Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Nails to nail another winner?

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A rare winning day from the personal bets yesterday, Classic Punch was sent off at 8/1 and never at any stage looked in any trouble, he got the soft lead and Spencer gave him a good ride. Burj Nahar was very disappointing and will no doubt end up like a lot of the Godolphin string appearing in the odd 3 runner condition race before going to Meydan. Jacqueline Quest traded at 1.82 in running and looked to have a great chance but when it came to the crunch she found absolutely nothing, fitness may have played a part. Desert Law managed to beat the hotpot Firebeam as I expected he would alas he ran into another well handicapped animal and was beaten into second. 3.5pts of profit on the day which I’ll take.

The system bets at SP again made a slight loss although Roninski was available at 11/4 about ten minutes before the off, Pelmanism was second beaten by Mirza who ironically would have been a system bet had he run on Friday. The reason he wasn’t a system bet today was due to the trainer course form. Unfortunate but that’s the way it goes.

Good racing today in Ireland and France, with a couple more cards in England. Over in France in the Prix Maurice Gheest you’d have to fancy Dream Ahead after his excellent win in the July Cup. I do think Society Rock is the big danger and get the feeling his win in the Golden Jubilee has somewhat been forgotten. Zoffany in my opinion is better over further.

4.05 Curragh – This is without doubt the best juvenile race of the season, with Power, Frederick Engels and Lilbourne Lad already group winners this season having won the Coventry, July Stakes and Railway Stakes respectively. On official ratings those three are evenly matched with Gatepost and Tough As Nails, whilst Reply cost £500k and won his maiden in taking fashion. On a form line through Roman Soldier who was beaten a neck by Power in the Coventry, Frederick Engels should have the beating of Power having won by further at Newmarket, he is a likeable colt and should be vying for favouritism with Power. Gatepost also ran in the Coventry and was hampered and left with too much to do, it’s debatable though whether he’d have beaten Power and Roman Soldier. Channon’s yard is also out of form so I’m happy to avoid Gatepost who I fancy may also get backed on the basis of being hampered in that race, the 6/1 about him looks too short. Lilbourne Lad should not be underestimated having beaten Requinto who has since won the Molecomb and then last time out Lilbourne Lad was made to work far harder in beating Tough As Nails by ¾ of a length in the Railway Stakes. Looking back at that race the Hannon runner deservedly won but they are closely matched. Tough As Nails has also faced down Power and was only narrowly beaten by a short head. It’s a pretty wide open race but I’m going to go with an each way bet on Tough As Nails because he looks the value play and is slightly overpriced in my opinion, Reply could be the oyster in the pool as he’s somewhat unknown and O’Brien has a wonderful record in the race. Anyhow 14/1 each way on Tough As Nails for me.

  • 1pt e/w Tough As Nails @ 14/1 Ladbrokes

 

System bets will bung up later on.

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One thought on “Nails to nail another winner?

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