Cheltenham Thoughts as it stands
I’m not going to have much time to preview the week or post up selections for each week and see little point in going through what I’ve already backed. However, will run through a few things below which I think could prove useful and may offer some pointers to readers. Let’s face there’s so much information at the minute it’s get a bit monotonous and thrown down your throat. Every tweet has a Cheltenham subject, everything on ATR/RUK is focused on the next week.
Here’s what I have backed already – not going to explain in any depth, these are just the races I’ve backed something in – I’ll likely back things in other races on the day. I will also be putting up a selection for the County Hurdle later as I’m doing a preview for http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/ – the preview won’t go up until Thursday by the looks of things but I’m taking the price tonight as I think he’ll only shorten.
Top Trainer – N Henderson 5pt win @ 3/1 – Price available was available with Ladbrokes one day last week. This bet is really to keep me entertained through every race. Think 3/1 is a pretty enticing price considering he has a couple of decent favourites. I’ve also not backed any of his actual runners so this sort of covers me.
Supreme – Prospect Wells 1pt win @ 25/1 – Backed him last week. Happy to write off the Tolworth form – interesting that Nicholls reveals he has had a breathing operation.
Supreme – Midnight Game 1pt e/w @ 16/1 – I backed this one after reading www.undergroundtipster.com an excellent free site. Worth reading.
Regards the Supreme and other races I guess the blog post from last year had me reminiscing. https://lonesomepundit.wordpress.com/2011/03/23/supreme-look-back/
Arkle – Al Ferof 2pt win @ 6/1 – backed him here https://lonesomepundit.wordpress.com/2012/01/28/cheltenham-ante-post/ – happy with the price now obviously. One to beat!
Arkle – Bog Warrior 1pt win @ 20/1 – Dead
JLT Handicap Chase – Zarrafakt 1pt win @ 16/1 – I’ve backed him purely on the basis of a post from the excellent Wayward Lad blog http://www.waywardlad.blogspot.com/2012/03/possible-festival-handicap-steamer.html
JLT Handicap Chase – Blenheim Brook 1pt win @ 25/1 – I think this one is overpriced based on an unfashionable yard. Looks reasonably well handicapped. Nice weight – decent price. I may back another on the day in here.
Champion Hurdle – Overturn 2pt e/w @ 20/1 in the market without Hurricane Fly – Read why https://lonesomepundit.wordpress.com/2012/02/22/ive-had-madder-bets-overturn-ing-the-odds/ I think Hurricane Fly will win though a sentimental few quid on Binocular may be worth a try if he looks in peak condition.
Cross Country – Balthazar King 2pt @ 14/1 – Backed this one today again purely based on other blogs. This time the excellent Longshot Betting http://longshotbetting.com/2012/03/11/cheltenham-festival-2012-cross-country-chase/ I’ve backed most of Josh’s selection since January – it’s kind of replaced Bet Buddy which went to a paid service. The blog is well worth taking note of.
RSA Chase – Walkon 1pt win @ 40/1 – Bit of a mental bet. But think he has a fair amount of quality – form at Cheltenham isn’t bad and if you excuse his record at Newbury his overall form reads a lot better. This race I think you can pick holes in a lot of them – Grands Crus may not run – trip issue? Bobs Worth – looks too short to me based on this season. Sir Des Champs – may go Jewson. First Lieutentant – not convinced about his jumping and only 4s in places. Join Together – too slow. Then really your down to Walkon and I do think he was a decent shout at 40s is still available at 33s in places and with Invictus out he’ll have Thornton on board.
Coral Cup – Saphir River 1pt win @ 33/1 – French form is excellent. Unknown quantity could be well handicapped. Is in the World Hurdle so they must think he’s pretty handy.
Fred Winter – Edeymi 1pt win @ 20/1 – Just eyed Irish form middle of Feb which ties in with Hisaabaat and Darroun nicely. 20s was too big.
Champion Bumper – Venture Capital 1pt e/w @ 16/1 Dead duck this one. Again followed Underground Tipster here.
Champion Bumper – Cool George 1pt win @ 33/1 – You need to follow @kingofbumpers
Pertemps – Saphir River 1pt win @ 20/1 – Same reasons as Coral Cup both backed NRNB
Triumph Hurdle – Didlar 1pt e/w @ 16/1 – Dead duck.
County Hurdle – Sailors Warn 1pt win @ 25/1 – Fancied him prior to the Betfair Hurdle – hasn’t moved much think he’ll run pretty well though do believe he’s well handicapped and capable of a big pot. He’s not the one I’m putting up later. Backed him back in January.
Albert Bartlett – Sea Of Thunder 3pt win @ 12/1 + Sea of Thunder 2pt win @ 16/1. Backed him straight after the Grade 2 where he fell in December over CD. Good trial and although he didn’t win you had to be impressed with the way he put that race to bed before falling. He’s had one run since on bad ground and drifted to 16s where I had some more as that ground was shocking and it was over 2m 4f. He has turn form around with Boston Bob – but I think he can do it and hope he does as it’ll be my biggest winner of the week.
Gold Cup – Midnight Chase 2pt e/w @ 11 in market without Kauto Star & Long Run – backed here https://lonesomepundit.wordpress.com/2012/01/28/cheltenham-ante-post/ Probably my best looking bet now especially if Grands Crus goes for the RSA. Think he’ll be in the first five without fail.
Foxhunters – Chapoturgeon 2pt win @ 6/1 – I know very little about the Hunter Chase field. However, I think this one will go off about 3/1 and his form at Newbury slamming Cloudy Lane puzzles me why they are so close in the market.
And that is everything I have backed so far .. I will as I say try and sling a blog up each night before hand but it is a bit hectic.
Here are a few others things that may be of use according to a few things that have dropped in the post the last few days.
Paul Nicholls best handicap chance – Sonofvic
Timeform give a good shout to Smad Place in the World Hurdle – “looks to big to be ignored” – can still be backed in the win market at 33/1 and the w/o Big Bucks at 14/1.
Triumph – Donald McCain seems very bullish about Hollow Tree and 20s with Bet Victor is a bit of an insult. He also puts him up as his best outsider.
Donald McCain best handicap chance – Bourne
Timeform recommend Tetlami in the Supreme and Boston Bob in the Neptune – ignore the later!
Gordon Elliott best handicap chance – Dirar – Timeform also nominate Toner d’Oudairies in the Coral Cup.
Astraced in the Grand Annual is Sam Turner’s “Dark Horse to Watch” according to some William Hill booklet. In the same book Paul Jones naps On The Fringe as his best bet.
Remember all the trends (don’t be tied to them mind). Remember the record of runners with an absence. Remember CD form. Remember weight in handicaps etc.
Ciao for now…..