Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

From Kansas to Exeter

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Not a great return on the NFL over the weekend with a 5-9 record, I put up the Cowboys on Twitter but they were smashed off the park. Was a funny old selection of results you’d have been hard pushed to see the Saints lose to the Rams let alone by 10pts, likewise the games between the Ravens and Cardinals and the Giants and Dolphins were unexpectedly close. I’ll take a look at the overall betting for divisions and the Superbowl at some stage this week – remember at the start of the season we put up the Eagles and Texans, neither are bust yet so that’s all good. If you want some other NFL tips check out the Stayed Classy blog on the right. I’m not giving up on the NFL though week 9 I’m certain will see a return to profit! One match tonight …

Chargers @ Chiefs

This game is crucial to my fantasy hopes as I need Rivers and Bowe to combine for 36 points to scrape a win, considering I was predicted to win this week by 53 points – you can tell from that how much of a shocker I had yesterday. I’m tempted to back low on Rivers and Bowe’s yardage just as an insurance blanket to get some returns from a depressing week. As for the match itself it’s a crucial one with the Chargers slipping up last week and the Chiefs having won their last 3. If they win this match they’ll tie the Chargers and Raiders at the top of the division. The Chargers defense is the 4th best against the pass so expect the Chiefs to attack more through the running game and Jackie Battle. Everything for the Chargers will revolve around what sort of game Rivers puts up, he tends to perform when required and this is a big game, good news having Gates back. I’m still unconvinced by the Chiefs in all honesty they’ve got past the Vikings and then won away against the Colts (who doesn’t) before the Week 7 over Oakland. That game was punctuated by some good defense from the Chiefs but some average QB play. I think Rivers therefore is key if he can get things going and cut out the interceptions then the Chargers win. I’m not going to advise a bet on the win outcome though as the Chargers flatter to deceive and don’t win by much so I’d not be confident. The bet I’d take is under 43.5 this game in San Diego was a 37 points game and I sense something similar tonight. Both defense are solid and San Diego are averaging 23pts per game and the Chiefs 17pts. Go low ..

Prediction Chargers 22 – Chiefs 17

Back Under 43.5 @ 2.04


Elsewhere tomorrow we have a decent jumps meeting at Exeter.

Cracking renewal of the Haldon Gold Cup with Captain Chris, Ghizao and Medermit lining up each winning competitive races last year. Arkle winner Captain Chris is the pick of the three for me although all obviously respected. The Captain does have to give the other two 5 and 6lb respectively and that will make things tougher, in addition this may only be a tune up for bigger events down the line. The one I’m going to take a stab with though against all three is Zaarito from Ireland. He gets 12lb off Captain Chris and I think off 148 he may just have been underestimated. The concerns would be reasonably long mind as he’s a truly dodger jumper but some of his form should have him right in the mix. The best of those was back in the PJ Moriarty in 2010, there he was travelling as well as anything before falling at the last. In second that day was the 2010 RSA winner Weapons Amnesty. His only run last season was behind Golden Silver which was an encouraging return. There’s an element of risk here as his jumping can lead to problems but I do think he has some class and although the first three are recognized as big dangers, I’d doubt Colm Murphy would bring him over to Exeter just for a blow-out.

1pt win Zaarito @ 7/1

The novice chase isn’t a betting proposition but should be a cracking duel. I’d lean towards Sam Winner of the two – not really sure why but think he could be a truly magnificent beast over the jumps.


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