Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Back to the garden. Once More ..

2 Comments

Solid day yesterday as selections from Bet Buddy and Bechers Brook both turned a profit yet again. My own personal bets also ended in profit up +8pts thanks purely to The Jigsaw Man who was available at bigger than 18s during the morning before being backed into 15/2. One thing I have learnt is to look away from the market rivals and this one was a resounding success. You can be wrong 17 times but turn a profit if finding an 18/1 whereas backing the odds on shots you need to be right more than 50% of the time. Another disappointing day however for the systems and I’ve decided on time grounds to look at changing things. April has been pretty brutal for every horse I’ve put from all the systems and when I get the chance to go back and look at the stats I’m confident everything will be showing a big loss.

So you may ask what are you going to track now? Well in a nutshell I’m not sure at the moment but I’m going to keep looking at the Trainers and Jockeys in form – perhaps with one runner, perhaps more. I do want however look at incorporation course form into things, for instance Paul Mulrennan’s record at Nottingham was 4% which would automatically want to make you swerve his runners, the James Given runner Subramiam ridden by Mulrennan would have been an old system bet yesterday but the course form of the jockey automatically concerned me. What I want to track initially and have done so today is any horse from a trainer who has had a 25% win strike rate in past 14 days – ignoring the 7 day for now – a 40% place strike rate and a 20% course strike rate. From there the Jockey on board must have a 15% strike rate at the track for it to be a selection. For now I’m going to monitor all selections. I’ll look at the jockeys tonight/tomorrow.

I also want to look at the laying side of things in greater detail. As pointed out yesterday Jimmy The Lollipop was the one I most wanted to take on and he was comprehensively beaten, to find selections here the trainer must have had less than 10% win rate in past 14 days, 30% place rate, must be less than 10% at course and the horse must not be a course winner. I don’t expect it will pull many back. The other thing is I’ll only be tracking any that are less than 4/1.

Selections for both below. As far as today’s racing goes, Sandown looks a card to review later with a number of key trials and handy looking 3 year olds running. I do fancy a couple in the 3.50 and will put them up as personal bets, to me both look likely in time to be the best horses in this field, I think the Hannon pair are probably over rated slightly and although they do have a fitness edge can be taken on whilst Dordogne from the Johnston yard again a good horse, but I’d be wary about backing anything from his yard. The two I like are Genius Beast from Zarooni who is in terrific form and this horse got to within 5 lengths of Frankel on his debut he was then beaten narrowly by Picture Editor and Nathaniel again at Doncaster before winning a maiden in soft/heavy ground at Haydock. 10/1 looks a little big. The other one I like is 33/1 for the Derby and if he’s going to even line up there he needs to perform well here and I’d say likely win, that is Masked Marvel from the Gosden stable, he was 11/1 last night and been backed into 8s in most place, 10/1 still available with Ladbrokes. He won his maiden over the Sandown course before getting bumped early and running a little excitable at Ascot upped in class. I wouldn’t normally play a dutch but in this case I think one of these two will win and I’d be happy to play them against the field.

  • 3.50 Sandown – Genius Beast 1pt win @ 10/1 Ladbrokes
  • 3.50 Sandown – Masked Marvel 1pt win @ 10/1 Ladbrokes
Going to repost the new system bets shortly after I’ve figured them out, I wouldn’t advise backing them solely due to the system, it’s purely in testing mode again.
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2 thoughts on “Back to the garden. Once More ..

  1. I think there’s still some mileage in your system and I wouldn’t give up yet. The obvious flaw to me though is that it doesn’t take into account the ability of the horse in any way. Now it should throw up some decent priced winners from time to time but you could be backing a lot of mediocre horses along the way. Why not include some kind of moderator such as ‘must be in the top 50% of RPRs, timeform ratings, betting or Topspeed’. Whichever you personally prefer and whatever % you feel appropriate. This will obviously result in fewer selections but hopefully they will have a better chance of winning. You may be able to try this out fairly easily on your historical selections to see if it’s worthwhile. The other thing to consider is that you could use Profit/Loss rather than % for the 14 day trainer form which may be a more realistic guide to a trainers current form. Hope this helps. Well done with The Jigsaw Man. Best of Luck. Seanos1.

  2. Cheers for the comment Seanos1, you are spot on regards not taking the horse into account. I think ultimately I will continue to look at using the systems in some way but I do need to use other filters such as the trainer course form, horses actual ability – form, ground conditions etc. As such it will become more of a guide to use in selecting horses and identifying a few runners each day which will have chances. Instead of bunging up every runner here and there.
    Good luck with your blog also, will put up a link.
    Cheers Rich

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