Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Lonesome on the Lockinge

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Another solid day yesterday, becoming a recurring theme, somewhat bizarrely, as Wrekin Sunset defied her odds of 25/1 to snatch a place. Although she was advised at 33/1 there were a couple of non runners after I posted so I’ll work out the profit based on the 25/1 that she started at, so with Askar Tau running below his best and Murbeh a non runner 3pts banked on the day. With the previous two day’s tally of 25pts it’s been a great week and certainly paid to stick to the better racing around. Another excellent day’s racing today and tomorrow no less over in France. Today though is all about Canford Cliffs and stablemate Dick Turpin though there are plenty of tricky looking handicaps for those of you who love to solve them!

1.45 Newmarket – Initially I was going to leave this race alone, and I also then wanted to stick my cash on the Balding runner Brick Red, who although under par so far this year ran well last year and has a decent record at the track, his last appearance here was over a furlong further and he was going ok until reaching the dip. 16/1 is a big price if he returns to some sort of form, he’s also down in class in here, perhaps worth a little saver. The one though that I’m going with is the one I think is potentially some way better than his mark. That horse is the Godolphin owned Con Artist, price wise he’s not extravagant at 4/1 across the board and potentially he may be found wanting carrying top weight first time out this season, but on some of his form last year he could well make up into a 100+ rated animal. Suroor looks to be finding some sort of form with a couple of winners this week and he has a solid record at Newmarket unlike many of the others in this field, Richard Fahey for one. The horse himself last ran at Sandown and based on his performance there and marks of his rivals now he has to have a great chance of 93. Jet Away won that race by a neck and is now rated 105 but beat the 114 Sri Putra and 116 Passion for Gold the other day, Senate won a couple of handicaps subsequently off 87 and 95, now rated 101. Sharayeen who was beaten by Con Artist by 3 lengths and given 9lb has since gone very close a few weeks back off 93, whilst last but not least Right Step has gone close on several pounds higher. I just think off 93 here and dropped back in trip slightly he could prove much the best if the absence isn’t a problem. There’s obviously potentially some smart improvers in the race, plenty to name but I think Con Artist will win for the boys in blue.

  • 3pt win Con Artist @ 4/1

3.10 Newbury – All eyes here will be on Dominant and mine were too but he’s now 7/4 in places and although he could win effortlessly, I’d have some reservations, namely he’s gone up 6lb for that run last time out and he’s up in class, he was obviously hampered but 6lb rise and 7/4 in a better race? Not for me admittedly though the trainer is in fine form and the horse is a class animal. One I do like though at a much bigger price and one who I think can run well upped in trip is the James Toller trained Loving Spirit. This colt was so well thought of by connections he ran in the Guineas, albeit had little chance in the Frankel inspired race I do though think with a lot of horses well beaten you can draw a line through the race. It was something of a freak race with Frankel taking everything out of their comfort zone. Loving Spirit was well beaten in ninth and it’s not overly easy to review his run as the camera focuses on Frankel so much, but he ran on reasonably okay looking the step up would suit. His maiden is working out reasonably well and his second run he was ahead of Dordogne who won the Lingfield Derby Trial off 103, Whey Sauce also was behind and she didn’t run a terrible race in the Musidora. 10/1 I think is fairly generous as on previous form he has the best in the book and if the Guineas doesn’t take too much out of him he could well win this. There are a number of other useful runners in here bar the two I’ve mentioned and I’d expect General Synod to win a decent race some day and likewise Fulgur should prove some way better than his mark of 83.

  • 1.5pt e/w Loving Spirit @ 10/1

3.45 Newbury – I’d already bunged up Red Jazz each way at 16s earlier in the week. So won’t be going in again on anything else. I have actually backed another but that’s down to a Formbet trend pick so will let those two fight it out for me. Red Jazz can now be backed at 20/1 which I think is obviously an even better price as in my opinion he has a good chance of making the top three at minimum. He’s never won over a mile which would be a slight concern but his only two attempts were firstly in the Guineas well beaten eighth behind Canford Cliffs and Dick Turpin and then when beaten less than a length to Poet’s Voice and Rip Van Winkle good form especially as Makfi was behind who’d beaten Canford and Dick in the Guineas, he also beat Goldikova, it’s possible Makfi wasn’t up to form that day but still it was a decent run. Red Jazz following that Ascot run then ran over 7f at Newmarket – this was a fantastic performance as although he got 2lb from most of his rivals the majority were older. Behind that day were Delegator who advertised the form well this week, a load of other decent animals and Dream Eater who was beaten 9 lengths – a fair bit further than Dick Turpin and Cityscape beat him by a few weeks back. Obviously different races and run at different pace but I do think at 20s Red Jazz is a good each way price. I did mull over going in again but will settle for my 16s from earlier, I sense he may get backed into around that. The Hills stable have hit a fair bit of form recently and although Canford and Dick Turpin and not forgetting Twice Over are the classiest horses in here I’m willing to take them on.

  • 1pt e/w Red Jazz @ 16/1 Already advised – can be backed at 20s.

Not got time to mull over anything else though I did look at a fair few who I expect to run well; Parlour Games in the 3.25 and Ships Biscuit in the 2.00 being the main ones.

Will post later regards the system bets, but going forward I’m not going to track the test bets. Not worth my time.

Good luck, LP

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