Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

6/4 about a Royal winner?

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Another 5pts banked yesterday thanks to St Moritz, the profits keep on rolling so may as well keep at it, in the hope of a more lucky breaks. The Dante meeting comes to a close today with another batch of terrific races and to supplement it today we have some excellent racing elsewhere also – namely meetings at Newbury and Newmarket, plus a decent little meeting at Hamilton including a Class 1 race – that can’t happen too often in the calendar year. Meetings at Newcastle and Aintree are also taking place, it does make you wonder why some days like last Sunday for instance we had three jumps meetings and today we have five decent flat meetings, Racing For Change could look at some of the scheduling … It’s definitely a day to stick Racing UK on though and sit back and watch.

Looking back quickly yesterday on the Dante, my own initial impression was one like most others I’d guess that it was a muddling, unsatisfactory race. The winner Carlton House did win well but at his current price of 6/4 in some places personally I’d be looking to lay him not that I’m going to but I’d oppose him ahead of backing him 100% at that price. I’d have been wary even about taking 3/1 about him if it was available. Why you may ask? After all he’s won the best recent trial. Well yes he has, but he also failed to settle and played up before hand, the race was unsatisfactory – slow gallop – time 3 seconds slower than the Middleton as a guide. Take nothing away from the way he won the race with the speed influence coming through and once he did settle he performed imperiously above the rest. Out of Street Cry the sire himself has a record which is much better over mile distances. See below .. hardly a stamina influence.

 

His dam Talented was a useful animal but again 1m 4f seems the extreme of her capabilities having never won over further than 10f. Look I may be jumping on him a bit, but I’d expect the Derby to be a much truer gallop, O’Brien pacemaker and what not, the 12f therefore I’d expect to stretch Carlton House and at 6/4 sorry I couldn’t back him in a month of Sundays especially as you have those other factors to take into account – playing up at start, not settling, Epsom track. Any opinions on him mind are welcome and abuse of my lack of sires knowledge! Who would I back aside from the almost forgotten Nathaniel? Well from the Dante I’d stick my neck on the line and say World Domination at 20/1 but obviously he may not turn up. Though I sense if Abdulla’s Sea Moon doesn’t turn up he may yet run. Hell is now the time to supplement Frankel – I will look at the trends and a few other things nearer the time.

Enough of that though, unless anyone does want to discuss it by all means, was going to sling up loads more words tonight but I’m going to be swift.

2.30 York – Tricky little puzzle but the one I like is as per normal one who I know acts round the course, acts on the ground and is in form. That horse is Marcus Tregoning’s Askar Tau, he has a few pounds to find on the principles in here and I sense he may well drift from his current best price of 11/2 but I do fancy his chances. He’s a course winner and over this 14f trip he’s 3 from 5, stays further, stable remains in superb form. Question marks surround a couple of others regards the trip namely Duncan who is top quality but may need the run and Native Ruler who may bounce after a great run the other week. Askar Tau also has a good record on good/good to firm ground unlike Manighar and Clowance who seem to act better with some cut in it. He’s beaten Free Agent easily last time out and Electroyser although one who runs well first time after a break tends not to win very often. Confident Askar Tau will run a big race. 

  • 2pt win Askar Tau @ 11/2 Various

3.00 York – I’m kind of in two minds with this one. A somewhat mad mind additionally whether to play small or big. Wrekin Sunset is officially rated 30lb behind Theyskens Theory and as such should have zero chance of winning and be more like a 100/1 shot, but I think she may just amaze us all! There’s no real logical reason aside from the fact I read in the Racing Post a few days ago that the trainer was happy to look at blowing a mark of 78 to run here, seems somewhat foolish if she does run well being as there could be some nice handicap around off the mark of 78 and she’s run three times, twice on heavy and well beaten and then once on good to firm last time out at Haydock. She won that day in the process beating a horse I really liked from last year Rainbow Springs rated 100 off level weights. Perhaps it was a fluke and perhaps Rainbow Springs is overrated but she also beat Blaisse who has since won and well I just think at 33/1 she could be worth a nibble. There’s obviously a number of other useful fillies in this field but I think if Rainbow Springs was entered she’d be vying for favouritism. Brian Meehan’s yard isn’t quite firing and Theyskens may need the run first time up – fingers crossed.

  • 1pt  e/w Wrekin Sunset @ 33/1 Paddy Power/Stan James

4.00 Newmarket – Seal Rock is rightly favourite in here and may well win effortlessly but I’m prepared to oppose him with another and somewhat ironically considering I’ve just bleated on about the Meehan yard’s form it’s a Meehan horse in Murbeh. He’s rated 95 so carries top weight in here last season he won his maiden nicely beating a couple of useful sorts in Moriarty and Cai Shen, he then won a sales race at Ripon as on figures he should have done, before being sent off joint second favourite for a 21 runner bigger sales race where he finished 6 lengths behind Wootton Bassett, next time on soft ground he ran slightly below par, the ground may have been an issue and his only run this season was behind Perfect Tribute since won again in what was a very quick time. He had to give weight to a number of rivals that day and to finish within 3 lenghts wasn’t a bad effort. This race is 2 classes lower and yes Seal Rock could easily hack up but I just fancy Murbeh may prove a decent nut to crack, forecast price of 4/1 hopefully he’ll open up a bit bigger is currently 9/2 on Betfair. I’d take anything above 7/2 to be honest.

  • 1pt win Murbeh

I was mulling over some others namely Edinburgh Knight who seems to find very little but always travels supremely and a couple of short ones but for today I’ll stick with the above on a terrific day’s action.

Best of luck, LP

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