Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Grand National 2011

3 Comments

A decent day for the blog picks yesterday as Quito De La Roque managed to hit nearly every fence to battle gamely to win, he looks a novice chaser of some quality if he can sort his jumping out and the imperious Master Minded won for my selections. I also gave you the winner of the Topham in my three selections albeit he wasn’t an actual bet – bit gutted about that as Always Waining was one I’d identified for the National itself so to then not back him for the Topham irritated slightly. Still a good day though and a profit of +9.5pts which made up for Thursday’s losses.

Not going to spend long on today’s post. I’ve touched on the Grand National on and off for the last month or so won’t bore you all with another run through. My ante post selections have been Ballytrim (scratched last week), Always Waining (41st won Topham), Tidal Bay @ 60, Vic Venturi @ 95. The latter is now trading at longer odds and with his course form still looks quite big at 110. He may not win but he’ll be up with the leaders so may allow a trading opportunity. I’m going to add a couple of others to my selections in Ballabriggs @ 18.5 and Oscar Time @ 15.5. I have actually backed Oscar Time at 18 earlier in the week when it looked like Always Waining wouldn’t make the cut. Ballabriggs fits a number of trends and is a horse I really like, jumps well, has a good engine and should stay the trip. It helps that Ian from Wayward Lad blog has also nominated him. Oscar Time is still relatively inexperienced but it’s more a gut opinion on him, I just think he has a great chance. The missus has made her selections also with her lucky pin and favourable colours method – they are Backstage, BecauseIcouldntsee, Dooneys Gate, Golden Kite and Piraya. I think looking at Piraya she couldnt see when picking that one out. It really is a lottery though and as I said on Facebook last night, it doesn’t bother who wins too much, well Tidal Bay would be nice, but hopefully all the horses come back safe and sound.

Of the other races, going to have fly through these.

1.45 The one I initially liked was Recession Proof but he’s now a non runner. The four at the head of the market all had pretty hard races at the festival and three step up in trip. Rock On Ruby’s form looks solid have only narrowly been beaten by First Lieutenant ahead of some well fancied Irish horses. His form behind Bob’s Worth also looks rock solid. Spirit Son and Cue Card are closely matched and the latter has won well at this track and should improve for a longer distance he hasn’t found much in his last two runs though and I’d still be slightly worried about him. Sam Winner ran a strange race in the Triumph but was staying on best and Walsh prefers him to Rock on Ruby. I can’t really pick anything from them. An outsider who I’d give a shout to is Maringo Bay at 33/1. It’s a no bet race though as I’d expect one of the first four in the market to win but have no idea who has come out of the festival best. Cue Card could just be the one I’d prefer.

2.15 Finian’s Rainbow obviously ran a big race at Cheltenham but I’d be wary about taking 8/11 about any horse from the festival. He’ll no doubt bound out in front and could well run this lot ragged on the surface. Ghizao to me needs it softer and he ran poorly at this festival last year. Obviously Finian’s is the best option in here but at the prices I like the 13/2 available from Coral about Starluck. He’s a new recruit to the jumping game but missed Cheltenham which is a positive and although he was easily beaten at Sandown his previous run at Huntingdon wasn’t bad, he’s the best hurdler in here and his record on good ground is better than on good to soft/soft. He rates a small win bet in the hope Finian’s flops.

2.50 Looks another no bet race for me, as you may remember I was sweet on Binocular for the Champion Hurdle and on his day I still think he’s the best 2m hurdler around but this race is over 2m 4f which he hasn’t race over previously, 9/4 doesn’t leave much room for error. Peddlers Cross is shorter but this looks a tough assignment and again he had a tough race 3 weeks back so 6/4 doesn’t tempt me for a bet. Of the remainder I think if the first two turn up there playing for one place and that doesn’t tempt me for an each way bet. The step up in trip should play to Oscar Whisky’s strengths and he beat Celestial Halo easily earlier this year, while the latter’s last two runs albeit better haven’t been franked by the horses in behind. Salden Licht is a horse I really like and although he has a bit too find, he’s another who could go well and should appreciate the increase in distance. Peddlers is the solid option but Binocular could as the fresh horse take this in some style.

3.25 Tricky handicap chase, with a number of decent improving types involved. Bensalem’s gone up 9lb for his win at Cheltenham and that form is solid following Carole’s Legacy’s decent run on Thursday. Great Endeavour was running a good race that day and fell hence he now meets Bensalem on better terms. One I do like though at a longer price is Prince De Beauchene, he could just be a spring horse as his only run outside of the winter months November – March resulted in a win at Haydock. Much like Quito De La Roque he gets the press he needs it heavy but he’s yet to race on ground with just “good” in the description. The excellent young claimer Paul Gallagher takes off 5lb and the Gallagher/Johnson partnership had a winner on Thursday at this meet. He’s worth a little each way nibble at 12/1.

5.00 This is another bookies benefit race and I’ve not looked at anything in any detail. The top weight Nearby ran a cracking race at Cheltenham, Via Galilei is another in cracking form but he’s gone up 7lb for his second in the Imperial Cup. The winner of that race Alarazi has subsequently been beaten easily twice. Via Galilei may just be too high in the weights now. One who caught my attention was Far Away So Close who in my review of the Supreme Novices I noted “one that took my eye for a long way was Far Away So Close who was held up and travelling well before he made a mistake 3 out and then managed to get himself behind a few horses trying to make a move, he wasn’t asked for an effort following that, so is potentially better than he showed in the final standings”. He races in here off a mark of 130 with the claimer taking off a further 7lb. It’s quite speculative but I think he has a little bit more ability than he’s been showing. Another who looks quite well treated is Orzare who beat the 139 rated Hunterview off levels 3 races back and won twice more since. The concern with Orzare is that he’s been off the track for 418 days, but with the claimers allowance he effectively races off 120 here. He’s by no means a confident pick but I fancy if he’s fit he could outrun his current price.

No betting interest in the bumper, Montbazon looks pretty short considering there a lot of unknowns in this field. Not a race I want to attempt to solve.

Bets

  • 2.15 1pt win Starluck @ 13/2
  • 3.25 0.5pt e/w Prince De Beauchene @ 12/1
  • 5.00 0.5pt e/w Far Away So Close @ 20/1
  • 5.00 0.5pt e/w Orzare @ 25/1

Bodugi have a £300 giveaway competition today at Aintree. Give it a go.

System bets – bit of a blow out yesterday on the optimum, typically!

  • OPTIMUM
  • 2.10 Thirsk – Bowmaker – M Johnston/G Fairley (TOR14) (3)
  • A
  • 2.25 Bangor On Dee – Calusa Shadow – P Hobbs/T O’Brien (TJBOTH) (3)
  • 4.50 Chepstow – Wake Board – R Newland (TOR14) (4)
  • B
  • 3.05 Bangor On Dee – Tamadot – P Hobbs/T O’Brien (TJBOTH) (3)
  • 3.45 Chepstow – Mister Watzisname – C Longsdon (TOR7) (4)
  • 4.00 Lingfield – Munaaseb – E Dunlop (TOR14) (5)
  • 5.20 Chepstow – Marias Rock – J Scott (TOR14) (5)
  • 8.20 Wolverhampton – Dazzling Valentine – A Bailey (TORBOTH) (5)
  • C
  • 1.45 Aintree – Bold Sir Brian – L Russell/P Buchanan (TOR14) (1)
  • 1.45 Aintree – Sam Winner – P Nicholls/R Walsh (TOR14) (1)
  • 2.15 Aintree – Ghizao –  P Nicholls/R Walsh (TOR14) (1)
  • 2.50 Aintree – Celestial Halo – P Nicholls/R Walsh (TOR14) (1)
  • 3.00 Lingfield – Tinkertown – P Cole (TOR14) (1)
  • 3.00 Lingfield – Sonoran Sands – S Moore (TOR7) (1)
  • 3.25 Aintree – Carrickmines – R Newland (TOR14) (1)
  • 3.25 Aintree – Take The Breeze – P Nicholls/R Walsh (TOR14) (1)
  • 3.25 Aintree – Prince De Beauchene – J Howard Johnson/P Gallagher (TJBOTH) (1)
  • 4.15 Aintree – Royal Rosa –  J Howard Johnson/P Gallagher (TJBOTH) (1)
  • 4.15 Aintree – Silver By Nature – L Russell/P Buchanan (TOR14) (1)
  • 5.00 Aintree – Caravel  – J Howard Johnson/P Gallagher (TJBOTH) (2)
  • 5.35 Aintree – Grandioso  – J Howard Johnson/P Gallagher (TJBOTH) (1)
  • 5.35 Aintree – Laverogue – C Longsdon (TOR7) (1)
  • 5.45 Bangor On Dee – Hazy Tom – C Longsdon/K Woods (TJ7) (5)
  • D
  • 2.10 Thirsk – Bowmaker – G Fairley (JOR14) (3)
  • 2.45 Thirsk – Ballista – R Kingscote (JOR7) (3)
  • 5.05 Lingfield – Advertisment – R Moore (JOR14) (3)
  • 5.45 Bangor On Dee – Hazy Tom – K Woods (JOR7) (5)
  • 8.20 Wolverhampton – Fairlie Dinkum – G Fairley (JOR14) (5)
  • 8.50 Wolverhampton – Monster Munchie – H Bentley (JOR7) (5)
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3 thoughts on “Grand National 2011

  1. I reckon PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE is a dark-horse at 3-mile-plus; he could be a real blot on the handicap as his brother Miko De Beauchene was rated OR152 (PDB is OR138). MDB never won on “good” going tho’ from 4 tries – always best with some juice in the going!

  2. Doesn’t look like he’s going to get any juice today! Still I agree he could be really well handicapped and the jockey/trainer are in decent form. 14/1 now so seems to be on the drift.

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