The title says it all here.
I’ve been somewhat frustrated of late with personal bets mainly because I’ve lost a fair bit since Cheltenham – does seem like the withdrawal curse has hit in a bad way. Anyway I need to show some kind of self-control and I think the system bets will prove that, however, I also want to look at getting more into laying horses. This may just be a natural progression from having a bad few weeks picking winners but I think at times it’s easier to find a runner you want to take on and go from there – be it the trainer is out of form, trainer/jockey have poor win strike, horse up in class, horse at distance never run at previously, sire record at distance/course, amount of weight, competition of other runners and so on.
So what I’m going to do purely concentrating on the flat is look at finding a few I’d like to take on each day – from memory the flat/all weather was better and the jumps is coming to the end of the season now so I have no intention of really looking at that code. At the minute I probably won’t be using any hard old cash in here – times are hard but will be keeping a note of all selections. The other thing is I don’t intend to lay anything at bigger than 3/1 – (4.00 on Betfair).
I don’t mind explaining reason when time allows as it does today.
7.00 – Kempton.
I mulled over this for a while and ultimately decided I think Net Whizz at 2.72 is too short – I think he’s the most likely winner and will probably leave me with egg on my face but let’s see. My main reason for taking him on in here is the opposition there are a number of unexposed horses who could well prove ahead of their marks. Not least Net Whizz – but the same can be said of Rockalong, Sword In Hand (1-1 at Kempton), Lily Edge (2-2 at Kempton). In addition there are a number of doughty handicappers in form – Brocklebank, Flamborough Breeze, Lowther. The Noseda stable tends to always attract its fair share of hype and no doubt this horse has ability based on its maiden run and subsequent Kempton win, but it’s been off the track for 155 days and more notably of all the UK courses Noseda has the biggest level stakes loss (-£78.40) in the last five years at Kempton. Which is despite 17% of them winning, to me that reads they get over-bet (obvious with the stable) and when they do win they tend to be short. Buick is a notable booking but again his record on Noseda’s 4YO+ isn’t something to write home about with only a 7% record in the past 5 years and a level stakes loss of £12.
LAY – Net Whizz @ 2.72