Have delved a little deeper into March’s stats.
There’s been 201 selections with 36 winners for a strike rate of 17.9% for an overall loss of -13.92 to £1 stakes with a ROI of -6.92% not altogether great I’m sure you’ll agree. However do please read on …
The first chart below simply highlights all the different type of races I’ve tracked from the all weather, chases, hurdles and flat. From there I’ve split them up into bands of races sellers, claimers, handicaps, stakes, maidens, novices etc. As you can see there is a substantial difference in some of the various races. Obviously the flat figure is somewhat irrelevant as the statistics are so small, they all are but the flat will obviously take a while to see patterns emerging. Noticeable though how poorly the Chase and Hurdle stats are.
This one simply charts the selections split up into handicaps, maidens, sellers etc.
This next chart shows the 201 selections split up by Class of Race – again a pretty distinctive difference, it may be in time Class 1 will pick up and likewise Class 6. However I get the feeling they may not. Class 1 is obviously far more competitive and the big trainers are all fighting for the bigger prizes. The system is based on trainers in form and trainers/jockeys in form so these big meetings will see much more competitive racing. Likewise the Class 6 contests are usually contested by poor horses and somewhat trainers who don’t win all that often. The bare stats alone point to Class 6 races at Wolverhampton being dire.
Anyways with that information processed I took a look at the stats for Class 3 and 4 races, the next chart highlights that, a much more impressive strike rate of 27% and ROI of 41%. This is from all Class 3 and 4 races. Now as you can see below that figure is markedly improved if we amend the filters to Handicaps and exclude Chase races. It’s obviously a small sample but a strike rate of 29.4% and a ROI of 135% although quite unsustainable is far healthier than the overall total loss of -13.92. Also remember this is at Industry SP. Much better prices available early doors and on the exchanges.
I’ve not used the Class 5 into that last table but it’s probably worth going with Class 3-5 and Handicaps but not Chases. Class 5 is currently running at +3.38 from 21 selections. I will look at that over the weekend.
Any questions please ask either here or email.
Cheers, Lonesome Pundit.