Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Aintree Day 3

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Sorry this will be short and sweet.

A better day yesterday thanks mainly to Dynaste, I say better because the advised bets still ended up down -2pts. But I did place lay Flemenstar which just about got me back to parity.

Terrible news about Little Josh – I have nothing much to add bar commiserations. This is a good read http://gamblerfalls.com/a-horse-has-died-doing-what-they-love-racing-let-us-moan/

1.45 – I’m surprised Dodging Bullets isn’t shorter here, he’s a cut above most of this lot and although his performance in the Supreme was a let down. The ground can partly be attributed to that. Walsh back on board is a big positive for me. He’s 14lb clear on ratings (9lb with weight allowance). Up And Go is progressing nicely but Aaim to Prosper has been beaten 87l in the Albert Bartlett and then beaten in handicap off 130. Edouard and Utopie Des Bordes are not without chances but I am really sweet on Dodging Bullets. Step up in distance I reckon will actually suit.

Dodging Bullets 3pt win @ 11/4

2.15 – Overturn and Baily Green reoppose here and although there is no Simonsig in opposition I’d be keen to take on Overturn and Baily Green who was flattered by his proximity to Simonsig. His Excellency in third is no great shakes as a chaser. This is an easier race and Overturn could prove that Cheltenham run all wrong – will bomb out and could aim to make all, but I just think this will come too quick. Alderwoord represents JP McManus and McCoy he’s done nothing but improve and this is his time of year – won a Grade 1 and Grade 2 after winning at last year’s festival. I’d hope he’d be a little bigger because at 9/4 I don’t think he’s great value. Could well drift if money comes for Overturn. The one I like in here though is Sire Du Grugy who has been kept fresh since beating Cantlow in November (ground wouldn’t have suited also). His previous form behind Captain Conan reads even better – ahead of Third Intention, Rebel Rebellion and His Excellency. He was 9s when I tweeted the price earlier and is now 8s which I’d still take. I’d probably take 5s in truth.

Sire De Grugy 2pt win @ 9/1 – (8/1 available now)

2.50 – The Liverpool Hurdle is missing its talisman Big Buck’s which means something else has a chance to step up – the trends point to Solwhit but that’s mainly from Big Buck’s dominance. Solwhit is the class act in here and is 1/1 from at the track. His form stands up to the best scrutiny and he’s a worthy favourite. Celestial Halo is a tough hardened battler who will never lie down, but he’s not one I’d consider to be likely to improve past Solwhit. The ones I think can give him the most of a race are a couple of the young upstarts – African Gold and Holywell. The former has some very smart form in the book not least when finishing 4l behind At Fishers Cross on ground which wouldn’t have suited. The latter is a massive improver and although he’d have to improve more to win this I think he’s worth chancing for a few quid. Tricky stuff though ..

African Gold 1.5pt win @ 10/1 (price tweeted – is now 9/1)

Holywell 1pt win @ 14/1

3.25 – Time marches on. Tricky handicap – Battle Group could be ludicrously well handicapped on his showing the other day, infact you may just assume he’ll dot up based on that run. This though is over the bigger obstacles and although he may well be nearly a stone I’m passing him over. The two I like against the field and I’d rather explain a lot more but the broadband is doing my nut in so can’t get through the cards properly are Tour Des Champs …

Excuse this shitness by broadband is almost dead for some reason.

Tour Des Champs and Loch Ba

0.75pt both at 16/1 and 20/1.

National preview is here https://lonesomepundit.wordpress.com/2013/04/05/a-quick-guide-to-the-grand-national/

Rest tomorrow AM

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