Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

In two minds ..

7 Comments

From a great day to a bit of a shocker yesterday. No returns from Bet Buddy or Bechers Brook – I must have cursed the latter. One can hope not, I’ve no concerns about either as the prices are such that you need to expect losing days more often than not.

The system bets were disappointing again and although Szabo’s Destiny won @ 12/1 for the test systems, I’m more worried by the lack of a winner for the Combined Optimum systems which have now gone 17 without a winner which does seem quite a big streak, the S/R was running about 25% at my last update so it’s definitely hit a sticky patch. I’m in two minds what to do overall really, whether to go back and test everything or just concentrate on the trainer one runner angle, the trainer/jockey system hasn’t been performing as well and although I need to analyse the stats I feel it’s dragging down everything else. The other thing to remember is of course the small sample size. I’m thinking perhaps just concentrate on trainers with one runner and jockeys with one ride. I’d also tweak the selection process to something like a 25% win strike rate, 40% place strike rate and a 20% course strike rate. It may pull back a lot less selections but hopefully be a bit more solid. Anyways something to chew on .. I’ll have a look what if anything fits that system today, the other systems are below. Annoyingly 2 runners in 2 races for the optimum but fingers crossed we find 2 winners.

  • COMBINED OPTIMUM
  • 2.10 Southwell – Robemaker – J Gosden (TOR14) (5)
  • 2.10 Southwell – Firebeam – W Haggas (TORBOTH) (5)
  • 7.50 Kempton – Parlour Games – M Al Zarooni (TORBOTH) (4)
  • 7.50 Kempton – Songjiang – J Gosden/W Buick (TJBOTH) (4)

  • TESTING
  • 2.10 Southwell – Firebeam – W Haggas/L Jones (TJ7) (5)
  • 2.20 Hereford – Sizing Ireland – N Henderson/A P McCoy (TJ7) (5)
  • 2.35 Epsom – Zigato – J Gosden/W Buick (TJBOTH) (3)
  • 2.35 Epsom – Mister Angry – M Johnston/L Dettori (TJBOTH) (3)
  • 3.10 Epsom – Musawama – J Gosden/R Hills (TJ14) (2)
  • 3.30 Hereford – FInlay – D McCain/J Maguire (TJ7) (4)
  • 3.30 Hereford – Intac – C Tizzard/J Tizzard (TJ7) (4)
  • 3.45 Epsom – Beachfire – J Gosden/W Buick (TJBOTH) (2)
  • 3.45 Epsom – Sand Skier – M Johnston/L Dettori (TJBOTH) (2)
  • 3.45 Epson – Taqleed – J Gosden/R Hills (TJ14) (2)
  • 4.05 Hereford – Castlerock – J O’Neill/A P McCoy (TJ7) (4)
  • 4.20 Epsom – Danish Pastry – J Gosden/W Buick (TJBOTH) (5)
  • 5.00 Southwell – Spic ‘n Span – R Harris/L Morris (TJ7) (6)
  • 5.45 Hereford – Cardinal Rose – J O’Neill/A P McCoy (TJ7) (6)
  • 6.00 Southwell – Decider – R Harris/L Morris (TJ7) (6)
  • 6.50 Kempton – Miss Dutee – R Hannon/P Dobbs (TJ7) (5)
  • 7.20 Kempton – Aqiaal – J Gosden/R Hills (TJ14) (6)
  • 7.35 Newcastle – Trading – T Easterby/D Fentiman (TJ7) (6)

  • JOCKEY ONE RIDE
  • None Today
Good luck, from a downbeat Lonesome Pundit.
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7 thoughts on “In two minds ..

  1. Quickly looking at the latter system .. i.e. Trainer/Jockey with one runner/ride and a 25% win rate, 40% place rate and 20% course s/r the following would qualify from either the 7 or 14 day statistics. I think perhaps not using the course s/r is something I’ve been neglecting.

    2.10 Southwell – Robemaker – J Gosden
    2.10 Southwell – Firebeam – W Haggas

    No others which is surprising even amending the stats, Ed Dunlop runs one at Epsom who would fit Baqaat, but his course s/r is 1 from 15.

  2. Hi,
    Interesting you are considering the course s/r filter. You’ve certainly got me thinking about more focus on the win % s/r either 14 or 7 days, as opposed to the place %. For example R Varian is 3 out of 8 last 14 days = 37.5% win s/r. He’s had no places just those winners I quote. Under my system (>40% placed) he wouldn’t qualify. But I’m now thinking surely a trainer with 37.5% win s/r is someone I need to be interested in. Keep thinking and tweaking!! One other for today was Sizing Ireland, not sure on price though. GL.

  3. Hi Neil,

    Will respond to your email when I get a chance, thanks some really interesting stuff in it. The Sizing Ireland one I didn’t have as a trainer one runner job as Hendo sends three to Hereford, although his strike rate at the course is a pretty healthy 36% so all three have a chance. Sizing Ireland is 1/3 so I’ll be giving him a miss.

    Cheers Rich

  4. Of course the other way to look at it, is back all runners and not just focus on the one runner element.

  5. Hi, No probs – yes Sizing Ireland too short. AP great record for Hendo but agree price not right. Robemaker and Parlour Games for me.

  6. Can’t even get a 1/3 shot to win .. depressing stuff.

  7. Chin up dude. It’s not exactly the easiest time to be making money on the flat IMO, so there’s no need getting downhearted about it. Keep the faith and things will improve hopefully.

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