Got to be quick today, snowed under somewhat. Yesterday was another disastrous day for the systems, I can console myself somewhat that I only played the optimum bets and despite all the discussion about each way only 1 of the 4 placed so that would also have been a negative, alas it’s early days still. Today there are plenty more testing bets – no optimum selections today – it’s worth noting though that from every selection I’ve put up this week Optimum/Testing/Jockey has so far returned 69 selections with only 6 winners and a level stakes loss of -48.14. Therefore if there’s a lesson to take from this week it’s not to back every selection blindly. The Optimum bets are still well in the positive though so I’m not tweaking them yet …
2.50 Ayr – I like the chances of Cockney Trucker in here. Since reverting back over hurdles this game animal from the Hobbs yard has run well in a hot handicap at Cheltenham behind Alarazi and Art Professor he gave the former 16lb and was beaten 8 lenghts, Alarazi next time out won the Imperial Cup beating Via Gallilei also in this race with a 3lb swing. Next up Cockney Trucker ran superbly in the County Hurdle 2 lengths behind Final Approach and Get Me Out Of Here. Nearby was infront that day narrowly but he has risen in the weights and looks a tad high in them. Salden Licht was also behind that day and he ran well at Aintree. Cockney’s next start was at Newbury in a race where he was fancied to win and although beaten by Rio Gael the pair were some way clear. Rio Gael ran okay at Aintree fading over 4f further. He also beat Hunterview back in December off top weight giving Hunterview 3lb and a 20 length beating. L’Accordioniste who won that race now races off 140 and giving the weight difference then Cockney Trucker strikes me as a 140 type animal. Here are a couple of trends in case you’re considering lumping onto Mille Chief or Overturn or Nearby for that matter.
- All 19 horses attempting to carry 11-0+ in this since 2001 have been beaten, and only 3 have been placed.
- Top Weight: 6UP3UF897946F (0-0-13) has a shocking record in this.
- In the last 4 years all 12 placed finishers were officially rated 141 or lower
All points to a decent each way chance for me, going by the last stat the three to pick from would be Cockney Trucker, Via Gallilei and Hunterview. Almost tempted to do a tricast.
- 1pt e/w Cockney Trucker @ 15/2 Paddy Power
I’ve not looked at any other races, Gone To Lunch fits three of the systems below but the fact he’s racing some way out of the handicap puts me off, I actually think Neptune Collonges could run well and I also like Always Right who’s a progressive lightly raced chaser, he’d be my choice if I had a firm one. As for the flat well it looks like being a John Gosden benefit day at Haydock and I’d expect both Rainbow Springs (a horse who I like for the Oaks) and Nathaniel to win easily. Frankel should also win but I’d be more than happy if Strong Suit beats him to help my little Guineas ante post bet, Hannon’s stable is in form and the ground will suit Strong Suit. Though Frankel is a machine, I do think if Strong Suit drifts to about 5/1 though he may be worth a little nibble in the case Frankel flops. The rest of the card looks tricky and best left alone.
- COMBINED OPTIMUM
- 2.15 Leicester – Ebraam – R Harris/L Morris (TJBOTH) (4)
- 2.50 Ayr – Via Galilei – G Moore/J Moore (TJ7) (1)
- 3.00 Ripon – Montaff – M Channon/S Hitchcott (TJBOTH) (2)
- 3.10 Newbury – Excelebration – M Botti/A Kirby (TJBOTH) (1)
- 3.25 Ayr – No Panic – P Bowen/T O’Brien (TJBOTH) (1)
- 3.25 Ayr – Gone To Lunch – J Scott/N Schofield (TJ14) (1)
- 3.25 Ayr – Gone To Lunch – J Scott (TOR14) (1)
- 3.25 Ayr – Cold Mountain – J Mullins (TOR7) (1)
- 3.35 Ripon – Highlife Dancer – M Channon/S Hitchcott (TJBOTH) (5)
- 3.45 Newbury – Lowther – A Bailey (TOR14) (2)
- 4.10 Ripon – Vieria da Silva – M Channon/S Hitchcott (TJBOTH) (5)
- 4.45 Ripon – Galloping Queen – M Channon/S Hitchcott (TJBOTH) (5)
- 4.45 Ripon – Madison Square – M Al Zarooni (TORBOTH) (5)
- 4.50 Newbury – Laajooj – M Al Zarooni/M Barzalona (TJ7) (4)
- 5.10 Doncaster – Profile Star – D Barron (TOR7) (4)
- 6.15 Doncaster – Fareer – E Dunlop (TORBOTH) (1)
- 7.20 Doncaster – Breakheart – M Dods/F Tylicki (TJ7) (3)
- JOCKEY ONE RUNNER
- 3.25 Ayr – Gone To Lunch – N Schofield (JOR7) (1)