Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

DFS Week 5

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Just going to post my line-ups for this week.

Have created 3 cash line-ups I will be playing these in 50/50s and H2H events. This will represent about 75% of the bankroll being used this week. I will also post five tournament line-ups and I will submit these in three tournaments each. I think last few weeks I’ve been making too many line-ups and spreading myself too wide. Tournament line-ups I’ll edit nearer the time.

For more actual thoughts I will post these on Twitter (or have already). This is more just for record taking and visibility.

Favourite cash plays – expecting these to be pretty highly owned we can check back Monday.

QB – Brady, Roethlisberger, Wentz

Quick hits – Jets are dreadful against the pass, Big Ben money at home. His floor for me is 250 yards and 2 TDs and the ceiling is much more. Brady well is just going to tear up the league I expect his ownership to be around 30%. Wentz plays the Lions who are giving up an average of 3Tds per game to opposing QBs. I’d also consider Lynch (Falcons terrible against the pass) and Hoyer (Colts also dreadful). My reservation with Hoyer is injuries on Bears side of the ball.

RB – Bell, Gordon, Murray, Freeman, Washington, West, McKinnon

Bell is Bell. Although Jets are tough against the run, with Bell lining up as receiver he could net 12 points from catches alone. Gordon yardage has dried up but Oakland are giving up an average of 135 ypg. Murray quietly is having a very nice start to the season and dominated snaps last weeks. Titans rushing for average of 127 ypg expect DeMarco to catch 4 to 5 passes also. Freeman should get more work with Coleman unlikely to play so much. He is my favourite RB around $5k. Broncos have given up 114 ypg and 1.3tds. Washington and West are both plays which I expect to get near triple value. Redskins terrible against the run and with bad weather forecast expect Ravens to run plenty. Oakland run well, San Diego are leaky against it. Latavius out. McKinnon = volume, price.

WR – Brown, Marshall, Cooper/Crabtree, Steve Smith, Tyrrell Williams/Benjamin, Woods, Pryor Sr.

Antonio Brown much like Bell is a lock here. Especially this week. He will be the one player I have 100% exposure to in cash games. Marshall is a nice correlation play in the PIT v NYJ game. He has been getting targets but not catching everything. Steelers give up yards and garbage time counts. The OAK-SD game is one I’m targeting on the ground and in air essentially I just think there will be points. With Verrett out expecting Cooper to bounce back. Defenses should begin to key in more on Crabtree. Steve Smith has ascended back to become the Ravens top WR and this week I’d expect him to put on a show for Josh Norman. I’d limit exposure slightly with him because of weather and fact I expect Ravens to try to run a lot. Woods is the only face in town in the Buffalo passing attack and is cheap. Pryor is getting more expensive but is still value. Browns will have to catch up.

TE – Ertz, Brate – looking to fade Olsen, Reed, Gronk.

Tight End is pretty shallow for me this week. The Bucs feature the TE plenty and Panthers have struggled to defend the position so Brate is nice at the price. Ertz if fully fit is a great play against the Lions. The Falcons have given up the most points at the position, but the Broncos TEs are a bit of a hot mess. Worth noting next week though Jimmy Graham. As for the fades – Ravens and Tampa both stingy to that position average 3 DK points. Houston likewise are pretty good defending the TE so I’d veer away from Rudolph. Gronk I’m ignoring until he shows he is healthy.

D – My favourite defense this week is the Vikings. But in truth I like a few of the lower priced ones in games which might be affected by the weather. Fumbles a plenty! So Dolphins, Titans, Ravens, Redskins.

Cash line-up 1: B Roethlisberger, D Washington, T West, D Freeman (flex), A Brown, A Cooper, B Marshall, C Brate, Titans

Cash line-up 2: T Brady, J McKinnon, M Gordon, D Freeman (flex), A Brown, T Pryor Sr., R Woods, Z Ertz, Vikings.

Cash line-up 3: C Wentz, L Bell, D Murray, D Washington (flex), A Brown, S Smith Sr., T Williams (SD), Z Ertz, Bears.

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