Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Epsom Derby 2011

3 Comments

Before I digress, no system bets today, no personal bets and unfortunately 2pts lost yesterday with Crystal Capella.

Thought I’d post some more about the Derby next week being as it’s nearly upon us. Firstly my ante post bet on Nathaniel although a nice price at 40/1 looks like being a bit of a dead duck as John Gosden has stated he’ll only run if there’s some epic downpour in the meantime. In my opinion downpour or not he should run him but then again I’m a bit biased, I still think he’s a lovely colt with a big future ahead of him and I guess if he misses the Derby then I’ll have to recoup my losses in the St Leger. I’ve also backed another based on a trends pick from Formbet but I’ll be honest I’m not overly hopeful of that either, it was at a large price so no harm done. It does though mean I’m going to have to find something else!

Lonesome’s key trends – there are plenty of other useful trends but I’m just simply going with these 10/10 for simplicity, anything that falls down obviously has a few concerns. Though I’m not going to tie myself completely to trends.

·         10/10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6+

·         10/10 winners born before 7th April

·         10/10 winners run 1 or 2 times that season

·         10/10 winners finished in first 2 on all starts that season

·         10/10 ran in the last 35 days

·         10/10 winners had won over 7F+ as a 2yo

·         10/10 winners had had 3 to 5 career starts

·         10/10 winners made their debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track

·         Another key trend – the last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively run 38 times before winning the race. In those 38 starts they had finished outside the first 2 only 3 times, all 3 occasions were on their racecourse debut as a 2 year old.

Apache – A O’Brien (Galileo/Charroux) (100/1)

An expensive to follow maiden, unlikely to run as O’Brien nominated only five as his main runners. Possibly may turn up as a pace maker but I think that job will go to Regent Street. Worth noting the horse that beat him recently Irish Review had previously been put in his place by 12l by another O’Brien inmate Marksmanship. He doesn’t line up here but looks to be potentially very useful. As for Apache he can be safely ignored running or not. Possibly may be used for pace making duties if he runs and may have back to lay potential.

Carlton House – Sir M Stoute (Street Cry/Talented) (13/8)

Winner of the Dante and subsequently the current ante post favourite. Sure to go off favourite on the day and likely to be at prohibitive odds, currently 6/4 and shorter in most places, trading at 2.72 on Betfair. He’s a worthy favourite no doubt but he is certainly too short at the current price let alone what he’ll likely be on the day if the general public get caught up in all the emotion what with the Queen and what not. His maiden appearance on soft ground wasn’t all that special beaten by Pivotman who has since done nothing of note, since then he hacked up in a maiden at Newbury and has obviously won a muddling Dante. Out of Street Cry a winner of the Dubai World Cup a sire that falls down on the sire stamina index, Carlton House was also born on the 30th April so falls down on the age trend, likewise he made his debut at Salisbury. Personally these stats alone would cause a great whacking load of concern in my eyes, the race may come soon into the horses career and the sire’s record with horses over the distance is average at best. I point you to a post made a few weeks back https://lonesomepundit.wordpress.com/2011/05/13/64-about-a-royal-winner/ I could also point to his behaviour pre race at York in going into the stalls and then inability to settle. Anyways enough of the kicking the favourite regime, he does obviously have some positives going for him, having won the key trial being the Dante and having had glowing reports from everyone at Newmarket and being trained by a trainer who knows how to win the race. The Dante run actually I think was pretty decent because despite playing up in the preliminaries and failing to settle he did win well, head in chest. However I’d still be concerned that he wasn’t truly tested over the distance. Not for me therefore. I know several people really like this colt who I’ve spoken to personally but end of the day it’s a game of opinions and in my personal opinion he won’t win the Derby. By all accounts on his recent gallops he’s been tearing his companion to shreds. Prepare to rub egg in my face courtesy of the Queen.

Casamento – M Al Zarooni (40/1)

Moved from Mick Halford in Ireland to Godolphin and Zarooni over the winter. Looked to be the stable’s main Derby hope in the early part of the year, according to the vibes at any rate. A setback to Dubai Prince however meant he ran in the Guineas which I don’t think was the plan, that backfired as Frankel blitzed the field and perhaps caused Casamento some lasting damage in attempting to go the early pace. If he runs which I sense is unlikely according to reports he could bounce back, Roderic O’Connor has for instance but until he’s likely to be confirmed an entrant then I’ll ignore him. If he does run and returns to his form of the Racing Post Trophy then he will definitely have a sporting chance, the form of that race has worked out well. If he does run he becomes interesting.

Castlemorris King – M Attwater (And Beyond/Brookshield Baby) (500/1)

Hopelessly outclassed but seemingly likely to run. Well beaten on all his races so far it will be a miracle if he’s turned Tattenham Corner by the time the winner crosses the line. If you get this colt in a sweepstake then tear up the ticket, failing that try and sell it to an unsuspecting colleague proclaiming Castlemorris King to being the next Pegasus.

Dunboyne Express – K Prendergast (Sharmadal/Love Excelling) (66/1)

Colt who last year looked very decent in winning first two races last year, the first a very hot maiden at Leopardstown in beating Master Of Hounds and Roderic O’Connor. Keep an eye on this year’s maiden in a couple of weeks. Next time out he won a Group 3 in taking fashion albeit from company which hasn’t proved up to the class of his maiden win. Runs since though have marked him down slightly with a somewhat disappointing run in the Racing Post Trophy and then most recently in the Irish Guineas. He’s yet to race over further than 8f so that would be another concern and the fact he’s finished well down the field in a couple of events means he misses one of the key 10/10 trends. If he runs which looks unlikely from price he’ll have his work cut out.

Genius Beast – M Al Zarooni (Kingmambo/Shawanda) (66/1)

Another Godolphin colt who looks unlikely to run, price currently on Betfair is 430. Ran a decent race in the Sandown Classic Trial to beat a number of decent colts including the more fancied here Masked Marvel, last season he kept good company beaten in his maiden by Frankel and Nathaniel, before narrowly being beaten by Picture Editor and Nathaniel, that maiden however doesn’t look as good as I first thought as Audacious and Musnad have let the form down. Beaten in France on his most recent outing behind Prairie Star and Grand Vent. If he runs has place claims.

Manhaj – J Hammond (Medicean/La Dangeville) (100/1)

Won the Prix de Coleville at 2 over 7f hasn’t been seen since out of Medicean who has a sire index of 8.8 he may struggle to get the distance. I’ll be honest I know absolutely nothing about him. Would think he’ll be unlikely to turn up. Beat Bubble Chic who then beat Prairie Star later in this season so may have plenty of ability but again he falls down on a couple of key recent trends and isn’t sure to appear.

Marhaba Malyoon – D Simcock (Tiger Hill/Mamonta) (150/1)

Another who is hopelessly outclassed here won a class 5 maiden last year before coming last of 6 in the Lingfield Derby trial some 22 lengths behind Dordogne. He looks an average handicapper at best and not a Derby entrant. Easily ignored.

Masked Marvel – J Gosden (Montjeu/Waldmark) (25/1)

Colt who looked very useful on maiden performance last season before flattering to deceive on two later runs, firstly at Ascot last season and then on his first appearance this year behind Genius Beast at Sandown. Has since won the Cocked Hat at Goodwood in decent style however I’m not convinced the field was that good with Namibian well beaten yesterday in second and the regressing Picture Editor in third. He did though turn the form around with the 104 rated Auld Burns, which probably means that one is over rated but all the same it wasn’t a bad performance. Falls down on the finishing in the first two starts this season and despite looking like Gosden’s main challenger I think he’s probably got too much on his plate here to get involved with the principles.

Master Of Hounds – A O’Brien (Kingmambo/Silk and Scarlet) (33/1)

Won’t run as Ballydoyle have tweeted he’ll go to Belmont a week later. Price is 1000/1 on Betfair.

Memphis Tennessee – A O’Brien (Hurricane Run/Hit The Sky) (40/1)

Well beaten on debut behind Honey Of A Kitten rated 87, this colt then won an average looking Dundalk before turning up the Derrinstown for his first run this season. At odds of 25/1 that wasn’t a bad run finishing ahead of stable mate Regent Street and the Oxx horse Zanughan, he does though look to have a fair bit to find with Recital let alone any others. Worth noting though that a lot of Aidan O’Brien’s runners have improved for a run this year so he may well show more improvement. Bit of a unknown quality really and from the vibes picked up from the stable “namely 5 look to be in consideration – Recital, Roderic O’Connor, Seville, Treasure Beach and him” he looks likely to run. I wouldn’t be rushing to back him but like At First Sight last year he could spring a surprise, not sure if he’ll be entrusted with pace making duties, didn’t make the running in the Derrinstown.

Nathaniel – J Gosden (Galileo/Magnificent Style) (40/1)

Oh for where art thou Nathaniel! Unlikely to run according to the trainer. Hopefully it chucks it down for the next week though according to the BBC weather for Epsom only looks like light rain on Monday and Tuesday. Bad times .. he does fall down on a couple of the 10/10 trends and being as he’s unlikely to run I won’t compound my misery by going into any more detail. If it does get soft and he runs then I’ll be pleased with my 40/1 each way as I think he’ll have a chance on best form of making the frame.

Native Khan – E Dunlop (Azamour/Viva Maria) (12/1)

Grey colt who fared best of those in the Guineas lining up here, my initial concern would be over the trip having never raced over 8f previously, he does though shape like a horse who needs stepping up in trip and won the Craven in taking fashion this year. He fits a number of the other trends above aside from having finished in the first two. 12/1 does though now look a little bit short for a horse who is untried at the trip and has in the past raced keenly. He certainly deserves to take his place in the line up and could well get involved but he will need to improve. On form lines through Yaseer well beaten in the Dante and from the Racing Post Trophy last year behind Seville fair improvement needed.

Ocean War – M Al Zarooni (Dalakhani/Atlantic Destiny) (20/1)

Godolphin’s likely runner and man of the people’s friend Frankie Dettori. That alone should probably ensure he starts at a shorter price than 20s as the general public will latch onto Frankie as the most well known jockey. The horse doesn’t look to have the potential class to win the Derby and I think at the start of the season Godolphin would have been looking towards the likes of Dubai Prince and Casamento to carry their hopes, beaten in a Sandown maiden last year he’s won both races this term improving both times, firstly in winning a maiden in April which has been franked by a couple of likeable runners winning (Midsummer Sun/Alkimos/Dream Achieved). Notable Maqaraat who was second has been well beaten by another Godolphin horse Hunter’s Light this week, he could be very interesting. Next time Ocean War beat the 101 rated Cai Shen in a listed stakes race, the runner up has since been well beaten in a handicap. Namibian also appeared that day though the stable was out of form so I wouldn’t take the form lines with Masked Marvel too closely. The form overall however doesn’t look strong enough to me and if the public come for Ocean War he is potential lay material if too short. 20/1 looks about right to me and he could well prove me wrong and continue to improve.

Pisco Sour – H Morrison (Lemon Drop Kid/Lynwood Chase) (100/1)

Carried out the pace making duties in the Dante, will surely not be allowed to do the same in this race. He looks somewhat outclassed on previous form and his proximity to Carlton House and Seville was likely down to the pace at York.

Pour Moi – A Fabre (Montjeu/Gwynn) (9/2)

The talking horse in recent days thanks to his gallop at Epsom the other morning and subsequent bullish talk from Andre Fabre. In my opinion the form of this one doesn’t stack up enough, well beaten on debut he then won a conditions race on soft beating a horse called Oppenort that one this year was beaten by Grand Vent who doesn’t look no world beater. First time out this season Pour Moi was beaten by Baraan and Prairie Star who if you recall beat Genius Beast narrowly. His win in the Prix Grefulhe recently seems to be the main motivation behind the price plunge there he beat Bubble Chic by a length – who was beaten a mile by Recital at the back end of last year and also by Manhaj. Also in that race and not miles behind was a horse of John Gosden’s called Questioning who is rated 101 and been beaten by the likes of Auld Burns and Fury the latter by a similar distance. He falls down on a number of trends not least the form this season and the two times he’s raced on ground without soft in the description he’s finished 8/10 and 3/5 yet here he is at 9/2. Madness in my opinion, no way should he be ahead of the likes of Recital, Seville and Native Khan in the market. He is definitely lay material in my opinion and can actually be laid for small money at 2.06 on the place market, which looks a pretty sane move to me.

Recital – A O’Brien (Montjeu/Dibenoise) (8/1)

Quirky Montjeu type who started life in a Navan maiden winning easily before absolutely bolting up on heavy ground in the Criterium St Cloud, behind that day were Bubble Chic and Prairie Star who have form lines with others. This season he was then beaten in a strange Ballysax at short odds behind stablemate Regent Street before improving to win the Derrinstown, admittedly he should have won the Derrinstown but there were a few question marks over his temperament in hanging to the left after hitting the front. Quite likely he won’t be in front so soon here so that may not be an issue. Trip won’t be a problem and he fits a number of the above trends only falls down on debut track and in first two this year. The jockey booking will be key to this one in my opinion as I think if Fallon chooses him ahead of Native Khan then he’ll have a much better chance with Fallon not only in great form but having a terrific record round Epsom. He looks potentially to me like the possible Workforce in one who could absolutely bolt up at the same time he could flatter to deceive. The Derrinstown doesn’t look particularly brilliant form as the runner up and Regent Street don’t look world beaters but the Criterium run is definitely one of the best pieces of form in the race. If Fallon’s on board then I’d probably consider having a bet.

Regent Street – A O’Brien (Galileo/Hanami) (100/1)

Unlikely to run going by odds, would be a pacemaker if he did run. I’d expect O’Brien to run one pacemaker to ensure a strong gallop but no real clues who will do the job. He’s looked a tough horse in his own right so won’t be 1000/1 if he runs and may like Apache reward in running players.

Roderic O’Connor – A O’Brien (Galileo/Secret Garden) (16/1)

Irish Guineas winner just two weeks ago, will this event come too soon is the question. He’s had a hard race in the English Guineas and then likewise in the Irish one. Step up in trip may be somewhat of an issue but obviously has a lot of class and won the Criterium International at the back end of last year. He’s still in the St James Palace so connections may be thinking of taking on Frankel again. If he does turn up though he will fit a fair number of trends aside from having raced too much and finished 11th in one race this year. The dam is out of Danehill who does seem better at mile distances. I’d be concerned firstly whether he’d be fresh after the Curragh and secondly whether he’ll get the trip. 23.0 on Betfair doesn’t seem to indicate much regards whether he’ll run. I also think the Irish Guineas wasn’t a great race so all in all would pass him over.

Seville – A O’Brien (Galileo/Silverskaya) (8/1)

Made debut in a decent looking race behind Dubai Prince at Gowran, front three pulled miles clear and although Seville was beaten he was green once in the open and continued to close on Dubai Prince towards the finish. Obligation who was third had already raced, a horse further behind some 15l back was the beaten 3l by Recital. Next time out he won a 4 runner maiden with consummate ease, sent to the Racing Post Trophy next he was beaten by Casamento but was ahead of the likes of Native Khan, Dunboyne Express, Master Of Hounds and Dubawi Gold. That wasn’t by any means a bad run on good to soft ground. Lastly he appeared in the Dante and although well beaten ultimately by Carlton House but I do think there were excuses – namely the gallop set by Pisco Sour which wouldn’t have suited anyone, he looks to me a horse who needs time to get into gear watch his maiden race for instance, well worth a review, the ride from Soumillon to me looked like he was coasting when challenging Pisco Sour, almost failing to notice Carlton House arriving on the scene. He gave him a few smacks and then pretty much gave up the ghost once Carlton House had gone past, powder-puff was I think what someone mentioned on Twitter I’d agree. Lastly every horse this season from the yard has improved for a run and in most cases astronomically see Roderic O’Connor and Misty For Me as the best examples. He fits most of the 10/10 trends aside from making debut at Gowran and being born on the 10th April.

Treasure Beach – A O’Brien (Galileo/Honorine) (40/1)

Winner of this year’s Chester Vase which in itself was a good run but the race doesn’t have a good record of finding winners in the Derby. He did though win well that day under a good Moore ride battling on to outpace Nathaniel, I do though think the latter would prefer a straighter more galloping type of track. Treasure Beach for most of his two year old campaign looked unlikely to be reaching the top level having lost a maiden then narrowly won at odds of 4/11. He did appear in the Royal Lodge behind Frankel, some way behind admittedly but Klammer who was second and just in front then went on to the Horris Hill. The distance will obviously be no trouble having won at 1m 4f at Chester but I think Ryan Moore’s opinion after the race that he’d have to improve a lot tells a story. He probably lacks the class of the main contenders and although could well improve he’s not for me.

Vadamar – A de Royer-Dupre (Dalakani/Vadawina) (33/1)

Last of the lot another French raider whom I don’t know a great deal about. Well beaten by Pour Moi his two wins came on very soft and heavy ground although the latter was against Grand Vent who has a few form lines, I’d expect the opposite at Epsom ground wise. I can’t imagine he’ll turn the tables with Pour Moi and being as I don’t rate that ones chances much I rate this chap even less. It’s a case of the French not being very good in my opinion.

Overview

A lot depends on Carlton House naturally as favourite but having already pretty much outlined why I don’t think he’ll win it’s a case of finding one to beat him. I’d expect Aidan O’Brien to ensure a strong gallop and run a pacemaker and although everything I’ve read about Carlton House getting the trip no problem, I still have my doubts. Likewise he has a temperament issue going on York and could take a while to settle. He could prove me totally wrong and be another Stoute wonder horse and it would be terrific for the Queen and country alike but I have to especially at the odds look elsewhere. The one I’m taking against him is Seville to continue Galileo’s fine record in Classic’s this year. Seville’s dam Silverskaya wasn’t a bad horse winning a couple of Group 3’s one over 13f before being beaten 1l in the Prix Vermeille and 6l in the 2004 Arc de Triomphe. I think he’ll improve for the run, he’ll have no problems over the trip and hopefully they won’t go a sedate pace so allowing him to get into stride and then continue instead of like a Carlton House in the Dante turning things into a sprint, I’m not saying though Carlton House wouldn’t win if a pacemaker was used. At the prices for me I’d have to go with the O’Brien horse. Recital is the other one that interests me and he is worth a small saver, if Fallon rides all the better. Nathaniel if he runs then I’ll be happy with my ante post bet on him. I’d add if you want to be cautious Seville looks a great each way bet. Pour Moi I feel is now too short in the betting and purely seems to be that price because of Andre Fabre’s words this week. The other problem we obviously have is whether O’Brien actually runs Seville or sends him to France or wherever but well got to take them chances!

Selections

3pt win Seville @ 9.8 (Betfair) 8/1 (Paddy Power/Sporting Bet/Stan James)

1pt win Recital @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

I will put some pictures up later so space out the words, WordPress is pissing me off though with a change of style and the inability to upload anything though. Best of luck, Lonesome Pundit.

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3 thoughts on “Epsom Derby 2011

  1. AP O’Brien has (in my opinion) a strong hand in the Derby. If he cannot find a place in the race for ADMIRAL OF THE RED who won his 2nd start over 12f massacring the opposition and who is entered for King Edward VII (Royal Ascot) and Irish Derby; then what he has got running for him must be good. Fallon has opted for RECITAL over Native Khan which (to me) is a big pointer. But I also like the chance of TREASURE BEACH who did nothing wrong at Chester, and 3yo horses sent to Chester by O’Brien for the May meeting usually tend to be amongst the best in his stable.

  2. What did I say about O’Brien sending his best 3yo’s to Chester for the May meeting? TREASURE BEACH just failed by a head losing the lead just 5 yards before the line! If I were you, I would look closely at the chances of ADMIRAL OF THE RED when it next runs.

  3. ホリスター,hollister 店舗

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