Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Derby Day

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Feeling absolutely rotten this morning and for once it has nothing to do with copious amounts of alcohol, seem to have a mild case of tonsilitis which is a nightmare when you can’t open your mouth or talk properly. I did eat some salad on Thursday so I’m hoping the two are not connected!

Spent a fair while last night ploughing through the cards trying to pick out a few candidates but it’s a tricky old day. Regards the Derby I’m content to stick with what I’ve got, I still actually think Seville is worth a bet or an each way bet as I’d expect him to be in the first three, Recital and Carlton House are the obvious dangers and with a saver on Recital I’ll just play it that way. A few other guys namely Turf Analyst and Bet Buddy have also plumped for Seville so there’s plenty of blog support for the O’Brien inmate, should be a cracking race. The stand out price at Hills currently of 3/1 about Carlton House is also tempting for a smaller saver but that’s not really the way I roll. I wouldn’t have found the winner of the Oaks in a month of Sunday’s so pretty glad I left it alone although as a footnote the one I backed Mesariya who didn’t run did beat Wonder of Wonders – what might have been eh!

3.10 Musselburgh – This is a really competitive handicap and usually produces a number of decent animals, last years event for instance was won by Harris Tweed and several of those in behind have also progressed really well the likes of Corsica, Spanish Duke, Rock A Doodle Doo and Opera Gal. This year’s renewal looks just as competitive and as such looks a bit of a minefield but I do think one is slightly over priced in relation to his current mark. Mica Mika looks supposedly the Fahey second string in here with Andrew Heffernan claiming three but this season he has put up three decent runs to finish second firstly upped in trip in a maiden and then a wonderful run behind Sud Pacifique who I rate 100+ beaten a neck and then last time out at Chester where he finished behind Swift Alhaarth who reopposes that won beat the selection by 2l that day and now has to concede 10lb to Mica Mika yet the Johnston horse is shorter in the betting. I think based on the York run he’ll like Musselburgh and although there are a number of unknowns, improvers, a stoute Johnston top weight and a possible blot from Sir Mark. I fancy he’ll go well.

  • 1pt e/w Mica Mika @ 14/1 Coral
5.25 Epsom – As I say looked at any number of other races today and Berling in the previous race at Epsom appealed somewhat at 8/1 as I think he’s a horse with bundles of talent who could absolutely waltz away with that race but he is something of a rogue so your taking plenty with trust on him. Course and distance form to me is important and especially more so at Epsom, this downhill sprint is the fastest in the country and a speedster from a good draw with course and distance appeals. The one I’m taking a chance on actually won this race last year and is the only animal to have won round Epsom, drawn in 10 is no problem and with the Barron form in decent nick he’s taken to repeat the dose. The concern would be Flipando doesn’t win very often but he’s been plying his trade in these handicaps for some time the positive to counter that though is that Graham Gibbons has only been legged up 7 times and on three of those occasions he has come home in front.
  • 1pt e/w Flipando @ 16/1 Bet 365

System bets –

  • 6.45 Lingfield – My Learned Friend – A Balding (5) (14%)
  • 6.45 Lingfield – Ancient Greece – G Baker (5) (20%)
  • 9.00 Newcastle – Cinderkamp – E Vaughan (5) (20%)

Best of luck, with all your punting and best of luck to Seville!!

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