Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Hunt Ball Mark II – or an imposter?

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Warwick Classic Chase –

Had a quick look at trends and my own ratings for this race mainly because there’s been a fair few naps on Twitter for the favourite, and what seems a load of excitement, and I think he’s one we can definitely get beat. I’m not saying for one minute PETE THE FEAT is a rogue or anything like that but he’s gone up 40 pounds since the start of his winning run and obviously moving to a trainer who can improve a horse massively helps but I just think he’s far too short at 3/1. He’s also up 2 grades in class having previously plied his trade in class 4 and 5 events until his win at Newbury which was a class 3. He’s also having to face far superior opposition – RESTLESS HARRY for instance has won 3 Group 2’s hurdles. Having watched that Newbury race back, there is no doubt he was impressive but the ground was a complete shocker and so many of his rivals struggled through it and ended up PU. I will say that his form has been franked by WELL REFRESHED who gave him a decent race twice back at Lingfield before falling. I don’t want to begrudge him the recent run, but 40lb, up in class, up in distance. He’s also 0 from 8 on soft though I don’t think that’s a great disaster considering his recent form. Got to find something against it though, the thing that makes me want to oppose it even more is that everyone thinks it will win!!

 

Anyhow the LP ratings have come out with these little gems… take it with a pinch of salt. I have .. in truth the predictive side of things boosted PTF more than anything. The Racing Post seems to be in complete love with him.

 

Overall %
PETE THE FEAT 44.7 20.22624
BRADLEY 26.4 11.9457
FLYING AWARD 24.9 11.26697
RIGADIN DE BEUACHENE 21 9.502262
MAJOR MALARKEY 19.8 8.959276
GODSMEJUDGE 16.4 7.420814
RESTLESS HARRY 16.3 7.375566
SAE SAFFRON 13.2 5.972851
QUENTIN COLLONGES 10.9 4.932127
UNIVERSAL SOLDIER 10.2 4.615385
BENHEIR 10.2 4.615385
AURORAS ENCORE 6 2.714932
WELLFORTH 1 0.452489

 

Still PETE THE FEAT according to my loose ratings comes out as a 20% chance (4/1). The next best is BRADLEY (15/2), then FLYING AWARD (8/1), RIGADIN (10/1).

Pretty disappointed that RESTLESS HARRY has come up so poor at (12/1) – which he obviously won’t be. This horse would carry this lot on his hurdle form and in fact some of his previous chase form behind JOIN TOGETHER and TEA FOR THREE.

 

Anyhow I really wanted to back RH but I won’t be. The two I’m taking are BRADLEY whose form has been franked by MONBEG DUDE from the Cheltenham race in November. Yes his last run was a bit of a downer but I’m prepared to forgive that based on the Heavy ground. The other one I’m siding with is FLYING AWARD who is currently 12/1. This horse has won his last two races, one being over further albeit a 3 runner race. He’s also been pitched up in class 1 for the first time but the price is a little more favourable and the jockey booking is eye catching.

 

2pt win BRADLEY @ 13/2 William Hill

1pt win FLYING AWARD @ 12/1 William Hill

 

The Welsh National winner nails Bradley

The Welsh National winner nails Bradley

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