Lonesome Pundit

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Selections for tomorrow – Lonesome Pundit goes mad

15 Comments

Tipster Jones’s selections are in the previous post.

Lonesome Pundit selections

I have gone a bit mental here. Bit more about the Newbury runners than normal.
AP McCoy’s two rides at Warwick both eye-catching considering he’s then off to Newbury.

Newbury Selections.

Newbury 1.15 – Milord £1.25 Win @ 20/1
Newbury 1.15 – Leo Luna £1.5 Win @ 14/1
The favourite obviously has some decent looking form in the book beating MTOY. But the ground was absolutely rotten that day and he wouldn’t be one I’d want to take a short price about with the extra weight. Milord has been pitched into a couple of decent races so far but gets 16lb from the favourite and I think the stable think he’s pretty capable. Leo Luna is pretty taking on pedigree alone and albeit he didn’t pull up any trees for Stoute he could well prove pretty useful. The Nicholls runner is a complete unknown but is priced up on name. After all what price would Leo Luna be if he was trained by Nicholls.

Newbury 1.50 – Captain Sunshine £2.50 Win @ 9/1
Newbury 1.50 – Minella Class £1.50 Win @ 14/1
Hugely competitive handicap – nearly as much as the later race. Barafundle was one animal I really liked the look of but I do feel the handicapper has been overly harsh following his second at Doncaster (was mugged by a JP plot). The one I want to side with is Captain Sunshine who I backed a few weeks back before he fell at the last. Horse has plenty of ability and although he’s also been upped a few lb for a heart wrenching defeat I think 136 is well within his reach. Like all things I’d keep an eye on the Henderson/Nicholls runners and I’d also back Minella Class based on that. Henderson’s record when runners switch back from chases to hurdles is really impressive and this animal is a GD1 winner and was at one time rated 148 over the smaller obstacles off 132 here he’s worth a few quid.

Newbury 2.25 – Mail de Bievre £2.50 Win @ 8/1
This is merely a bet to waste a few quid. I think Conti ought to win but I wouldn’t back him at 4/7 with anyone’s money when his main aim is in 5 weeks. The one I’m chancing my arm with is the unknown quantity Mail de Bievre. On weights and supposed official rating he comes out second best. His French form is pretty hard to weigh up but back in the days he was running Rubi Ball pretty close who has close ties to Long Run and is still running to a high level in France. Look I’ll be honest I haven’t really much of a clue about this one but the stable/jockey alone and the unknown element are worth chancing.

Newbury 3.00 – Wishfull Thinking £5 Win @ 10/3
I wouldn’t be confident about this selection at all. The horse is capable of running a stinker or blowing them apart. Much like his runs this season. He is the though the class act and his main rival French Opera looks to me like he’s on a backward spiral. The Nicholls runner was beaten off 117 not so long ago and although he’s obviously improved and Walsh prefers him to Edgardo Sol I think that says more about the later in all honesty. Majala will run elsewhere, Tanks For That seems out of love with the game. So really it’s Wishfull by default.

Newbury 3.35 – Dark Lover £1.75 e/w @ 22/1 Stan James (4 Places Only). 18/1 Paddy Power (5). For purposes of Comp taking SJ.
Newbury 3.35 – Punjabi £1.50 e/w @ 20/1 Paddy Power
Newbury 3.35 – Baby Mix £1.25 e/w @ 33/1 William Hill (4 Places Only). 28/1 Skybet (5). Again for comp taking WH
Newbury 3.35 – Petit Robin £1 e/w @ 40/1 Stan James (4) 33/1 Paddy Power (5)
Most sites are paying 5 places in this so it makes sense to look for something at a price. My Tent Or Yours could quite easily win but backing him at 7/2 in places? Mental. If he wins here he’ll surely be favourite for the Supreme which is good as I’ve backed him for that at 14/1 a few weeks back. Anyhow it’s really a case of going through them and crossing a few out. Cause of Causes has gone up 10lb since winning the Ladbroke and is definitely worth that on the back of his win over Midnight Game. Cotton Mill much like MTOY needs a bit of a mentalist attitude to back. Is this his main target? Trainer says he’s been waiting for the better ground, well I’d prefer to wait if I was backing him for Cheltenham or even Aintree plus he was well beaten off 147 so doesn’t strike me as that well handicapped off 145. Cash and Go finished ahead of Cause of Causes at Cheltenham before falling at Ascot, now gets an 8lb pull though at 9s the market hasn’t underestimated him. Pearl Swan is also 9s and is also one I’m going to swerve – had a run on the all-weather but again I wouldn’t be confident he’s that well handicapped. Swing Bowler remains unexposed and unbeaten, and she’s been backed, she really could be anything and 134 could totally underestimate but again passing over. The three I’m taking against the field are Dark Lover, Baby Mix and Punjabi. I could really have backed ten in all honesty which kind of makes it even more mental people backing MTOY at 7/2. Dark Lover has gone up 17lb for winning at Cheltenham, which is notably hefty but Dan Breen ran well in the Ladbroke and I think at 22/1 he’s worth value. Punjabi is really all about what he used to be able to do and though he ultimately was well beaten in the Xmas Hurdle the former Champion Hurdle winner races effectively off 140 for Henderson. 20/1 again is worth value. The last one Baby Mix is more speculative but last year he was touted with the likes of Pearl Swan et al was after all sent off second favourite for the Triumph. 33/1 is a stab more than anything. I wasn’t going to back another but Petit Robin is consistently game in form and 40/1. Be an amazing effort to win this obviously but the claimer is one of the best 7lb jockeys about.

 

Dark Lover sluices up

Dark Lover sluices up

Newbury 4.10 – Same Difference £2 @ 7/1 W/O Favourite
I think Unioniste wins this pretty easily in all honesty. Our Father sluiced up on his penultimate start but was then let down by his jumping and beaten by Highland Lodge who then let the form down. Hadrians Approach has plenty of ability shown by his second to Dynaste and Third Intention advertised that form well the other day. However, he’s toppled over a few times over timber. I like Same Difference and though mulled him e/w at 16/1 – all you need is one N/R so I think taking the 7s to win without Unioniste is sensible. He won really nicely the other day at Leicester in a race where a couple of Grade 1 winners over hurdles flopped.

Newbury 4.40 – No bet here. But if I was I‘d back the Twiston-Davies animal Pure Science.

Remainder
Warwick 12.55 – Open Day £5 Win @ 11/2 (Nap)
Warwick 1.30 – Swincombe Flame £2.50 Win @ 7/1 – worth noting the McCoy animal.
Warwick 2.05 – Hey Big Spender £1.50 Win @ 10/1
Leopardstown 2.15 – Waaheb £4 Win @ 10/3
Leopardstown 2.45 – Texas Jack £2 Win @ 11/2
Leopardstown 3.00 – Bog Warrior £2 Win @ 10/1
Lingfield 2.35 – Blue Jack £3.50 Win @ 5/1
Lingfield 3.45 – Elna Bright £1.25 Win @ 18/1
Wolverhampton 7.20 – Al Freej £5 Win @ 2/1
Wolverhampton 9.20 – Berlusca £5 Win @ 2/1

Wolves Double £2 win @ Pays 8/1 at current price.

 

Bog to beat the big two?

Bog to beat the big two?

Overall total stake for competition purposes £61.

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15 thoughts on “Selections for tomorrow – Lonesome Pundit goes mad

  1. Pettit Robbin? Are you crazy. No chance horse wins off 159.

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