Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Cheltenham Day 2 – No Favourites here!

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Well yesterday was definitely nearly an awesome day, most of my ante posts ran yesterday and it will probably be the day this week where I’ll wager most, instead it was still profitable thanks to Captain Chris who proved as I stated yesterday that he’s the best horse in the race.

Spirit Son was a very good second and I was right to take on Cue Card who found very little when asked, not sure what price he would have been to have not been in the top three but it certainly left a few punters satchels lighter. The stats were against Cue Card so pleasing to have got him beat, not so pleasing obviously that Al Ferof came through and nabbed Spirit Son but such is life. Magen’s Star was backed into 14/1 from the 50s I got a fortnight ago, she led for a fair way but it’s possible the ground was too quick or she was just outclassed I’d side with the latter to be honest. Next up my only winner of the day in Captain Chris as I said in yesterday’s preview this horse had the potential to be the best in the line up and boy did he show it, Medermit ran no sort of race and looks to far prefer life away from Cheltenham, whilst Ghizao looks to prefer much softer ground though I wouldn’t entirely give up on him. Captain Chris still jumped slightly right but he’s got an engine to burn and better judges than me think he’ll be a great shout at next year’s King George. He looks a potential Gold Cup horse in my eyes. Finian’s Rainbow also ran well and he will win some big races over the jumps. Wolf Moon ran no sort of race although again was heavily backed. The Champion Hurdle threw up a cracking duel and the front two are in my eyes both winners, Hurricane Fly has proved he can do it at Cheltenham and to win 8 Grade 1s is exceptional, a wonderful horse, made me laugh 10 minutes before the race Clare Balding tweeted that he looked “awful” I wonder how many people read that and laid him off or didn’t back him. I’ll be honest I had a bit on Peddlers Cross who finished a terrific second, Peddlers lost nothing in defeat and will hopefully go over fences now and he looks sure to keep improving. Thousand Stars was 4th and thus only just missed out on the 50/1 each way cash. Second again in the Cross Country race with Garde Champetre, bit gutted about that as Nina Carberry in my eyes left the horse with too much to do at the end still another good performance from the horse. Banjaxed Girl was disappointing but no real surprise Quevega bolted up, I wonder if she’ll head to Aintree next whilst Definity somewhat summed up my day having been backed into 3/1 from the 7s obtained, a game 5th the best he could manage. Ruby Walsh the hero of the day and Captain Chris on a personal note the hero of the day. Total profit/loss from Tuesday  +9.5pts 

Onto Wednesday and what looks a tricky old set of cards.

4m Chase – My head says to ignore this race, amateur riders, 4 miles and all that. I’ve not looked at it any detail whatsoever but the horse I want to be with is Beshabar. Just looking back over his form and in particular the way he kept going last time out at Wetherby he may be suited to the extra distance, the jockey on board Tom David is attached to the yard so more of a guess than anything he’ll know the horse quite well and at 15/2 he’s worth a small win wager. Of the rest Chicago Grey is the top rated and probably on the run at Cheltenham in November would have beaten Beshabar, he’s also been only beaten 8l by Time For Rupert so has claims here, Alfa Beat is on a six timer so also has to be respected, whilst I wouldn’t completely give up on Be There In Five from the Henderson stable. Tell you the truth I really don’t know and shouldn’t even have a bet. 

Neptune – Looks a good renewal and for that matter looks a top heavy Irish renewal. However I’m going to ignore both the Irish market leaders So Young has a lot of positive vibes but his first race looked poor quality and although he won well it was on soft ground, next up he was 1/6 on to win and won as he should do, the other Irish principle Oscars Wells has better form in the book but Zaidpour and Hidden Universe hardly pulled up any trees yesterday in the Supreme Novices and again he’s only raced on the soft/heavy ground. First Lieutenant I’m also swerving for similar reasons, albeit he looks a useful animal but only just beat Zaidpour. The two I like though and I’m going to back both are Rock On Ruby who has course form having won a bumper in November and then only narrowly losing to Bob’s Worth in a Grade One last time out, worth noting the jockey dropped his whip that day also. 10 lengths behind was the ill fated Backspin a horse who had previously beaten Al Ferof by 9 lengths of levels and I may add For Non Stop see Coral Cup later, if you’re taking the Al Ferof/Zaidpour form lines then 4/1 about Oscars Wells or 15/2 about Rock On Ruby with course form I know which I’d prefer. Rock On Ruby’s win at Newbury also stands up pretty well as he beat Kid Cassidy by 12 lengths that day and he Kid Cassidy had previously smashed Tornado Bob who runs here and is a similar price to Rock On Ruby. I’d also give a shout to Habbie Simpson who ran in that race and is 28/1 here and worth a small interest as he could well run well and nick a place. I do though think Rock On Ruby is an each way bet to nothing as I can’t see him out of the top three minimum.

RSA Chase – Posted thoughts on this previously https://lonesomepundit.wordpress.com/2011/03/05/quito-to-conquer/ Now the main problem with this is my main fancy Quito De La Roque doesn’t run, no disaster as it was NRNB but it leaves me looking elsewhere. I still don’t think Time For Rupert is the horse to be with on trends but he’s done nothing wrong. I don’t fancy Wymott or Wayward Prince enough to think they’ll beat TFR whilst of the others the Irish again don’t convince me Mikael D’Haguenet could be the one but you’ve got to take him on trust, albeit he has won round here before, 8/1 looks shorter enough though. The Giant Bolster was running a cracking race when he fell behind TFR in November not saying he’d have won but all the same he may have come 2nd. Next time out he beat Vino Griego giving that one 10lb, Vino ran well yesterday off a mark of 133 so The Bolster’s rating is potentially better than his 146.  Master Of The Hall was well behind Hells Bay in his only spin round Cheltenham so he’s ignored, whilst 1833 needs to bust a few trends. At a price I’ll have a nibble on the The Giant Bolster at 16/1. 

QMCC – Happy with my ante post selection here in Sizing Europe, see no real need to have anything extra or back anything else. He has a good chance of making the places and although Big Zeb and Master Minded are obviously the class acts, Sizing could have them at it if he gets out and runs as he did in the Arkle last year. Master Minded could make everyone look very silly at a price of 7/2 and he’ll probably be my Nap for a number of competitions in which I’m doing ok in. 

Coral Cup – Heck this is tricky. I’ll be honest it has me stumped. I’ve had words for a few one being Tiger O’Toole who ran really well to win a competitive handicap at Ascot last month, whilst the front three could all improve further and bolt up – I’d expect Aegean Dawn, For Non Stop or Call The Police any one of them to be capable of throwing in a class performance. However there is one I quite like at a speculative price. That horse is Lightning Strike from Venetia Williams and Aidan Coleman, having won a couple of Grade 1s back in 2008 the horse has ability he won those off a mark of 135 and 138, in here today off 129 he could well be treated well if back to his best. His comeback run at Haydock on really heavy ground was pretty decent as it was over 3m and he was up with the principles for most of the way before fading, his record at Cheltenham is nothing to shout about but it is worth noting he was good enough to run in the RSA in 2009 and was only beaten 8 lengths by Fiveforthree in the 2008 Ballymore. 33/1 is worthy of a nibble, though I’d expect it to be an optimistic nibble.

Fred Winter – Again looks impossible. Rock Of Deauville at 40/1 bugs me as I think with connections they think he should be better than rated 112. It’s quite possible he’s got absolutely no ability but he did beat Qalinas off levels by 13 lengths and that one is now rated 117, RoD has been sent off favourite a couple of times so there must be something behind him, 40/1 does look a bit big and he has no weight neither. He has also beaten Super Kenny, who gave weight and only lost by 2l to Via Gallilei who is now rated 129. Rock Of Deauville’s form is hard to grasp but there is something there, bugging me as I say, quite possibly the horse is a dodgepot but a Nicholls handicapper at 40/1? Of the rest I wouldn’t have much idea to tell you the truth any of them could improve immeasurably the Longdson yard is in terrific form so I like Paintball whilst a lot of money has come for Tenor Nivernais in the past week or so. Titan De Sarti has been poor and looks too high in the ratings and I wouldn’t back him at 8/1, whilst the top weight Kumbeshwar could run well. Going to chance RoD though at a massive price. Foolish perhaps .. mind Nicholls won this race last year and this nag is his only runner.

Champion Bumper – Haven’t a clue. Will say Knights Pass but won’t be backing anything.

Bets 

  • 1.30 Beshabar 1pt e/w @ 15/2
  • 2.05 Rock On Ruby 2pt e/w @ 15/2
  • 2.05 Habbie Simpson 0.5pt e/w @ 28/1
  • 2.40 The Giant Bolster 1pt e/w @ 16/1
  • 3.20 Sizing Europe 1pt e/w @ 14/1 ante post
  • 4.00 Lightning Strike 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1
  • 4.40 Rock Of Deauville 0.5pt e/w @ 40/1

Favourites moi? Skint by 5.00? Likely.

No luck for the systems yesterday although a few were placed still it’s paper testing, today’s selection are below.

  • Cheltenham
  • 2.05 Accordintolawrence – C Longsdon/F De Giles
  • 2.05 So Young – W Mullins/R Walsh
  • 2.40 Mikael D’Haguenet – W Mullins/R Walsh
  • 4.00 Call The Police – W Mullins/R Walsh
  • 4.00 Bothy – B Ellison
  • 4.40 Titan De Sarti – N Henderson/A P McCoy
  • 5.15 Tusa Eire – W Mullins/R Walsh
  • Kempton
  • 6.50 Winnipeg – C Cox

Good luck to all.

Lonesome Pundit

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2 thoughts on “Cheltenham Day 2 – No Favourites here!

  1. As you may know I was big on GHIZAO yesterday for the Arkle. My opinion is that he was running as well as any till Murphy asked him for a long-one at the open ditch at the top of the hill. He jumped-off at least a stride to soon and only just reached the fence, with his belly landing on it and hind legs dragging thru’ the top. I reckon he hurt himself then, and tho’ he was able to keep up going down the hill, he did not jump any of the remaining fences well (and jumping is his forte) and emptied-out when asked for an effort after the 2nd-last. In my opinion, not his true running at all and we may see a better horse NTO.

  2. I agree Ian, he’s definately not one to give up on, it’s possible he’s much better on softer ground but you shouldn’t take away the fact he mullered Captain Chris twice early in the season. CC has obviously improved and still will I reckon, jumps right etc but I would definately agree that Ghizao is not one to forgot in the novice jump sphere more so than Medermit. For me the three to take out of the Arkle, were the front two – Finian’s jumped really well and laid a few ghosts and Ghizao.

    Have a great couple of days at the festival btw mate.

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