such I expect them to beat the 8.5 Vegas win line. As I say the coaching changes should help – Kyle Shanahan after all helped the Browns to a 7-9 record last season. The schedule really is the icing on top. Even if they have some shocking games this will be within reach.

Baltimore Ravens – Recommended bet Over +9 wins @ 5/6 (Bet Victor)

The Ravens without fail are one of the more competitive NFL teams year-in year-out they have one of the best head coaches and adding Marc Trestman to the mix should ensure continuity on offense. Jimmy Smith coming back from injury will help boost a leaky secondary and while the 9 win line is high the Ravens have averaged 10.4 over the last five years. The schedule isn’t the easiest one but the Ravens do have some nice easy games on the block including the Browns twice, Jacksonville and Oakland.

Buffalo Bills – Recommended bet Over 8.5 wins @ Evens (Ladbrokes)

The Bills are a tough team to gauge as they tend to usually be underestimated and could throw in a right shocker. However, last year they went 9-7 and this season they look a better team having added playmakers in Percy Harvin and LeSean McCoy and kept the defense intact which was by most metrics one of the best last season. Having Rex Ryan run the defense should make it even more fierce and I don’t imagine the Bills will be blown away in any games. Offensively Greg Roman is an improvement as OC – a lot depends on the QB situation but they do have weapons with the two mentioned and Sammy Watkins. The NFC East could be a right old ding dong this year with the Patriots losing Brady for the first four games.

Carolina Panthers – Recommended bet Under 8.5 wins @ 4/5 (BetVictor)

The Panthers ended last season in excellent form winning the NFC South and then beating the Cardinals in a playoff game as a result they face having to play the three other NFC divisional winners from last year. I think they’ll be competitive but in a division where I expect the Falcons and Saints to improve and to a degree the Buccaneers (they won’t go 2-14) then I’m struggling to see the Panthers winning ten games. Nine is possible – but I think I’d take my chances on eight or less a lot of the time. To get to nine I think they’ll have to win the division which I don’t see happening.

Next up – Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos.

Patriots-Falcons-NFL-September-2013_


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NFL Week 5 Lines – Part 2

Hope you all had a successful day punting on the horses today, one blogger definitely did in Ian over at www.waywardlad.blogspot.com who found two very nice winners at 14/1 and 9/2. His blog his worth following over the winter as he puts up selections over the jumps.

 

Moving on to part 2 of the Week 5 lines. I’ll try not to bleat on so much –

 

Tennessee Titans (3-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) – Line (Titans +3) Over/Under (39.5)

The Steelers have doubts over QB Ben Roethlisberger and key running back Rashard Mendenhall, with further defensive injuries to the squad, added to a perceived lack of firepower has caused many observers to believe the team is not the same which reached last year’s Superbowl final. Defensively they appear sound – albeit not in Fantasy terms –  thanks in part to their only home match against the Seahawks in which they won (24-0). The Titans for their part are an improving side but also have injury problems with wide receiver Kenny Britt out for the season, a lot rests on Chris Johnson’s shoulder and he’ll be pleased to take on a defense which lies 11th in conceding rushing yards. It’s a tough match up because I think a Steelers team with a fit and on fire QB and Mendenhall wins and they need to win to keep pace with the Ravens in the AFC North. The points spread doesn’t grab me either way it looks about right. No bet match mainly due to the injury situation.

Score Prediction Steelers 22 – Titans 17

No Bet

 

Green Bay Packers (4-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-2) – Line (Falcons +5.5) Over/Under 53.5

A repeat of the playoff match last season in which Green Bay slaughtered the Falcons on their way to lifting the bowl, the Packers have started this season in terrific mood having beating the Panthers and Bears away and scored heavily in beating the Saints and Broncos at home. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers remains a machine and one who has many weapons to choose from, the Falcons for their part have stuttered so far this season and will have a fight on their hands to stay pace with New Orleans and Tampa in their division. Green Bay have scored an average of 37pts so far this season, against the Falcons 22.5pts. They also concede a fair few points and although this points spread looks right, Atlanta have given up the 8th most passing yards which should play into Rodgers hands to spread it around. This may prove to be the holders toughest test so far but the Falcons don’t look as strong this season and to beat the spread they’d have to put a better fight than the Bears who were beaten 17-27 in Chicago. Worth noting Chicago beat the Falcons 30-12 in week one. I think this one is another win for Green Bay.

Score Prediction Falcons 20 – Packers 33

Back Packers -5.5 @10/11

 

San Diego Chargers (3-1) @ Denver Broncos (1-3) – Line (Broncos +4) Over/Under 46

San Diego have scored an average of 22pts and conceded 21pts. Denver scored 20pts against 27.8pts against. San Diego have a few injury concerns not least to Gates who is unlikely to play again until after the bye week and Vincent Jackson their number one wide receiver. The Broncos are better at defending the run than the pass so far this year so they are problem areas, I’d also be concerned that Philip Rivers the Chargers QB has yet to hit top gear, they also have the propensity to flatter to deceive and have played three very poor sides to get their current record in the Vikings, Chiefs and Dolphins – note mind the Broncos are also a poor side. Looking at the line though I think you need to try and ignore the Broncos result last week against the Packers where they were stuffed out of sight prior to that they beat the (2-2) Bengals and narrowly lost at home to Oakland before losing at Tennessee again by only three points. It’s probably a 50/50 call but I feel the Broncos will keep this one tight especially being a divisional match up. I also think the scoring line may be a little high only just mind. Going to have a stab ..

Score Prediction Broncos 19 – Chargers 22

Back Broncos +4 @ 10/11

Back Under  46 @ 10/11

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-1) – Line (Buccaneers +3) Over/Under 41

Tampa come off a short week having faced the Colts in Florida on Monday night, they remain on a decent streak however having won their last three since an opening day loss to the Lions which doesn’t look as bad as it did then, fair to say they don’t get the recognition they deserve. The 49ers are a team I’d suggest are in transition the defense is solid and they took advantage of some sloppy play from the Eagles in the last half in week 4. They are also on a decent streak since having lost to the Cowboys in Week 2. Points wise Tampa average 21pts for them and 19pts against, whilst the 49ers have 23pts for and 18pts against, I’d argue though that the 49ers have played a couple of flashier sides in the Eagles and Cowboys who tend to feature in high scoring games. This match up reminds me somewhat of the 49ers game in Cincinnati where they won 13-8. Tampa are a doughty side but one who don’t have any stand out weapons, it will be close however I’d lean to Tampa covering the spread ahead of probably playing the points although it will be around the 40 mark.

Score Prediction 49ers 19 – Buccaneers 22

Back Buccaneers +3 @ 5/6

 

New York Jets (2-2) @ New England Patriots (3-1) – Line (Jets +9.5) Over/Under 49.5

You know what you’re going to get with Patriots, lots of yardage, lots of touchdowns and lots of points. The Jets for their part have also featured in three high scoring games, the only other one was where they themselves won (32-3) over the Jaguars. The Patriots are currently second in points scored and are some 50 yards clear of their nearest rivals in the league for passing yardage. The Jets passing defense should be noted is the second best currently so this may draw that stat back slightly albeit the Patriots feature highly on rushing yards also. The Jets so far have been weak on the run which should suit a high scoring game as the Patriots have given up most yards to the pass. Anyways what I’m getting at is with 7 of the games played featuring these teams so far this season above 50 points the 49.5pts is worth taking on. I’d expect a shoot-out in the air and although I think the Patriots will win the Jets have a fair bit to prove after a poor performance last week.

Score Predictions Patriots 38 – Jets 27

Back Over 49.5 @ 10/11

 

Seattle Seahawks (1-3) @ New York Giants (3-1) – Line (Seahawks +9.5) Over/Under 43.5

The Giants are a dogged outfit and this game should see them go to 4-1 in the standings and look in excellent health in the NFC East. The Seahawks are a poor side especially away from home having won only 5 matches on the road since the 2007 season. The Giants have played one match at home this year beaten the equally poor Rams 28-16 they have since defeated Arizona and Philadelphia on the road. The Seahawks on the road have been smashed by the Steelers without scoring a point and then beaten comprehensively by the 49ers by 16pts. The spread of 9.5pts looks small considering those two defeats and with the Giants running at (3-1). Not going to look at the points spread as it could go either way I’d side towards the unders mainly based on the Seahawks poor average on the road but it’s tight. I do think the Giants are the play and they will win relatively convincingly as they’re a better team than the 49ers and Steelers who both stuffed the Seahawks by more than the spread.

Score Predictions Giants 28 – Seahawks 14

Back Giants -9.5 @ 10/11

 

 

Will look at the Monday game nearer the time. So far 13pts staked we’ll see come Monday how we fare!

Away to London tomorrow so may not be an update before then, although I’ll try and have a look at Saturday’s racing as we have some top class juvenile action.

 

Cheers.