Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

The Way Ahead ..

3 Comments

Have reviewed the system results overnight, I should hasten to add these exclude Saturday’s as I’ve not inputted these yet, the figures are below in raw form, the picture isn’t all that pretty. Going forward I’ve decided to knock on the head tracking the trainer/jockey combination over the 7 week period all selections from this system have turned a 42pt loss, not great. The Trainer One Runner system without any filtering has been much profitable only showing a loss of 6.89pts, this seems bad but as I say has no filtering applied and is it to Industry SP. The Jockey system currently is also operating at a small loss. As such to reduce the time it takes me to do the systems each night/morning I’ll only be tracking the Trainer One Runner and Jockey One Runner systems going forward. The table below quickly tracks all results since March 4th for all systems this is without any filtering whatsoever so all classes of race, all types of race.

Looking at the Trainer One Runner in more detail the next table highlights the runners per type of race and then by class – just using all selections from the 7 and 14 day statistics. Just wiping out Class 1 races alone takes the system into healthy profit.

 

Combining a few of those and playing around I managed to come up with this one .. Flat and All Weather handicap races from classes 3,  4 and 5. Will still monitor other classes and all types of races not handicaps i.e. Maidens and what not. Now I know there’s not going to be a lot of selections here so will look into tweaking the criteria to find selections and see if that improves the numbers, namely by allowing trainers with a 27% win s/r and 40% place s/r qualify. In addition I’m going to start tracking trainer’s record at a course. Will look back over the old ones in time. The Jockey One Runner remains purely in testing and I will look at in greater detail later this week. Note there were no class 3, 4 or 5 races that qualified on Saturday.

Selections for today are below – note we now have the Lonesome System and Testing, trainers with a 27% win rate and 40% place are currently in testing mode as well as the jockey test. The figures after the trainers name represent which list the trainer appears on 7 day or 14, class of race and then trainers win percentage at course. Best bet of the day looks to be Bawaardi he does have a pretty smart Godolphin horse to beat and the frustrating but talented Mata Keranjang.  Any questions do ask.

The jumps I’m leaving well alone now until October from a system point of view, may put up a few personal bets over the sticks in the meantime. Will also have another look at the Guineas meeting later on this week see if I can amend my lame duck selection of Strong Suit with a winner against Frankel haha!

  • Lonesome System
  • 4.10 Yarmouth – Bawaardi – R Fahey (TOR7) (3) (27.6%)
  • 4.10 Yarmouth – Swiss Cross – G Butler (TOR14) (3) (5%)

 

  • Testing
  • 4.00 Lingfield – Shelovestoboogie – H Cecil (TOR7) (5) (15.3%)
  • 4.00 Lingfield – Suomi – J Fanshawe (TOR14) (5) (15.9%)
  • 4.00 Lingfield – Bop Till Dawn – H Dunlop (TOR14) (5) (6.8%)
  • 5.00 Lingfield – Officer Lily – J Best (TOR14) (6) (8%)
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3 thoughts on “The Way Ahead ..

  1. Looks good stuff.
    Ignoring Class 1 races in the “trainer 1 runner” is the way to go as the value (prestige) of these races makes them unsuitable. I’d rather wager on a trainer making a 400-mile round trip with one horse for a class 4 handicap worth £5,000, than a trainer making a similar trip for a class 1 race worth £100,000+.

  2. Class 1 races and Class 2 to an extent have in the two months I’ve been tracking performed pretty appallingly. I’d also go the other way and say Class 6 races, haven’t had the pleasure of a Class 7 all weather runner yet also need swerving. The price money is the complete opposite at that end and trainers don’t target it, whilst as you say the more competitive stuff is 1) much harder to win and 2) a more attainable target for a trainer sending a horse on a 400 mile trip.

    Some interesting runners at Perth tomorrow, which is a helluva trip for a number of trainers, Dartnall’s pair tomorrow interest me most.

  3. Pingback: Stats Update | Lonesome Pundit

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