A pleasing start to the flat season for the systems yesterday, with 3 winners from the 9 selections. The highlight being Masked Dance at a very nice 12/1 price, the total profit yesterday was +11.5pts. Today’s system bets are below .. The bet on Eijaaz was a loser as he finished a never nearer fourth but he was nicely backed from 11s into an SP of 6/1 so some consolation – not much admittedly. I will elaborate later today how I will record my own bets – I’ll track everything from 30th March till the end of the flat season as it may be that I’ll put up a fair number of bets, I’ll also run this from a 100pt Bank. I don’t expect it to be anywhere near as successful as Cheltenham 2011 but some profit would be nice. Albeit it’s now at 99pts. I will also be following a couple of other blogs in the coming months, have followed them on and off for a while but will endeavour to follow them religiously with a set bank. I’ll probably be looking at just following two and have pretty much decided which two as things stand, again more on this in time. There are plenty of excellent blogs out there with free advice but it’s not really possible to follow every selection someone puts up – or it’s not possible with a relatively small starting bank. I will also be following the system bets (am doing currently during Midweek and Sunday’s but will likely tweak this further.)
Going back to yesterday, I did also notice that A P McCoy was on board three jollies who all lost yesterday, not following the Lay AP system anymore but it may be worthwhile revisiting back in the Autumn, not much point now. Regards the Lincoln at the weekend Taqleed is now into 4/1 in most places so the 5/1 looks slightly better, not sure I’d want much less than 4/1 without knowing the draw, but if he’s drawn low then it’s every chance he’ll be sent off less than 3/1. No movement from Kiwi Bay yet, may well have another look at the race following latest declarations more likely though I’ll take a look at the rest of the card.
In addition to the system bets I decided to have a final look at the Grand National, I doubt I’ll have anything else to add on this in the lead up to the race. With the bookies likely to shorten everything up on the day it’s worth having another look before they actually start doing so, the ground is obviously going to be an issue but with some luck it will be good to soft and most should appreciate that. The two I’ve decided to add to my previous bets (Ballytrim @ 75 and Tidal Bay @ 60) are Vic Venturi available @ 95 on Betfair and Always Waining @ 130 on the exchange. Now these may look pretty mad bets and you’d probably be right but for the life of me I can’t back anything much at the head of the market with any conviction on trends at least. The Midnight Club is now into 8/1 in some places which in my own opinion is a ridiculous price – he only narrowly beat Arbor Supreme last time out and you can back that one at 4 times the price on Betfair. The Midnight Club obviously has a good chance but personally I wouldn’t touch him at around 16/1 so won’t be touching him at 8/1. Of the rest at the top market many have been there for a while and although they all have a chance in my opinion they don’t offer much value if any.
The two I’m adding to the bets then. The key thing with both of these is one they are still a big price and two they fit a lot of key trends – I know I probably harp on about these too much –
Trends the pair fit –
- 8/10 Finished in the last 5 on their last start
- 7/10 Had not won that season
- 9/10 Had won a listed/graded chase – Always Waining has won the Topham and a listed race at Market Rasen. Whilst Vic Venturi has in his time won the Becher Chase and the Bobbyjo.
- 10/10 Had run between 4 and 6 times since September – AW (6 Runs) VV (4 Runs)
- 9/10 Had won a chase over 3m
- 10/10 Had run in at least 10 Chases – experience counts – AW (31 Chase Runs) VV (23 Chase Runs)
- 9/10 Had won 3 to 5 Chases – AW (5 Chase Wins) VV (4 Chase Wins)
- 10/10 Had last run since weights were announced
- 7/10 Had a run over hurdles in the same year
- 7/10 Had previously run over National Fences
- 8/10 Ran at Previous Year’s National meeting
I guarantee you will do well to find two other horses who fit this profile as well, mind if you find one do let me know, on the sly of course and obviously at a price. 🙂
Anyways the trends like them. But do they actually have a chance??
Vic Venturi last year was running a belter prior to unseating at the 20th fence, he then ran off 154, this year up to 156 despite actually running pretty averagely all season. His best run was in the Bobbyjo when he was beaten 12 lengths by The Midnight Club – he carried 5lb more than that horse – but worth noting most who finished in front of him were rated 10+ lower, conceivably he has little chance of turning the tables with TMC, Oscar Time and Arbor Supreme (The National is a strange beast though). He won the Bobbyjo the previous year of 154 so I don’t think he’s overly badly rated. Do I think he’s worth chancing at 95s when The Midnight Club is 8/1? Obviously. He’s got winning form over the National fences and considering some of his old form the current price is a bit of an insult especially as he does fit so many trends. Andrew Lynch may ride him if Notre Pere doesn’t run and that would be a bonus. Dessie Hughes the trainer has said Notre Pere will run only if the ground is on the softer side.
Always Waining can be backed at 130 on Betfair, but there is still a chance he won’t actually get in – needs 10 to come out, likely 9 as Midnight Chase is unlikely to run – it therefore may pay to take the 66/1 NRNB however I’m not splashing a lot so will take the chance on the 130s. This horse has done very little in the current season having been beaten a total of 239 lengths in 6 races. His best effort however did come at the track in October when carrying top weight in the Sefton, he was beaten 10 lenghts by Frankie Figg that day. He does save his best efforts for Aintree having raced round here 5 times, winning twice and finishing 4th of 29 in the 2009 Topham. It’s a bit of a stab really and I don’t really think he’ll win but again he fits a lot of trends, he’s run well at the course and over the fences so 130 on the exchange I believe is a big price. I’d not be overly sure he’ll get the trip neither but I guess we’ll find out.
To summarise my bets for the Grand National are as follows.
1pt win Tidal Bay @ 60
1pt win Vic Venturi @ 95
1pt win Always Waining @ 130
0.5pt win Ballytrim @ 75
I don’t intend to worry about the each way side of things, it’s do or die. No doubt the missus will pick a few more fancied runners so we’ll have a good selection running for us and no doubt falling or being pulled up before the Chair.
- 4.20 Retainer – R Hannon (14 Days) (3)
- 5.20 Space Station – S Dow/N Callan (7 Days) (4)
- 3.05 Courella – E Williams/A Conlon (7 Days) (4)
- 4.05 Akarshan – E Williams/A Conlon (7 Days) (3)
- 8.15 Icelandic – F Sheridan/J Doyle (7/14 Days) (5)
Not had a chance to look at anything else today, so there are no personal bets.
Good luck, Lonesome Pundit.