90.4% ROI. 30% Strike Rate. 79 Bets mulling it over ..

April 4, 2011 by Administrator 5 Comments

So near but so far for the Lonesome punt yesterday, Moyenne Corniche was available at 12/1 early doors and although there was a rule 4, it would have made a nice change if he’d managed to win. Somewhat annoying that the outsider of the field Cracking Lass came from the rear to win, looking back Cracking Lass had bits of decent form including a 4 length defeat of levels to Aviate (107) but still I couldn’t have picked her on her runs at the back end of last year. The only salvation was that I swerved Times Up based on his record in small numbered races, in olden days I’d have ignored that fact and backed him at a short price. Elsewhere the system bets had another disappointing day, albeit the “A” bets were only down -0.37pts so not a disaster from a financial point of view. I’ll get onto shortly a few other things I’ve been looking at regards the systems shortly. In Ireland St Nicholas Abbey was sent of a prohibitive 4/11 on his return and although he was well beaten I wouldn’t give up on him just yet, he’s likely to have needed the run and Unaccompanied for one is fit and ran well at Cheltenham a few weeks back, her price of 4/1 really was a bit of an each way gift. Glor Na Mara was even more disappointing and I’d not be sure what Jim Bolger plans for that colt now – fact remains though that he has run some decent races so may well do so again at a very big price, time will tell. Regal Parade’s few runs back from a winter break have previously been average so not much surprise he was beaten and again I’d ignore his performance somewhat.

Moving back to the systems, I decided to have a further play around with the filters. Now as previous the main problem with all this is lack of data, ideally I should continue in testing mode – but these stats make worthwhile reading.

A quick run-down on what each system relates to .. just in case you’ve forgotten or are still reading.

• A – All Class 3 and 4 Handicap races from Flat, All Weather and Hurdles
• B – All Class 3 and 4 Maiden and Stakes races from Flat, All Weather and Hurdles. All Class 3 and 4 Handicap Chases. All Class 5 contests from Handicap, Maiden and Stakes.
• C – All Class 1, 2 and 6 Races. All Class 3, 4 and 5 Claimers, Sellers, Novice Hurdles/Chases, NH Flat Races (Bumpers) and Hunters Chases.

 

• TJ14 – System selected from trainer/jockeys 14 days
• TJ7 – System selected from trainer/jockey 7 days
• TJBOTH – System selected from trainer/jockey which appear in both 7 and 14 days.
• TOR14 – System selected by using trainer stats. Trainer must only have one runner at track. System uses 14 days.
• TOR7  – System selected by using trainer stats. Trainer must only have one runner at track. System uses 7 days.
• TORBOTH – System selected from trainer stats which appear in both 7 and 14 days.
• TJTORBOTH – Fits everything!

I appreciate most of you are probably asleep now. Anyways from the latest stats analysis it seems looking at System A & B and using TJ14 & TOR14 is proving useful over the small data size. Worth noting that of the 79 selections that fit this system 41 have been either 1^st or 2^nd. The average SP of those 79 selections has been 7/1, although this is distorted by the odd big price one, the horses finishing 1^st or 2^nd went off at an average of 4/1. Possibly worth looking at using them in an each way form.

No personal bets today. System bets below will put a star next to the AB TJ14/TOR14 (AB OPTIMUM) going forward. You’ll also notice I’ve added Jockeys In Form (all these will be listed system D in the meantime) –I’m going to begin testing just to keep me more insane! Process is exactly the same as Trainers One Runner but using Jockeys.

Very quiet day today and nothing which fits system A.

• B
• 2.40 Windsor – Lord Of the Shadows – R Hannon/R Moore (TJBOTH) (5)
• 4.10 Windsor – Silverware – R Hannon/R Moore (TJBOTH) (5)

 

• D
• 5.10 Windsor – Oneladyowner – P Makin (JOR14) (5)

 

Good luck, Lonesome.