Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Is Each-way best?

9 Comments

Wanted to touch on the above subject as yesterday irritated me for a number of reasons – firstly I ignored something of a golden rule and backed horses from the system I know hasn’t been profitable “epic fail”. Why did I do this? I think mainly because I wanted to run before I could walk and try and make the money quicker. The testing system bets have been performing badly and yesterday was no exception with all but 2 losing and Native Khan was one of those two but to follow them was financial suicide in a way. Anyhow it’s done and I’ve got “Don’t follow the Blues” stamped to my forehead. If anyone is mad enough to follow the blues my advice is to head onto Betfair and lay them. Needless to say my personal bet was a loser. I will also touch on the Bet Buddy service I’ve been following financially since the end of March tomorrow or over the weekend. I’m really in two minds about following more free blog services because there are so many damn good ones available!

Moving on though the two Combined Optimum selections (Amwell Pinot was a non-runner) finished second in good sized handicaps, kind of grates even more when they were 20/1 and 12/1 respectively. It could so easily have a belting day alas a bit of a mare. The fact they both came second made me think perhaps I should be backing these selections each way, a bit of a kneejerk reaction if you will. Anyways as you can see below from my quick analysis of the 99 Combined Optimum bets it would have been profitable following the bets each way although the ROI does fall down, if anything it does make it easier to stomach if nothing else. If anyone has any opinions on the merits on each way do comment, all comments are good!! I guess instead of going 1pt each way on all of them, you switch the other way and go 2pt win. Which obviously would be more profitable but does mean the losing runs are harder to take. For ease the each way bets below are all priced at 1/5 odds each way.

As you can see quickly it would be profitable to back them each way and remember this is SP and a fifth of the odds so in some cases the each way may have paid a quarter. I feel perhaps it will allow a cushion going forward and although April has been profitable, the longest losing run is starting to make me feel I should be adding a more cautious approach. I’m perhaps over reacting to the old seconditis but of the last 17 selections – 2 have won but a further 8 have been placed. The profit on win only would have been 2.75pts but on the each way part 8.225pts. It’s also worth noting over a period from 24th March to 6th April 23 of 25 selections were placed. Food for thought.

After all of today’s whinging though I did end up of thinking of Martyn and ultimately losing a bit of the bank is nothing to what has happened in the recent days and of course let’s not forget the 96 football fans who lost their lives at Hillsborough 21 years ago. Made me feel incredibly stupid getting worked up about a couple of seconds and a lack of discipline. System bets below … note the 6.55 Five Star Wilshan will fit two systems if Sir Kezbaah is a NR. If Kezbaah runs which is unlikely just the one.

  • COMBINED OPTIMUM
  • 3.35 Wolverhampton – Wish For More – S Moore (TOR14) (5)
  • 4.30 Brighton – Rock With You – P Phelan (TOR14) (5)
  • 5.25 Newbury – Quinsman – S Moore (TOR14) (4)
  • 5.25 Newbury – Epsom Salts – P Phelan (TOR14) (4)

 

  • TESTING
  • 1.35 Newbury – Pitt Rivers – M Channon/S Hitchcott (TJBOTH) (4)
  • 2.20 Ayr – Koalak – K Reveley/J Reveley (TJ7) (3)
  • 4.10 Wolverhampton – Feelin Foxy – J Given (TOR7) (4)
  • 4.55 Newbury – Rain Delayed – M Dods (TOR7) (2)
  • 5.25 Newbury – Monkinzain – M Channon/S Hitchcott (TJBOTH) (4)
  • 5.45 Chepstow – Peplum – G Moore/J Moore (TJ7) (3)
  • 6.55 Chepstow – Five Star WIlshan – J Scott (TOR14) (2) (* only a selection if Sir Kezbaah is NR)
  • 6.55 Chepstow – Five Star WIlshan – J Scott/N Schofield (TJ14) (2)
  • 6.55 Chepstow – Premier Des Marais – G Moore/J Moore (TJ7) (2)
  • 7.55 Chepstow – Yorkshire Knight – P Bowen/T O’Brien (TJBOTH) (5)

 

  • JOCKEY
  • Nothing today, may look at tweaking the selection process on this. 30% win rate seems rather high for jockeys.

Good luck, Lonesome Pundit.

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9 thoughts on “Is Each-way best?

  1. Hmmm interesting – as a natural layer I tend to be a lot more cautious when placing winning bets. I will either back for the win and put a saver lay in for my stake – eg back at 5.2 for £10 and save a lay at 1.8 for £10 – reduces the profit but cures that nearly got it problem.
    I will usually only back for the win at 5.0 on BF or under anything higher and I will back for the place – if the odds are too low for the place I won’t bother.
    I take a more cautious attitude which means I lose out on some of the big wins but have steady profit. But as I say I am at heart a layer not a backer so I don’t really have all that much experience in the backing arena!

  2. In my opinion, in order to maximise your returns from backing (provided you have faith in your selection methods) WIN only betting beats each-way in the long run hands down and by quite some way. It is a pure mindset and psychological thing but the best thing I ever did was to go win only for all my bets whether they be on horses, golf etc – the longer losing spells are acceptable because I know the payoff will be larger when the winners do arrive. If there is one thing I would advise it’s to always go with the method that gives you the higher ROI then it’s just a case of training the mind to shrug off the longer losing spells.

  3. Cheers both for the advice. I think it’s definately a psychological issue and your right Dave got to stick the neck out and go win only. Had a bit of a stinker of a day today and I’m back to the old looking short term – doesn’t help when you back a 6/4 shot to try and win losses and it loses having trading at 1.01. Mistakes a plenty!

    Perhaps time for a break.

  4. I reckon the 3-4 weeks after Aintree are THE trappiest time of the whole year betting-wise. Not only does the flat form take a while to settle down but you don’t know how fit debutantes are, 2yo and 3yo unraced or once-raced runners are tricky to fathom, horses from the all-weather may be fit but not quite as effective on turf while over the jumps you have end-of-season horses running on better ground racing against horses being brought out for a spring campaign. Trainer form takes a while to settle down and it’s just a very dangerous time of the year to bet I think. I keep my powder dry till the Guineas meeting and even then I’m still wary of betting anything that hasn’t at least had a run or two. Why are you backing 6/4 shots anyway 😉

  5. I only backed that one because the day had stressed me out. I knew the result would be inevitable 😦

  6. I agree though with what your saying Dave regards the time of year, very tricky and as such a break is probably the best option, or should I say paper trade as I need to still track things. Also need to get my head somewhat straight 🙂

  7. Hi Rich,
    I went single win bets today on Wishformore (2nd), Feeling Foxy (Unpl), Princess Lexi (Won 9/1), Alfraamsey (Unpl) so money in bank based on trainer form! Shame I’msingingtheblues and Striking Spirit did for me. I’m annoyed as Watch my Back looked one to follow lto.
    Tomorrow looks dodgy as loads of big fields but I think Trainers in form = 40% plus placers, under 10/1, <12 field size, trainer course SR 17% or more is a good starter. I'll try and post my selections tomorrow am. GL!

  8. Have sent you an email Westhill good luck.

  9. By the way Westhill interesting to note, Ian Williams who trained Princess Lexi was in the jumps list but not the flat.

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