Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Saturday Bets

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Going to run through this pretty quickly. Another losing day on the system bets yesterday albeit by only 0.2pt – these short priced runners keep winning which is good but we could do with one of the longer ones sticking their necks in front. Figaro beaten that margin yesterday. The other selection was a non runner. A somewhat quieter Saturday than normal and although the Shergar Cup is a well supported event it’s not one to get carried away with betting on, it’s a meeting I’m giving a miss.

Football wise not going to nominate any actual bets, there’s no form to go on but will obviously be cheering on Ipswich away at Bristol City, hopefully we can get a result and then optimism will reign. As I mentioned in the preview if the team gels they will do really well this season, depends how long it takes to happen. Bristol City still have Maynard so are a dangerous side.

2.05 Newmarket – A number of these took each other on a few weeks back in a Class 3 handicap. Tiger Reigns, Demolition, Classic Punch and Taqleed finished in that order behind Club Oceanic. As a result the handicapper put Tiger Reigns up 2lb, Demolition up 1lb and dropped Classic Punch and Taqleed 1lb and 2lb respectively. On the new weights Classic Punch at 9/1 looks the best option. Spencer has been booked for the ride, ridden 4 times with one win and two seconds and although I do rate the chances of Pekan Star and Kirthill who have the potential to be the two horses capable of much better, I’m going to chance Classic Punch’s superior course form and the bigger price over the pair. Pekan Star has to carry 9-12 and his failure to settle at York last time would concern me slightly, he’s potentially still well treated as he hacked up prior to that John Smiths run and was then backed off the boards in that race, I’d expect him to be shorter than 3/1 also come the start. Classic Punch though may well get a soft lead in front and having won off a mark of 110 remains well treated off 94.

  • 1pt win Classic Punch @ 9/1 Bet 365

 2.15 Haydock – The run of Classic Punch will be a small pointer to my next selection in this race. The three at the top of the market are the ones to concentrate on, Naqshabban looked a smart sort on his first two starts, finished ahead of Musidora winner Joviality before running an absolute stinker over this 10f trip last time out. He runs off the same mark today and that recent run would concern me as he’s not proved it over the distance. Halfsin however has proved himself over the distance having won three times this season, the latest beating the aforementioned Kirthill – so if he runs well in the previous race there’s a boost. He has though been upped 10lb for that latest win and now also takes a step up in class. With the three year old weight allowance he may prove capable of defying the rise. The last of the trio though is the one I prefer, Burj Nahar has only run three times in his career and remains well treated on a mark of 101 based on his only try at 10f when beating the useful Zain Sharmadal at Newmarket. Last time out over 2f further at Ascot he was keen early and then found trouble before being eased up close home. Back at 10f and in what looks a slightly easier race he’s taken to bounce back to winning ways.

  • 2pt win Burj Nahar @ 13/2 William Hill

3.15 Haydock – There’s an element of risk involved with this selection. Jacqueline Quest on official figures is rated 12lb superior to her closest rival, she has excellent mile form in the book, winning the Guineas at three albeit being disqualified and then finishing third in the Coronation Stakes last year behind Lillie Langtry but ahead of some classy fillies. This season she has been poor having been overturned by a 72 rated horse in a Conditions race and then refusing to race last time out. The refusal to race is obviously a bit of a worry but at 12/1 I’m prepared to take the risk she’ll start, if she does then there’s no way on last year’s form she’s a 12/1 chance in this field. Heavenly Dawn bolted up last time at Newbury but that was a grade lower and looked a poor race, the second and third have both been well beaten since, she offers no value at 7/4. Submission has won a couple of Class 4 handicaps and is now trying her luck at a higher level, she’s likeable but again too short for me at 10/3 especially as both of those handicaps she was pretty much odds on. The selection has moved from Henry Cecil to Ian Williams and the booking of Eddie Ahern is one I like, there’s a good omen here also as Sam Sharp for the same connections moved from Cecil to Williams and won on his first for his new stable earlier this year. Anyway to sum up if she starts she’s got a great chance, no point going each way because she may well refuse again, she’s entered in the Matron Stakes and Sun Chariot so connections have obviously not given up totally.

  • 1.5pt win Jacqueline Quest @ 12/1 Bet 365

 

 System bets I’ll send through later on.

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