Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

The good, the bad and the bloody frustrating.

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Recap of week 5 on DraftKings – in truth it was a week that promised so much and delivered so little. I probably won’t go into as much depth usually but got a bit carried away!!!

 

My cash line-ups on the whole performed pretty poorly which considering the amount they scored was a tad disappointing.

 

Here is a good an example of how I managed to get screwed over somewhat.

dk1

I had this line-up in four head to heads and lost 50% of them. It did also cash in a 50/50 and do ok in a GPP. But 173.4 points was good enough for 2,304 of 35,294 in that event so I feel a little frustrated that it didn’t perform better in cash games. Every head to head I played which scored less than 150 lost – which goes to show that a lot of the chalky plays all paid off. The previous week 75% of those line-ups won. It has me questioning the wisdom of what events to actually play and maybe I should navigate more towards a 60/40 split and play a few more guaranteed tournaments. Or it might be a case of needing a lot more data.

 

Looking at the tourneys I wanted to try and get a better split in these where I had more teams scoring 180 and more scoring 100. i.e. taking more risks. I think that worked as an aside here in the $1.35m prize event – I had five entries and cashed with four. Scores were 182.3, 174.5, 166.9, 151.7 (just cashed), and 111 (blame AJ Green). I’m quite happy with the way the GPPs went although a few of them were sitting very pretty after the early games and then blew out rather. If Beckham, Lacy, Anderson and Jeremy Hill had actually done anything I would have made a decent score.

 

What worked cash games –

 

Based on trying to get 3x value here is how I got on with my favourite selections last week. The 3x is a good indicator as you have $50,000 to spend each week and getting to 150 points especially in cash is near enough the cut off line. Last week it was 140 – this week higher in some events. In the head to head events you take the rough with the smooth. The percentage figures here are from a $5 giant double up with 40,229 entrants.

 

QB

 

Roethlisberger 33.2DK points (43%) – this was definitely a chalky play with nearly half of the field playing. Big Ben cost $7.2K so he returned nearly five times value. Sometimes it pays to just go with the obvious and not be fancy at QB. Big Ben at home is always in play.

Brady 32.64DK (11.4%) – again a reasonably high number on Tom Brady and again he paid off scoring four times value. The other QBs to do well were Carr, Rivers and Luck – Mariota also but such low ownership.

Wentz 17.92DK (5.7%) – Wentz had an ok game but missed out reaching 3x value so really was a bust.

I had a few line-ups with Derek Anderson in and he had an absolute stinker. I definitely think playing the chalk at QB in cash is sensible. Teams with Big Ben on the whole had a great chance of cashing.

 

RB

Bell  24.4DK (25.4%) – Scary to think that Bell has yet to score a TD since his return. At $7.5k he beat his value and isn’t far off becoming an Antonio Brown every week starter.

Gordon 14.7DK (12.6%) – This didn’t work and Gordon is someone I’m avoiding in cash for the foreseeable future. He is TD dependent for me at present.

Murray 21.7DK (10.2%) – DeMarco just fell short of his 3x value but he had a great game and has a high floor at present with 5 catches out of the backfield. He is one worth considering weekly although the price is steep.

Freeman 21.3DK (4.9%) – Devonta worked out well as he got 4x his value and looked great doing so. Again he has a nice floor with the passes. Coleman is also worth watching.

Washington 10.2DK (47.4%) – Again nearly half the field played this chalky play. At 10.2DK points he reached his 3x value level but wouldn’t have been winning many events on his own. The Raiders backfield is cheap but is somewhat of a mess in terms of usage. Jalen Richard was better this week, Washington maybe next or Olawale.

West 10.9DK (8.9%) – This was just so frustrating. I think it was a sound pick and West actually played well but at $4.8k it didn’t pay off because of dumb coaching.

McKinnon 5.6DK (62.5%) – Well look at that a complete egg only just getting over 1x value but with 62% of the field playing him. Fading the chalk works at times. He only caught one pass also so there is a substantial floor here. Unlike with someone like Riddick or even Bobby Rainey who catches passes out of the backfield. That said McKinnon remains someone to monitor. Asiata also had a nice game.

 

Some of the players I missed which hurt were Howard who was owned by 63.4% of this field and scored 28.3DK points, Riddick 26.2DK points but surprisingly only 5.5% ownership and Elliott who racked up 35.1DK points but crazily only 1.7% ownership. Zeke is worth it for his upside. McCoy has also performed really well since the change of OC.

 

WR

Brown 22.8DK (51.6%) – Half of the field but he didn’t make 3x value – it’s tough to fade Antonio but at his price it’s definitely not worth having full exposure … I think

Marshall 28.4DK (30.1%) – This one worked and Marshall returned 4x value. WRs playing against the Steelers are always noting as they just have to catch up.

Cooper 30.8DK (6.4%) – Probably my favourite call of the week. Returned decent value and low ownership.

Crabtree 13.7DK (8.3%) – Surprised Crabtree’s ownership wasn’t higher but it was Cooper’s week this time so this was a bust

Steve Smith 5.9DK (13.3%) – Injured …. Shit happens

T Williams 25.7DK (2.3%) – Paid off this one.

T Benjamin 21.7DK (5.6%) – Again another which returned better than 3x value

Woods 4.6DK (6.4%) – Another failure. Catching two passes is going to do that.

Pryor Sr 10.3DK (2.4%) – Well I read that one totally wrong! Pryor maybe just worth it for the GPPs now his value has shot up.

 

On the whole not too bad. Looking at some of the higher entrants players which outperformed included Hilton, Coates and Meredith. But a lot of the teams at the top had Brown, Marshall and Cooper.

Some of the bigger named WRs laid goose eggs compared to the price and they are on the avoid for cash games – looking at Julio, ODB, Hopkins and Green.

 

TE

Ertz 6.7DK (52.3%) Egg laid. Only saving grace was that over half the field went that way. For 0.2k you could have zagged to Bennett and cashed everywhere.

Brate 4.8DK (5.2%) Yep that didn’t work either. Trying to be clever look a moron.

My fades of Gronk and Olsen were not great the latter scored a whopping 30.1DK. Ravens are decent against TE so was wise to fade Reed.

 

 

If I get a chance this week I’ll look at the GPPs also but I think there are some ideas for future cash games there.

 

QB – pay up for class

RB – concentrate on pass catchers at lower prices – higher floor

WR – zig on Brown sometimes – target Steelers games mind

TE – are a headfuck

 

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