Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Results update

5 Comments

Have updated the results of the systems from March 20th to March 28th. Overall a shade disappointing and it’s clear to see this is going to need further tweaking to be successful, the table below shows the data for the past week.

All system results 20th March - 28th March

The second table highlights the overall data since I started following both systems. Not a complete success, I’m sure you’ll agree. 

All System results

 

Having done some additional filtering, I’ve found a few areas which do improve the figures substantially. Notably excluding the Cheltenham results which were very disappointing with 28 selections and 0 winners. Tough racing is not ideal it seems. obviously makes sense as the competitive nature means it’s an awful lot harder to win and place horses, likewise I went back to find if Saturday’s racing which is more competitive made a difference and as you can see that again was disappointing with only 4 winners from 43 selections. Removing both filters leaves a much better 30.54pt success rate (remember this is from Industry SP so can be improved upon with early prices). The strike rate here is also quite healthy operating at around 25% which when the average SP is nearly 9/1 it’s pretty handy. The main thing to remember here though is the sample size is still very small, as such April will need to be a monitoring month again, it does point to a watching brief over Aintree.

Saturday, Festival findings

 

Last thing I wanted to touch on just now was performance by track. Haven’t yet analysed all the jump tracks and additionally need to go back and add in filters for Chase, Hurdle, Bumper but the below highlights the four all weather tracks and these don’t yet suffer the Saturday syndrome. Kempton has performed well so far, definately worth noting a trainer sending one runner to the track, so far from 6 selections, 4 have won and the other two were second. Small sample size again but a nice positive statistic. It’s also pleasing that the flat bar Wolverhampton seems to be slightly better all good come the start of the flat season.

All Weather system stats

 

So in a nutshell from the first 25 odd days. Avoid Saturdays, Avoid Festivals, Avoid Wolves.

Tomorrow’s up later and perhaps a look ahead at the Lincoln.

Lonesome Pundit.

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5 thoughts on “Results update

  1. I should add, if anyone wants a copy of the complete database drop me a line and I’ll email it over, sometimes four eyes are better than two.

    • Hey mate, hope all is well. In regards to your system, I’m not sure how it works as I haven’t had a proper look yet, hopefully you can explain it to me? I’d greatly appreciate that.

      The one thing I would add, you said you’ll add filters for hurdles, chases and bumpers.. could you go further and add in types of races i.e. sellers, claimers, novice, handicap, listed, graded? I know that would take some work but I think it could pay in the long run, but then again I’m not sure how it works so I could be completely wrong.

      Martyn.

  2. Hi mate, yeah sure it’s probably easier to email over the process as although the systems page roughly explains it doesn’t in anyway enough detail, your absolutely right about the types of races, even if it’s just class of race which gets added. It’s going to be a bit of a painstaking task to go back and update them but would make sense to do so and going forward I will add all that data, leave your email and I’ll be in touch.

    On a seperate note bad luck today, I cursed them as I followed you on both!

  3. Here’s my e-mail; c.a.r.l.i.s.l.e-23@hotmail.com

    Ah thanks mate, hope you didn’t go in heavy! Quinsman could be one for next time, the saddle slipped and we got no run for our money. Was well backed from 11/2 into 7/2 so plenty was expected.

  4. Will email you mate, yeah wasn’t too heavy nothing to worry about at any rate.

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