Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

July Cup Duo

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Close but no cigar yesterday as Fontley finished a never nearer second, well backed into 5/1 I should have taken my own advice and backed her each way. I’m very much of the opinion though that playing win only is the main way to play as the terms would have just about got our money back unless of course the price dictates and allows an each way bet worthy of returning a decent amount. Slightly riskier to play win only but as I say the pros outweigh the cons long term. In my personal opinion!

Today sees yet another brace of all weather meetings albeit Lingfield is half and half, why not just stick a whole turf meeting on? The racing today is truly dreadful far worse than yesterday which is saying something really. Interested to read Richard Hannon today in the Racing Post complaining quite vehemently about the July Cup being moved to the Saturday, for the record I wholeheartedly agree, there is far too much quality racing on a Saturday, it should obviously remain the main day for racing but when you’ve got 3 cracking races like we do on Saturday on 3 separate Grade A tracks in the space of half an hour there really is no time to promote the race or divert attention to the three races. Why not shift the Ascot card to Sunday or something? Or perhaps start a card later in the day, either way the racing at the start of the week continues to be dire and the Saturday’s continue to be overloaded. I’d be amazed if after Newmarket, York and Ascot anyone finds the time to pluck a few bets from Chester!

Anyways as today’s racing is dreadful decided to take a look at the upcoming July Cup. Taking a bit of a risk by looking at it so early as the draw has played a crucial part in the last 7 years, with 6 of the last 7 winners drawn lower than 7. The next thing I’m going to do is simply ignore Delegator the Godolphin runner, why you may ask well for me 7/2 in a sprint of this nature with unknowns currently about the drawn and ground looks slim, in addition to this 10 of the last 10 winners all ran in the past 30 days, Delegator is the only runner in the field who bucks this trend, whilst the record of Duke Of York Stakes winners is 0 from 6 in the past 10 years. He is I have no doubt a class act and could well bolt up here, he’s run well at Newmarket previously and won over both the July and Rowley Mile course though I just feel he’s worth passing over at the current price.  

Of the remainder it’s as usual with these sprints much of a muchness and any number of runners have decent claims, the Australian horse Star Witness finished 3rd in the Golden Jubilee and is priced up at 13/2, oddly enough though Monsiuer Chevalier who finished ahead that day is 16/1 with Skybet. The Australian trained runners don’t have a particularly good record in recent years so of those two I’d prefer the latter. Others to have run with credit in the Golden Jubilee include the 4th, 5th and 6th home Elzaam, Bated Breath and Amico Fritz, the prices surrounding the first two in my opinion are probably short enough now with Elzaam 6/1 and Bated Breath 7/1. Both are obviously progressive and worthy of note. The third of that group Amico Fritz looks potentially overpriced at 33/1 with Victor Chandler, he had to race in the stands side group of five and finished some way ahead of Dalghar and Hitchens, both re-oppose and Dalghar is half the price. Watching that run back he pretty much had to go it alone from the 2f pole and to only finish beaten by less than 3 lengths was a fine effort. I just think compared to those that ran in the Golden Jubilee he is being forgotten about somewhat.

Another line worth looking at is the form of Elzaam and in particular his record against Libranno, the Hannon juvenile. Back at this meeting last year the pair met in the TNT July stakes with Libranno finishing 4 lengths ahead of his rival. Elzaam started this season by being beaten by Pausanias albeit giving that one 9lb, Libranno recently won at the July Course beating Pausanias. That run last weekend may have been underestimated because of the ground and Libranno racing on the best of it, he did though beat a number of useful animals including the likes of Awzaan who has run Delegator close in the past. I just think with the prices and Libranno’s like of the July Course standing at 2/2, also run well on the Rowley Mile he is worth a small bet. Also worth noting he’s finished ahead of Monsieur Chevalier this season and although will need to turn around that Windsor form with Bated Breath the current 33/1 looks big compared to Elzaam at 6s.

By all means consider playing these each way.

  • 1pt win Amico Fritz @ 33/1 Victor Chandler
  • 1pt win Libranno @ 33/1 Bet 365

System bets.

Not going to add nurseries into the system they may well prove profitable but just sticking to class 4 and 5 handicaps. Ed Dunlop’s two year old would qualify today if nurseries were included.

  • 7.20 Kempton – Dominimum – J Gask (4) (13%)

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