Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Sit back and enjoy.

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That’s what I’d suggest doing tomorrow. Canford Cliffs against Goldikova, Frankel versus himself really, the Kings Stand and a couple of competitive two year old heats. It’s not a day for going mad with the bets thats for sure!

2.30 – Heads or Tails really here. I’m not going to nominate a bet on anything it’s most definitely one of the races of the week. Canford Cliffs was hugely impressive in the Lockinge and has been since his run in the Guineas last year. The vibes are all positive from Hannon but when aren’t they. Goldikova though is a truly fantastic mare and I’d probably prefer to see her win. She’s as game as you like with any amount of class, this race is a better one than she won last year against Paco Bay so if I was pushed for a selection my head says Canford, my heart says Goldikova. Cityscape can reward those looking for one at a bigger price but with only 7 running he’s not worth an each way bet. Cape Blanco has a terrific record over distances less than 1m 4f with 5 wins from 6. He does though need to bounce back from a poor run last time out.

3.05 – Kings Stand. Have already nominated Bridgetown as an ante post bet at 20/1 each way. That’s looking reasonably decent now he’s been backed into 12s in most places. The draw hasn’t been overly favourable as the best position is usually away from the centre. Of the other runners the Australian horse Star Witness as I stated last week has been chasing home Black Caviar and is fancied to go well, I’m not overly convinced though and he looks short enough at 4s. Kingsgate Native ran reasonably well behind Sole Power at Haydock and at 9s has a decent shout, whilst there looks plenty of pace drawn low with Tangerine Trees, Rose Blossom and Swiss Diva this should all help assist Sole Power as he loves to come from a quick pace and he warrants respect. The softer ground could also see Overdose in a better light. Either way cracking look sprint but with my money on Bridgetown I’ll stick with that bar any other trend/Formbet/Bet Buddy bets.

3.45 –  The machine returns and I think everyone hopes he wins, not only for Sir Henry but for racing in general. Frankel is already a superstar but the longer he remains unbeaten the better, he’s obviously not a betting proposition at 2/5 but there are other markets worth considering here which make some appeal. The winning distance market could be one area you’d look at, Frankel has won all his races with consumate ease and performances like a 10l win in the Royal Lodge and 6l win in the Guineas could mean the 5/2 about 5l or more is worth punting. I’d not be overly sure though and if I was playing it I think going for a shorter distance may be a better option. After all we’re told he’ll be ridden slightly differently and he may just win somewhat cheekily. I’m not going to nominate a punt but a distance of 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 lengths could reward backers at 13/2. The other market worth looking at here is the without Frankel market as with 9 going to post, we still get the each way 3 without the superstar. The two outsiders I think you can rule out. Excelebration has been well backed but did he beat anything worthwhile in the German Guineas? Dubawi Gold to me looks a little short of top class. Dream Ahead hasn’t run since October and although the softer ground will suit the absence is a concern. Zoffany I like especially with Moore on board and the Japanese horse is a bit of an unknown. However the one I like and hope he’ll bounce back is Wootton Bassett another terrific horse and unbeaten until losing his record in the French Guineas. I don’t think that was a bad run by any stretch of the imagination from a bad draw, Hanagan probably used up to much energy early and if Frankel doesn’t lead this chap may do and I can see him being the one Frankel has to catch in the last few furlongs. He can be backed at 16/1 in the with Frankel market but I’m preferring to go with the 5/1 in the without market and I think it’s an each way bet to nothing really but I’m going win only.

  • 3.45 1pt win Wootton Bassett @ 5/1 in without Frankel market

4.25 – I’ve not taken much notice of two year old form this season and can’t quite remember the last bet I had in a 2 year old race. This is obviously tricky and any one of about 15 could win, Hannon has won the race for the past couple of seasons and Trumpet Major looks his best chance but with it difficult to weigh up the Irish form in comparism to the English form it’s a tricky old race. One I do think who is over priced, I’m guessing mainly because of connections is B Fifty Two. He’s debut run was in the hot Newbury maiden that Magic City won, plenty of winners have come out from that though and this one then finished ahead of Verbeeck who has since won, also got to within 2l of St Barths, B Fifty Two beat him further and then he subsequently beat Lilbourne Lad who has franked the form in no uncertain terms the other day in Ireland. As I say it’s pretty tough to find anything that leaps out and cases could be made for any number but at 40/1 with 4 places being paid think he’s worth a small shout.

  • 0.5pt e/w B Fifty Two @ 40/1 Blue Square

5.00 – Not a race that really interests me with the main market leaders having run over the jumps, it’s hard to weigh up their actual flat rating and whether they’re ahead of it. Junior is obviously a class act and has won well over the jumps since winning last year. He is a worthy favourite and with Moore on board could well do the trick again.

5.35 – If you thought the Coventry was tough well then this is even tougher, it’s a no bet race personally as although the favourite clocked a good speed last time he could well blow out returning to the track quickly. Shumoos who beat Frederick Engels at Haydock is obviously very smart but I tend to view these 2 year old races with an attitude of going against the grain as you’ve seen with a talking horse like Magic City that sometimes hype is overrated. Frederick Engels is the obvious hype horse in here. The American challeneger only beat Bear Behind on his last start that was a quick time however and I doubt the latter with turn the form around. The one I’d potentially be interested in would be Caspar Netscher who looks a little big at 33s. He ran below par last time out at Epsom but was well fancied and then got bumped early. He deserves another chance and I guess at 33s could warrant a small each way. Not backing him mind!

Best of luck to everyone and get involved in those Twitter competitions and the like. System bets up in the morning won’t be any from Ascot but may be some from Thirsk or Brighton.

Ciao.

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