Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness


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DFS Week 3

Sorry for the lack of an update last week – I ended up breaking just about even on Draftkings. With very little return in the way of cash games but did have a best place finish of 5k out of 277k in the millionaire event. I had a lot of exposure in cash games to Green, Brown and Robinson which killed me somewhat.

This week I’m going to tighten up my events and put a little more thought into matters. Will probably play it 80/20 in terms of cash games as if you make the top 50% you double your investment. The tournaments are much harder to win a decent pot with and even that 5k only returned $40 profit. They are far too top heavy bit like poker tournaments I guess.

Anyhow this week here is my main tournament lineup. Personally I’m going to use the tournaments as taking more risks and then the cash games much more solid. High-ownership in the cash games isn’t a problem but in the tournament you need a few contrarian plays. My favourite this week is Wilson/Graham from Seahawks. It’s not been a good week for the Hawks what with losing to the terrible Rams and then losing a draft pick. I expect them to come out really firing against the old foes the 49ers – who play fast and last week showed us are liable to concede stacks of points. I also want to ensure I have an investment in the Colts/Chargers game and then a few more players who could have low ownership. Firstly Allen Robinson who has had a couple of tough weeks but I’m expecting him to bounce back this week and DeSean Jackson who for some reason always seems to get under-owned despite his propensity to score an 80 yard TD each week. Benjamin’s ownership will be high but he is the top pass catching option in that game with Jason Verrett on Hilton. I want pass catching backs against bad run defences hence the choices of David Johnson, Coleman and Murray. The Cowboys are my favourite defense this week. I also like the Dolphins naturally vs the Browns and Kessler but I’d expect a lot of players to be on the Dolphins. Bryan Hoyer on a short week appeals a lot.

Tournament line-up

Russell Wilson $7,100

David Johnson $7,700

DeMarco Murray $6,300

Allen Robinson £7,500

DeSean Jackson $5,900

Travis Benjamin $5,200

Jimmy Graham $3,000

Tevin Coleman $4,500

Cowboys $2,500

 

My cash game line ups will be based around the following players and I will be doing very little stacking here. The player I have pretty much everywhere is Stefon Diggs at $5,100. He and Bradford looked awesome the other night and the Panthers secondary is definitely not its strongest suit.

QB – Rivers, Ryan, Luck, Tannehill

RB – D Williams, CJ Anderson, Gordon, Forte, Elliott, Sproles, Riddick, Sims.

WR – Brown, Julio, Fitzgerald, Diggs, Benjamin, Cooks, Marvin Jones, Dorsett

TE – Witten, Walker, Pitta, Tamme

D – Dolphins, Bengals, Cowboys

 

Will try get some game picks up for Sunday as we now have a decent idea of how the teams are looking.

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NFL DFS – Week 1

Howdy,

Long time no see.

Thought I would pop back in with the NFL season just about to start and the football season beginning to get into a bit more swing. This year instead of picking NFL games as we go (not that I did that last year) I thought it would be more helpful perhaps to list my favourite DFS (Daily Fantasy Selection) plays each week and post up some teams. After all I’m kinda addicted to fantasy football, fantasy NFL what not …

I’m going to be playing on the Draft Kings UK site – you can find a link on my Twitter and it’s also here. https://www.draftkings.co.uk/r/LonesomePundit

 

Week 1 –

Looking through this section of games I want a fair bit of exposure to the games in Indianapolis, New Orleans and Dallas. Historically all those teams involved in those games are not great defensively so I would lean to those games being more shoot outs. The Cardinals v Patriots game is one I really feel could end up lower scoring than expected with New England having to roll with Garrapolo. My favourite stacks this week are Stafford + Marvin Jones (Colts secondary in a bad way), Manning + OBJ (Pretty standard), Luck + Moncrief – predicting a high score game there.

Players I want to have in as many lineups as possible include Spencer Ware ($4,000), M Jones ($4,800) and Moncrief ($6,000).

QB wise – I would lean towards those games where it looks to be high scoring. Prescott is a decent cheap option but I’m favouring the likes of Luck, Manning, Stafford. Rodgers could easily light up Jacksonville also. I would look at avoiding Newton.

Running back wise I have looked with my teams at getting one RB who is relatively expensive Miller or Elliott and then some cheaper options Jennings, Ware, Mathews. I’m fading Gurley at 49ers as I feel that could end up a defensive slog fest around 15-12. Other running backs I would look at avoiding are David Johnson, McCoy and Lacy. Where possible I’d lean to using the flex as a wide receiver as they tend to score the bigger points (20+), running backs bit more consistent but you want to shoot for the stars.

Wide receivers I think it makes sense to pay up for the quality where best possible – so Brown, Julio and OBJ are in a number of my teams. I’m also using Watkins (Ravens secondary wasn’t great last year), Marvin Jones, Moncrief and Lockett (Big play ability) in several teams. Tajae Sharpe ($3,000) is a worthwhile consideration for a cheap flex to accomodate some of the bigger names.

WRs I’m fading at this point include Hopkins (think Houston run all over Bears – not confident in Osweiler), Dez Bryant (mainly due to workload – think they run more), AJ Green (Revis Island) and Amari Cooper. In essence I would try and get two of OBJ, Julio or Brown and pair them with a lower rated stud in a predicted high scoring game.

TE – Gronk at his $7,400 is a fade for me. Especially with Garrapolo throwing the nut. I would lean towards some lower options here including Walford, Dwayne Allen, McDonald and Virgil Green.

DST – Browns ($2,300) – Carson Wentz. Texans, Eagles, Giants also teams I like.

 

Here is my team for the $5m Millionaire event.

Eli Manning (QB), Lamar Miller (RB), Spencer Ware (RB), O. Beckham Jr. (WR), Tyler Lockett (WR), Donte Moncrief (WR), Clive Walford (TE), Marvin Jones Jr. (FLEX), Texans (DST)

 

Will post some thoughts on the actual games Friday/Saturday. Panthers @ Broncos tomorrow.