Quick catch up on the system selections.
It’s been a brutal spell for them to be honest, the trainer jockey system has taken an absolute battering, thank heavens for paper monitoring to see if it would work, indications appear to read it doesn’t. Since last update on the 14th – 30 runners have fit into the selection process of that 30, all but one were beaten and the only winner was a 5/2 shot at Hexham, the competitive nature of racing at Cheltenham is obviously not a good thing for this system, plus I wasn’t monitoring Irish runners and a load of them came over and took most of the prizes. It’s still worth tracking until the end of March but I’ll be honest I’m not convinced it’s a goer unless at really poor midweek/Sunday meetings. Saturdays and festivals just look far too competitive. Additionally the selection process seems to be allowing too many trainer/jockeys who only have 1 or 2 runners over a fortnight enter calculations. It needs work simply or it needs knocking on the head.
The trainer one runner system has performed much better. It’s only shown a 1pt profit since Monday and that was only due to Fanditha today but the horses have been running well and is still well in profit to SP remember it would be better with an early price at a B.O.G bookmaker, recent near misses include Bothy at 12/1 and Aimigayle at 25/1. Exmoor Ranger also could have run a lot better if allowed to start with the others, also at 25/1. It’s showing far more promise and although there were no winners from 6 selections at the festival I’m quite happy with how it performed. Again going to monitor until the end of March – the problem with the current time of year is no doubt going to be End of jumps/Start of Flat syndrome so any system may struggle. I’d advise a watching brief. The strike rate of 14% is a little bit lower than I’d have liked but a lot of the runners have been double figure prices.
Going to make a few changes to both systems – Going to also track the record in the past 7 days in addition to the past 14 days. I’m worried that perhaps 14 days is too big a timeframe for trainer form.
I have also been tracking the smaller trainers with limited runners per week and following these is looking unprofitable, they win one at a big price and that’s it, you’ve missed it as it wasn’t part of the system but chances are they don’t win again when included. So the trainer must have sent out 5 runners in the 14 days – or 3 runners in the 7 days – therefore to qualify 1 must have won and 2 placed. Same formula for the Trainer/Jockey system. Chances are I’ll miss a few here but well it needs tweaking – quite happy that today it’s only pulled back one selection.
- Newton Abbot
- 3.45 Aldertune – P Nicholls/N Schofield – (14 Days TJ)