Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Aintree Ratings – Selections

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Hope the below makes sense. Strangely quite pleased that my value lines tend to be near the actual odds. Means I’m probably not miles away from getting a decent little formula going.

HORSE OVERALL PERCENTAGE LP ODDS BEST ODDS
MELLING CHASE
ALBERTAS RUN 51.8 22.34685073 7/2 11/4
FINIAN’S RAINBOW 67 28.90422778 5/2 11/8
FORPADYDEPLASTERER 20.6 8.886971527 11/1 20/1
KALAHARI KING 13.5 5.823986195 16/1 25/1
KAUTO STONE 14.2 6.125970664 16/1 14/1
POQUELIN 34.9 15.05608283 11/2 15/2
PURE FAITH 2.5 1.078515962 100/1 100/1
WISHFUL THINKING 27.3 11.77739431 8/1 11/1
231.8
TOP NOVICES HURDLE
ABSOLUTELYFANTASTIC 3.3 1.381331101 66/1 40/1
AGENT ARCHIE 21.5 8.999581415 10/1 16/1
CAPTAIN CONAN 21.1 8.832147342 10/1 10/1
DARLAN 58.6 24.52909167 3/1 13/8
NORTH CAPE -1.4 -0.586019255 200/1 66/1
OSCARA DARA 28.5 11.92967769 15/2 9/1
PROSPECT WELLS 46.7 19.547928 4/1 4/1
RIGHT STEP 25.8 10.7994977 8/1 12/1
SEVENTH SKY 7.8 3.26496442 33/1 66/1
THEATRE GUIDE 15.6 6.529928841 14/1 20/1
TOUGHNESS DANON -10.6 -4.43700293 200/1 66/1
VULCANITE 22 9.208874006 10/1 8/1
238.9
SEFTON NOVICES HURDLE
AIKIDEAU 9 2.416756176 40/1 66/1
BALLYROCK 12.8 3.437164339 33/1 14/1
COTTON MILL 29.6 7.948442535 11/1 5/1
ELY BROWN 6.1 1.638023631 66/1 100/1
FINGAL BAY 44.4 11.9226638 15/2 6/4
FORGOTTEN GOLD 16.5 4.430719656 22/1 33/1
GOLDEN CALL 34.7 9.317937701 10/1 16/1
GULLINBURSTI 35.2 9.452201933 10/1 12/1
HARRY TOPPER 25.3 6.79377014 14/1 18/1
HAWKES POINT 18.8 5.048335124 20/1 20/1
IPSOS DE BERLAIS 3 0.805585392 100/1 22/1
KNOCK A HAND 43.5 11.68098818 15/2 12/1
LOVCEN 18.8 5.048335124 20/1 14/1
MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW 3.9 1.04726101 80/1 25/1
NAGPUR 11.2 3.007518797 33/1 50/1
NETMINDER 8.6 2.309344791 40/1 100/1
POOLE MASTER 16.7 4.484425349 22/1 33/1
TAP NIGHT 30.6 8.216970999 11/1 14/1
CATCHERINSCRATCHER 3.7 0.993555317 100/1 66/1
372.4
JOHN SMITH’S HANDICAP HURDLE
ATTAGLANCE 18.3 5.113160101 18/1 14/1
I’M SO LUCKY 18.7 5.224923163 18/1 28/1
SAPHIR RIVER -10.8 -3.017602682 200/1 25/1
ORSIPPUS 25.3 7.069013691 14/1 16/1
ROBINSON COLLONGES 11 3.073484213 28/1 16/1
BOURNE 27.8 7.76753283 12/1 17/2
HAZY TOM 19 5.30874546 18/1 18/1
IT’S A GIMME 46.7 13.04833752 13/2 5/1
KILMACOWEN 2.9 0.810282202 100/1 20/1
ACT OF KALANISI 10.3 2.877898854 33/1 20/1
DARE ME 6.6 1.844090528 50/1 14/1
CAPE DUTCH 34.5 9.639564124 9/1 16/1
ARTHURIAN LEGEND 25.6 7.152835988 14/1 22/1
LIKE MINDED 20.9 5.839620006 16/1 25/1
ART PROFESSOR 5.9 1.648505169 66/1 20/1
LAVA LAMP 16.9 4.721989383 20/1 16/1
STREET ENTERTAINER 3.6 1.005867561 100/1 18/1
ALL THE ACES 15.7 4.386700196 22/1 18/1
TOUR D’ARGENT 28 7.823414362 12/1 9/1
SKI SUNDAY 10.9 3.045543448 33/1 50/1
LOS NADIS 15.5 4.330818664 22/1 40/1
RAJNAGAN 4.6 1.285275217 80/1 40/1
357.9
MILDMAY NOVICES
CHAMPION COURT 46 28.39506173 5/2 2/1
JOIN TOGETHER 29.5 18.20987654 9/2 5/1
SILVIANCO CONTI 47 29.01234568 9/4 7/4
SOLIX 22 13.58024691 13/2 6/1
YES TOM 17.5 10.80246914 17/2 25/1
162

 

Based on ratings and then value. I’m going to go with these today. A lot of shorties at the top of the ratings.

Melling Chase 3.05 1pt win Poquelin @ 15/2

Top Novices Hurdle 2.00 2pt win Prospect Wells @ 4/1

Sefton Novices 4.15 1pt win Knock A Hand @ 12/1

Sefton Novices 1pt 4.15 win Tap Night @ 14/1

John Smiths Hurdle 5.25 1pt win Cape Dutch @ 16/1

 

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