Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness


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The good, the bad and the bloody frustrating.

Recap of week 5 on DraftKings – in truth it was a week that promised so much and delivered so little. I probably won’t go into as much depth usually but got a bit carried away!!!

 

My cash line-ups on the whole performed pretty poorly which considering the amount they scored was a tad disappointing.

 

Here is a good an example of how I managed to get screwed over somewhat.

dk1

I had this line-up in four head to heads and lost 50% of them. It did also cash in a 50/50 and do ok in a GPP. But 173.4 points was good enough for 2,304 of 35,294 in that event so I feel a little frustrated that it didn’t perform better in cash games. Every head to head I played which scored less than 150 lost – which goes to show that a lot of the chalky plays all paid off. The previous week 75% of those line-ups won. It has me questioning the wisdom of what events to actually play and maybe I should navigate more towards a 60/40 split and play a few more guaranteed tournaments. Or it might be a case of needing a lot more data.

 

Looking at the tourneys I wanted to try and get a better split in these where I had more teams scoring 180 and more scoring 100. i.e. taking more risks. I think that worked as an aside here in the $1.35m prize event – I had five entries and cashed with four. Scores were 182.3, 174.5, 166.9, 151.7 (just cashed), and 111 (blame AJ Green). I’m quite happy with the way the GPPs went although a few of them were sitting very pretty after the early games and then blew out rather. If Beckham, Lacy, Anderson and Jeremy Hill had actually done anything I would have made a decent score.

 

What worked cash games –

 

Based on trying to get 3x value here is how I got on with my favourite selections last week. The 3x is a good indicator as you have $50,000 to spend each week and getting to 150 points especially in cash is near enough the cut off line. Last week it was 140 – this week higher in some events. In the head to head events you take the rough with the smooth. The percentage figures here are from a $5 giant double up with 40,229 entrants.

 

QB

 

Roethlisberger 33.2DK points (43%) – this was definitely a chalky play with nearly half of the field playing. Big Ben cost $7.2K so he returned nearly five times value. Sometimes it pays to just go with the obvious and not be fancy at QB. Big Ben at home is always in play.

Brady 32.64DK (11.4%) – again a reasonably high number on Tom Brady and again he paid off scoring four times value. The other QBs to do well were Carr, Rivers and Luck – Mariota also but such low ownership.

Wentz 17.92DK (5.7%) – Wentz had an ok game but missed out reaching 3x value so really was a bust.

I had a few line-ups with Derek Anderson in and he had an absolute stinker. I definitely think playing the chalk at QB in cash is sensible. Teams with Big Ben on the whole had a great chance of cashing.

 

RB

Bell  24.4DK (25.4%) – Scary to think that Bell has yet to score a TD since his return. At $7.5k he beat his value and isn’t far off becoming an Antonio Brown every week starter.

Gordon 14.7DK (12.6%) – This didn’t work and Gordon is someone I’m avoiding in cash for the foreseeable future. He is TD dependent for me at present.

Murray 21.7DK (10.2%) – DeMarco just fell short of his 3x value but he had a great game and has a high floor at present with 5 catches out of the backfield. He is one worth considering weekly although the price is steep.

Freeman 21.3DK (4.9%) – Devonta worked out well as he got 4x his value and looked great doing so. Again he has a nice floor with the passes. Coleman is also worth watching.

Washington 10.2DK (47.4%) – Again nearly half the field played this chalky play. At 10.2DK points he reached his 3x value level but wouldn’t have been winning many events on his own. The Raiders backfield is cheap but is somewhat of a mess in terms of usage. Jalen Richard was better this week, Washington maybe next or Olawale.

West 10.9DK (8.9%) – This was just so frustrating. I think it was a sound pick and West actually played well but at $4.8k it didn’t pay off because of dumb coaching.

McKinnon 5.6DK (62.5%) – Well look at that a complete egg only just getting over 1x value but with 62% of the field playing him. Fading the chalk works at times. He only caught one pass also so there is a substantial floor here. Unlike with someone like Riddick or even Bobby Rainey who catches passes out of the backfield. That said McKinnon remains someone to monitor. Asiata also had a nice game.

 

Some of the players I missed which hurt were Howard who was owned by 63.4% of this field and scored 28.3DK points, Riddick 26.2DK points but surprisingly only 5.5% ownership and Elliott who racked up 35.1DK points but crazily only 1.7% ownership. Zeke is worth it for his upside. McCoy has also performed really well since the change of OC.

 

WR

Brown 22.8DK (51.6%) – Half of the field but he didn’t make 3x value – it’s tough to fade Antonio but at his price it’s definitely not worth having full exposure … I think

Marshall 28.4DK (30.1%) – This one worked and Marshall returned 4x value. WRs playing against the Steelers are always noting as they just have to catch up.

Cooper 30.8DK (6.4%) – Probably my favourite call of the week. Returned decent value and low ownership.

Crabtree 13.7DK (8.3%) – Surprised Crabtree’s ownership wasn’t higher but it was Cooper’s week this time so this was a bust

Steve Smith 5.9DK (13.3%) – Injured …. Shit happens

T Williams 25.7DK (2.3%) – Paid off this one.

T Benjamin 21.7DK (5.6%) – Again another which returned better than 3x value

Woods 4.6DK (6.4%) – Another failure. Catching two passes is going to do that.

Pryor Sr 10.3DK (2.4%) – Well I read that one totally wrong! Pryor maybe just worth it for the GPPs now his value has shot up.

 

On the whole not too bad. Looking at some of the higher entrants players which outperformed included Hilton, Coates and Meredith. But a lot of the teams at the top had Brown, Marshall and Cooper.

Some of the bigger named WRs laid goose eggs compared to the price and they are on the avoid for cash games – looking at Julio, ODB, Hopkins and Green.

 

TE

Ertz 6.7DK (52.3%) Egg laid. Only saving grace was that over half the field went that way. For 0.2k you could have zagged to Bennett and cashed everywhere.

Brate 4.8DK (5.2%) Yep that didn’t work either. Trying to be clever look a moron.

My fades of Gronk and Olsen were not great the latter scored a whopping 30.1DK. Ravens are decent against TE so was wise to fade Reed.

 

 

If I get a chance this week I’ll look at the GPPs also but I think there are some ideas for future cash games there.

 

QB – pay up for class

RB – concentrate on pass catchers at lower prices – higher floor

WR – zig on Brown sometimes – target Steelers games mind

TE – are a headfuck

 


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Week 5 – Game Bets

Early games.

Miami – Tennessee

DeMarco Murray under 80.5 yards @ 5/6

Baltimore – Washington

DeSean Jackson anytime TD @ 15/8

Terrance West anytime TD @ 6/4

Detroit – Philadelphia

Zach Ertz anytime TD @ 5/2

Jordan Matthews anytime TD @ 13/10

Cleveland – New England

Isaiah Crowell over 65.5 yards@ 10/11

Martellus Bennett anytime TD @ 12/5

Minnesota – Houston

Jerick McKinnon over 68.5 yards @ 5/6

Stefon Diggs under 60.5 yards @ 5/6

Pittsburgh – New York Jets

Ryan Fitzpatrick over 231.5 yards @ 5/6

Le’Veon Bell under 88.5 yards @ 5/6

Sammie Coates over 42.5 yards @ 5/6

 


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GPP line-ups Week 5

GPP line-ups this week – going with a bit of risk in a few of these.

 

In an ideal world I want to avoid scoring the run of the mill 130 and just cashing. I’d like some of these to score 170+ and then some less than 100 where I’ve taken on the risk and they’ve blown out. My favourite stack this week is the Manning/Beckham one and then Dalton/Green. I think also it’s worth looking at a lot of low priced RBs and then pay up at WRs.

 

Tournament One – Roethlisberger, CJ Anderson, Blount, Beckham Jr, Coates, Hilton, Hill (flex), Bennett, Dolphins

Tournament Two – Manning, Powell, West, Beckham Jr, Nelson, D Thomas, Ertz, Parker (flex), Vikings

Tournament Three – Brady, CJ Anderson, Howard, Cooper, Matthews, Sanders, Bennett, Washington (flex), Titans

Tournament Four – Dalton, Washington, J White, Cruz, AJ Green, Nelson, Tye, A Brown (flex), Ravens

Tournament Five – Carr, Gordon, West, Crabtree, AJ Green, Smith Sr, Bennett, Inman (flex), Colts

Tournament Six – Wentz, CJ Anderson, Freeman, K Benjamin, Butler, Matthews, Brate, Evans (flex), Steelers

 

The only other one I’ve slung out is one which started Thursday and I’ve already had David Johnson score 36.5 points.

 

Tournament under way – Roethlisberger, Johnson (36.5), Washington, Brown, Coates, T Williams (SD), Ertz, Marshall (flex), Colts – as you can see with this I’m banking on PIT v NYJ being a 55-40 point barn burner!


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DFS Week 5

Just going to post my line-ups for this week.

Have created 3 cash line-ups I will be playing these in 50/50s and H2H events. This will represent about 75% of the bankroll being used this week. I will also post five tournament line-ups and I will submit these in three tournaments each. I think last few weeks I’ve been making too many line-ups and spreading myself too wide. Tournament line-ups I’ll edit nearer the time.

For more actual thoughts I will post these on Twitter (or have already). This is more just for record taking and visibility.

Favourite cash plays – expecting these to be pretty highly owned we can check back Monday.

QB – Brady, Roethlisberger, Wentz

Quick hits – Jets are dreadful against the pass, Big Ben money at home. His floor for me is 250 yards and 2 TDs and the ceiling is much more. Brady well is just going to tear up the league I expect his ownership to be around 30%. Wentz plays the Lions who are giving up an average of 3Tds per game to opposing QBs. I’d also consider Lynch (Falcons terrible against the pass) and Hoyer (Colts also dreadful). My reservation with Hoyer is injuries on Bears side of the ball.

RB – Bell, Gordon, Murray, Freeman, Washington, West, McKinnon

Bell is Bell. Although Jets are tough against the run, with Bell lining up as receiver he could net 12 points from catches alone. Gordon yardage has dried up but Oakland are giving up an average of 135 ypg. Murray quietly is having a very nice start to the season and dominated snaps last weeks. Titans rushing for average of 127 ypg expect DeMarco to catch 4 to 5 passes also. Freeman should get more work with Coleman unlikely to play so much. He is my favourite RB around $5k. Broncos have given up 114 ypg and 1.3tds. Washington and West are both plays which I expect to get near triple value. Redskins terrible against the run and with bad weather forecast expect Ravens to run plenty. Oakland run well, San Diego are leaky against it. Latavius out. McKinnon = volume, price.

WR – Brown, Marshall, Cooper/Crabtree, Steve Smith, Tyrrell Williams/Benjamin, Woods, Pryor Sr.

Antonio Brown much like Bell is a lock here. Especially this week. He will be the one player I have 100% exposure to in cash games. Marshall is a nice correlation play in the PIT v NYJ game. He has been getting targets but not catching everything. Steelers give up yards and garbage time counts. The OAK-SD game is one I’m targeting on the ground and in air essentially I just think there will be points. With Verrett out expecting Cooper to bounce back. Defenses should begin to key in more on Crabtree. Steve Smith has ascended back to become the Ravens top WR and this week I’d expect him to put on a show for Josh Norman. I’d limit exposure slightly with him because of weather and fact I expect Ravens to try to run a lot. Woods is the only face in town in the Buffalo passing attack and is cheap. Pryor is getting more expensive but is still value. Browns will have to catch up.

TE – Ertz, Brate – looking to fade Olsen, Reed, Gronk.

Tight End is pretty shallow for me this week. The Bucs feature the TE plenty and Panthers have struggled to defend the position so Brate is nice at the price. Ertz if fully fit is a great play against the Lions. The Falcons have given up the most points at the position, but the Broncos TEs are a bit of a hot mess. Worth noting next week though Jimmy Graham. As for the fades – Ravens and Tampa both stingy to that position average 3 DK points. Houston likewise are pretty good defending the TE so I’d veer away from Rudolph. Gronk I’m ignoring until he shows he is healthy.

D – My favourite defense this week is the Vikings. But in truth I like a few of the lower priced ones in games which might be affected by the weather. Fumbles a plenty! So Dolphins, Titans, Ravens, Redskins.

Cash line-up 1: B Roethlisberger, D Washington, T West, D Freeman (flex), A Brown, A Cooper, B Marshall, C Brate, Titans

Cash line-up 2: T Brady, J McKinnon, M Gordon, D Freeman (flex), A Brown, T Pryor Sr., R Woods, Z Ertz, Vikings.

Cash line-up 3: C Wentz, L Bell, D Murray, D Washington (flex), A Brown, S Smith Sr., T Williams (SD), Z Ertz, Bears.


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NFL 2015 – Team by team Vegas win lines

In anticipation of the forthcoming NFL season which I’m going to look into detail a lot more – going to sling up some thoughts on the 32 teams regular season win lines. Will do them in batches of 5 so there will be 6 or so separate posts. Come the season itself I will try and put up selections each week – I don’t really see the point of plucking a Superbowl winner yet as basically the likely winners are all pretty short and won’t move much until the playoffs. A couple of teams who could trade lower than they are at the minute though are the Atlanta Falcons (55/1 on Betfair) and San Francisco 49ers (70/1 on Betfair) – yes there is a lot of hate about the Niners but they still have some pretty handy pieces – the defense despite losing a few players should still be more than competitive with Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis. While hate on Kaepernick all you want but it was only a few years back that he took them to the Super Bowl. Last year there was an incredible amount of talk coming out of the organisation with Harbaugh leaving – they will still be decent at home. I can see the Niners going 10-6 which will keep them competitively in the hunt for the playoffs. The Falcons division is pretty terrible and their problem last few years has been the defense – Dan Quinn should solve that somewhat. Julio and Ryan are always going to score points. The Falcons also have the easiest schedule this season on paper with their opponent win record from last season totalling 0.409%. Looking through their schedule I can see them also going 10-6 and winning that division which will lead to a home playoff game and the 55/1 should be a fair bit shorter.

Arizona Cardinals – Recommended bet Under +8.5 wins @ Evens (Paddy Power)

The Cardinals went 11-5 last year which was commendable with the sheer number of QBs they ended up playing – but it’s worth noting they play in the toughest division and last year they went 5-1 in games decided by less than eight points and games which were won in the fourth quarter – a few of those to swing the other way and they go 8-8. It also doesn’t help that they have lost Todd Bowles the defensive co-ordinator to the Jets and Antonio Cromartie and Dan Williams on defense. The Cardinals also have no real easy games at home – even if they go 3-3 in the division you wouldn’t pick Baltimore, New Orleans, Green Bay, Cincinnati and Minnesota as your other 5 home games.

Atlanta Falcons – Recommended bet Over +8.5 wins @ 20/23 (Bet 365) – Double Bet

I’ve already spoken in detail about the Falcons and expect them to reach double figures in wins as such I expect them to beat the 8.5 Vegas win line. As I say the coaching changes should help – Kyle Shanahan after all helped the Browns to a 7-9 record last season. The schedule really is the icing on top. Even if they have some shocking games this will be within reach.

Baltimore Ravens – Recommended bet Over +9 wins @ 5/6 (Bet Victor)

The Ravens without fail are one of the more competitive NFL teams year-in year-out they have one of the best head coaches and adding Marc Trestman to the mix should ensure continuity on offense. Jimmy Smith coming back from injury will help boost a leaky secondary and while the 9 win line is high the Ravens have averaged 10.4 over the last five years. The schedule isn’t the easiest one but the Ravens do have some nice easy games on the block including the Browns twice, Jacksonville and Oakland.

Buffalo Bills – Recommended bet Over 8.5 wins @ Evens (Ladbrokes)

The Bills are a tough team to gauge as they tend to usually be underestimated and could throw in a right shocker. However, last year they went 9-7 and this season they look a better team having added playmakers in Percy Harvin and LeSean McCoy and kept the defense intact which was by most metrics one of the best last season. Having Rex Ryan run the defense should make it even more fierce and I don’t imagine the Bills will be blown away in any games. Offensively Greg Roman is an improvement as OC – a lot depends on the QB situation but they do have weapons with the two mentioned and Sammy Watkins. The NFC East could be a right old ding dong this year with the Patriots losing Brady for the first four games.

Carolina Panthers – Recommended bet Under 8.5 wins @ 4/5 (BetVictor)

The Panthers ended last season in excellent form winning the NFC South and then beating the Cardinals in a playoff game as a result they face having to play the three other NFC divisional winners from last year. I think they’ll be competitive but in a division where I expect the Falcons and Saints to improve and to a degree the Buccaneers (they won’t go 2-14) then I’m struggling to see the Panthers winning ten games. Nine is possible – but I think I’d take my chances on eight or less a lot of the time. To get to nine I think they’ll have to win the division which I don’t see happening.

Next up – Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos.

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