Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Quick fire Cheltenham

Leave a comment

Had a look over the card today for Cheltenham, so thought I may as well sling a post up. I’ve hardly backed a horse in weeks so I wouldn’t go with these and your life savings!

1.10 – Want to take on Al Ferof here. He has a good record at Cheltenham but at odds on without ever having jumped a fence I’m itching to find something to beat him. Not that it’s totally relevant but he fell over hurdles first time up last year and although he has the most potential of this lot as I say evens on a novice chaser is a recipe for disaster. The one I’m going to take is the Irish raider Delphi Mountain, he’s only run once over the bigger obstacles in winning a beginners chase at Killarney, now my Irish form isn’t great but the animal he beat that De Valira has since beaten and then run close First Lieutenant who won the Neptune last year. On that form he looks a better animal than 22/1. If you watch the replay of that Killarney race he was hardly asked a question and although jumping a little high looks a decent price for an each way punt here.

1pt e/w Delphi Mountain @ 22/1 William Hill

2.20 – Wide open the Greatwood Hurdle, with plenty of likely improving types and whoever wins it will end up in the mix to take on Hurricane Fly. Based on his Sandown romp you’d have to like Patesse and likewise you’d have to like those from the Ascot race which Brampour won beating Via Gallilei and A Media Luz. The latter has a nice weight pull and has also been well backed but she’s run a couple of stinkers over the CD. Anyways to keep with the long shots theme I’ve plumped for a couple at bigger prices who I feel could easily run into a place or hopefully go better. First up is the Hobbs trained Nearby, who has been running against some top class animals over the last twelve months, he’s still probably too high in the handicap, but he won nicely at Wincanton this last time year and on his last appearance at Cheltenham he ran an absolute belter to finish third off 149 at the festival. He’s run a few times over fences since then and not looked a natural, however his run at Kempton prior to that Ascot race won by Brampour showed he still has some ability. Well behind that day was Via Galilei, he’s shown he can cope with a mark this high and he also likes the course, so at 40s I think he’s worth a nibble. The second horse I like is Olofi, who runs today in first time cheek pieces and tongue tie. He’s another who has run well over CD in the past notably in this race last year, where he was 5th off 132. His mark today of 130 is definitely workable having also gone close in the Gerry Fielden on 133. He had a nice spin over in France a fortnight ago and will hopefully be tuned up for this. Obviously it’s extremely competitive but I feel hopeful both Nearby and Olofi can put up good showings.

1pt e/w Nearby @ 40/1 Ladbrokes

1pt e/w Olofi @ 25/1 Ladbrokes 

3.30 – Another cracking little event and the two market leaders could be really special having both bolted up in NH flat races and then a maiden hurdle, if I’d seen the 11/2 about African Broadway then may have sided with him. However I’m going to avoid both though and go with Grandad’s Horse who keeps winning having won his last four races and all of them with minimum fuss. The form may not amount to much but I feel at 8/1 he’s value against the front two.

1pt win Grandad’s Horse @ 8/1

 

Will sling some NFL bets later. Only going to do the games on TV mind.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s