Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Stats Update

1 Comment

I won’t go into great detail here as you’ll all no doubt be bored rigid by it.

Have updated the personal bets, you can see all my own personal bets in the tab above – June has started slowly with a loss so far of -12.5pts not great by any means, but considering half of that was due to the Derby I’m convinced things will turn for the positive again. After Ascot I may try and look at cracking the Bet 365 Feature races each day or something like that. The good thing with those races is if you find the winner over 4/1 then you’ll get a free bet on the next one. Something to think about next week at any rate. The overall results since Cheltenham still read a positive +46.875pts with a strike rate of 17% and ROI of 52%. The average starting price has been 11/1 and I know a few of these have been 33/1 and 40s which does distort that figure somewhat but I’m happy with a 17% strike rate if the odds are reasonable.

You’ll notice I’ve also added the system bets results to a tab of their own, this is purely so you can see which ones have been selected. I’ve removed the Cheltenham results – one can only bask in ones glory for so long and I’ve also removed the explanation to the system bets as these are now pretty straightforward to understand. I’m also not going to tinker with them for some while.

A quick run through of the one runner system bets shows that since March there have been 50 qualifiers which have returned a profit of +65.60 at Industry SP as always this can be improved by taking an early price with a B.O.G bookmaker or by using Betfair, I prefer to use the former as from time to time the selections will drift and drifters do win occasionally. I’ve also looked into whether it would be going 0.5pt e/w or 1pt win and the latter is far more profitable.

  • Selections – 50
  • Winners – 15
  • Strike Rate – 30%
  • Profit – 65.60
  • ROI – 131.2%
  • Average SP – 7/1

Things have picked up again since a bad run at the start of May, since the 30th May there have been 14 selections, with 4 winners and a return of +12.50pts. So I’d be hopeful the system continues to produce the goods. If anyone has any questions either send me a comment or if you’d prefer anonymity an email is fine richemmamolly@live.co.uk or lonesomepundit@yahoo.co.uk

Was considering a personal bet today on Mirror Lake in the 7.40 as I think Timepiece is overrated and Amanda Perrett’s filly has some decent form from last season, not least at Goodwood ahead of Prince Siegfried and Poet. However I’d probably want a bit more than 4/1 to consider backing her. Pipette could also reward each way money as although she’s been off a while, the stable has been in excellent form and she was only 3l behind Snow Fairy last season. Worth noting Mrs Perrett is in good form and Mirror Lake is her only runner today.

Ascot tomorrow so will try and fire a few bullets at that, won’t be going overboard mind as I’ll be following the Formbet trend pick, Formbet top rated selections and anything Bet Buddy chooses to select. Hence chances are they’ll be very few selections from me as not much point having 50% of the runners in the race.

System Bets

  • 8.30 Windsor – Joe Strummer – M Bell (5) (11%)
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One thought on “Stats Update

  1. Ha, ha!
    Just read your comment and looked at your blog, and SNAP!
    What I’m thinking of doing is a win wager on MIRROR LAKE and a couple of straight F/C’s; Mirror Lake to beat Pipette and Pipette to beat Mirror Lake.
    The going may be a worry for Mirror Lake (according to the trainer) if it goes soft as she said same when it was 2nd last Sept. But ML had Poet behind that day, and he is a soft-going specialist. So, for me, unless it turns into a swamp the going holds no real worries.
    All the best.

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