Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Day 3 picks – 26pts up yesterday …

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Going to have keep this short and sweet. Fantastic day yesterday after The New One and Medinas did the business for the blog – I’m more chuffed with the former despite winning more of Medinas because it’s a great fillip for the Twiston Davies team and it goes to show that course form tends to come out ok when faced with hype. The whole of Ireland and what seemed like 80% of bloggers/tweeters were on Pont Alexandre so in a way it’s nice that the people who looked at it and said “unbeatable” etc are left to look with a little egg on face. I saw a few tweets recommending bets at 5/4 on him and then seemingly wanting money for it! Makes me laugh.

Anyway stop wittering – points wise up +26.25pt yesterday from 11.25pts staked so really pleasing. I also have to give another plug to https://watsonswinningpost.wordpress.com/ – I know this sounds somewhat mental! But Craig’s blog has put up over 600pts in about 4 weeks. If you follow every selection on the site and stake 15pts for the L15s –your staking nearly 50pts a day – but 600pts profit is top going in anyone’s book and all free! His blog landed a treble and a L15 yesterday so do please check it out and follow the blog and Craig on Twitter @WatsonsWP – deserves more followers and good banter. Worth also noting his main bets/L15s are from the other tracks away from Cheltenham at the minute so definitely taking advantage of Southwell and Hexhams etc.

On to today.

Jewson –
Let me leave this stat with you to mull over. David Pipe record in non-handicap races at Festival (1-57). Make you fancy Dynaste? Probably doesn’t help, but on the other hand he looks the clear favourite in here and has been beating everything comfortably out of sight for most of the season. He’s 9lb clear on official figures so looks to have a great chance and has form over CD. He’s a solid favourite. I’ve backed Module already in here last month at 14s and still fancy him to run a big race but that was before Dynaste was moved to this race so am somewhat peeved about it. The Irish have won the two renewals of the race and again look to have solid chances with Texas Jack worth noting – he was mixing it with the winner of the RSA – Lord Windermere – and Boston Bob, Lyreen Legend so is a pretty useful tool. In fact he’d previously beaten Lord Windermere twice. Aupcharlie has been narrowly beaten by both Tofino Bay and Back in Focus – I’d not have a lot to crab that form but both look dour stayers so I’d be a little disappointed if there’s nothing better than him in here, being beaten by a couple of four miles doesn’t make you scream to back him. Worth noting he ran well in the Champion Bumper a few years ago. Captain Conan has won 3/3 over fences but looks better over 2m – though he proved he stayed by winning last time out at Sandown in a complete bog. Better ground will help him but again I just don’t see him with enough to beat Dynaste. I don’t think Third Intention will turn the tables with Dynaste but he is three times the price. Benefficient is a horse I like a lot and his Newbury run behind Harry Topper is good form. At the prices I’d probably chance him with Module against the favourite though really I’d probably be better off not having a bet. Molotof is a big price also but has been soundly beaten by Dynaste this term.

0.5pt win Benefficent @ 20/1
Already advised 1pt win Module @ 14/1

One other thing worth doing for the fun of it – is using £10 of the Coral money on something with their offer if it loses they’ll refund it. Take advantage!

Pertemps –
These handicaps are always a minefield and trying to find something with stacks in hand is pretty nigh on impossible. I’ve had a few quid on Sam Winner but wouldn’t back him again at the current price and the longer Nicholls goes without a winner, the more I’d be against them – worth noting though that a couple in the Fred Winter ran well. Nicholls will tell you he’s well ahead of the handicapper and he may well be on Triumph form but that was two years ago – so it’s taken on his trust. The next in the market I also think is too short now Shutthefrontdoor and pretty much priced on reputation, he may have a little still in hand but he’s gone up a fair whack for winning narrowly. The second was beaten relatively easily next time out by the horse which finished last in the Neptune. Further down appears our old friend Captain Sunshine, who I’m convinced has a big handicap in him, but with the form of the stable (absolute rotten) I think I’ll let him win. The two I fancy are Ballybough Pat – good form earlier this year beat African Gold, second to Wonderful Charm, second in a G1 and Top of The Range – he sneaked in here after winning at the weekend and although that run may have taken its toll I feel has a decent enough chance for the dream pairing of Henderson/Gerarghy. By all means e/w if you want.

1pt win Ballybough Pat @ 16/1
1pt win Top Of The Range @ 16/1 – Ladbrokes

Ryanair –
I’ve backed Albertas Run and For Non Stop both at 20s in this. I’m not too interested in backing anything else or something at a shorter price. I think Albertas Run if anything is possible still overpriced at 12s but 335 days off the track obviously is a big concern. Given a choice between the principles I’d side with Cue Card.

World Hurdle –
Again another race I’ve already looked at and advised a bet on Bog Warrior – see (https://lonesomepundit.wordpress.com/2013/03/09/cheltenham-thoughts-supreme-world-hurdle/). That bet was really in the hope of soft ground which it looks unlikely to be. I think BW could still run well but I’d prefer to take another stab in truth – after all one has to play up the winnings! Oscar Whisky is the best horse in but still comes up with risk that this will be a hard run race and 3m may stretch his stamina. I think if your own prices like 7s then great – but 3/1 looks skinny. Reve De Sivola would have appealed in mud/soft. GMOOH looks too short and again looks a JP hype job. I’m guessing people think he’ll improve for going up to 3 miles. His festival record is really impressive but I couldn’t back him. Peddlers Cross I couldn’t entertain backing a McCain horse if you gave me £100. Solwhit was beaten easily by Bog Warrior – so really by elimination that leaves Wonderful Charm, Smad Place and the rest. Smad Place has been running poorly this year though Hutchison being back on board is a positive. He’s a far better jockey than Thornton in my eyes. And what do you with something like Wonderful Charm who is complete Nicholls hype but literally could be anything… Ah jeez. I don’t actually think I’ll side with anything else. If anything I might have more on Bog Warrior. This ground hopefully won’t be too troublesome and if you look through his form its top draw both hurdling and chasing and I think at the prices he’s probably still too big. All the hopes pinned on the Bog.

1pt win Bog Warrior @ 9/1

Byrne Group Plate –
No time to look at anything else in detail in truth. This race revolves around one runner and Pipe has won this for the last two years with a horse punted to the extreme. No one really knows how good this Ballynagour plot job is in truth – he beat Golden Chieftain by a country mile and yet that one dotted up the other day. Despite going up 21lb or whatever it was he could still be a fair bit ahead of the handicapper. My instinct would be to ignore him completely and hope he blows out.. 4s could probably like big. Trying to mull over something else that would like the track, distance, is in form and well handicapped looks a bit of a lost cause. A couple I’d back purely for interest and because they have good records at the course, in big fields and in Bless The Wings case on the ground. Are Poquelin and Bless The Wings neither probably has anything but I think on a going day they could outrun their prices and run into a place or give it a good crack. Poquelin after all was running off 170 last season and with Derham’s claim runs off 150.

0.5pt e/w Poquelin @ 25/1 – Paddy Power. Money back if Ballynagour wins
0.5pt e/w Bless The Wings @ 33/1 – Coral

Kim Muir –
Amateur jocks = recipe for anything. Super Duty is favourite in here and does have a decent jock on top. Though I’m avoiding McCain like the plague. Three against the field – no real time for explanations. I just like them. Vesper Bell ignore the last run, one before she gave an absolute drubbing to a horse who ran within a whisker of Boston Bob. Back in trip hopefully she’ll run well. Same Difference really progressive and ran well for a long way with Unioniste/Hadrian’s Approach. Saint Are – will win a decent race one day.

2pt win Vesper Bell @ 16/1
1pt win Same Difference @ 22/1 – Paddy Power
1pt win Saint Are @ 33/1

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