Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Value is the key!

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A first winner yesterday for the new ratings as Edgardo Sol fairly scooted in, unfortunately he was backed into 9/2 and as he was 11/2 when I ran the ratings it was only a 1pt selection at the time. I think perhaps the best way to go maybe 1pt on every thing. Countrywide Flame ran a cracking race in defeat and Deireadh Re ran well and was backed in nicely, so we definitely got the value at 18s – if not the right result!

I have added a percentage figure to the ratings for ease when assessing value – as a guide both Darlan and Finian’s Rainbow come out top on my figures but the percentage points towards him being nearer 5/2 than the current 5/4. Likewise Darlan nearer 3/1 than 6/4. Like most things getting value is crucially important when betting on horses even if you think a horse is a sure-fire cert to win if the price is far too short then there is no point backing it, especially at short odds. I believe the saying is: “One short price winner, pays for one short price loser.”

Anyhow I’m going to be taking more much note of value when putting up the selections – although as always the top of the ratings will be the first port of call. I’m quite prepared to take some lee-way here also as my ratings are by no means close to being accurate, only a guide.

Melling Chase

Looking at the below race Finian’s someway top on the ratings – but Poquelin, Wishful and Forpady come out top on value. I’m not going to advise a selection though. If Albertas Run drifts to 7/2 which is possible I would back him.

 

HORSE OVERALL PERCENTAGE LP ODDS BEST ODDS
ALBERTAS RUN 51.8 22.34685073 7/2 11/4
FINIAN’S RAINBOW 67 28.90422778 5/2 11/8
FORPADYDEPLASTERER 20.6 8.886971527 11/1 20/1
KALAHARI KING 13.5 5.823986195 16/1 25/1
KAUTO STONE 14.2 6.125970664 16/1 12/1
POQUELIN 34.9 15.05608283 11/2 7/1
PURE FAITH 2.5 1.078515962 100/1 100/1
WISHFUL THINKING 27.3 11.77739431 8/1 11/1

 

Will send over the other races I’ve looked at later. 

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