Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

Some more systems ..

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Not a great day for the Trainer/Jockey in form system with all six runners losing, only two were placed. The one positive is that it’s pulling back some decent prices. Still that’s what testing is all about … two runners tomorrow both. 

  • Huntingdon
  • 3.40 Marc Of Brilliance – G Moore/J Moore
  • 4.40 Lepido – G Moore/J Moore

In addition to the Trainer/Jockey stats I’m going to look at purely going back to monitoring the trainer in form with one runner, rules quite simply as the trainer/jockey combo but only one runner at the track. No runner today but interesting all the same last four days Brian Ellison has sent out one runner per day and each won has won at decent prices also 9/4, 7/1, 8/1, 15/2 

  • Sedgefield
  • 2.20 Malin Bay – N Richards
  • 3.20 Mauricetheathlete – M Keighley

Interesting jockey booking on the Keighley horse as Jason Maguire takes the ride, only the fifth time he has ridden for Keighley in the past 12 months.

The other little system that I’m going to start monitoring is called Lay AP.

Rules for this little system will be to lay all AP McCoy runners which are priced under 3.5 on Betfair at Starting Price or 5/2 in layman terms. I’ve been monitoring these kind of stats for a fair while and as a quick guide over the past 30 days. AP has ridden 29 horses priced at or under 5/2 according to Industry SP haven’t yet gone through the Betfair SP. In that time he has won on nine of them, losing on 20. The average SP of an AP McCoy hotpot was 8/11 albeit that average is lowered by Binocular at 1/10 and Quantitiveasing at 2/11. Roughly though the price should be about evens. I worked out to Industry SP the profit made would be +13.04 pts if you laid each horse to win a set amount i.e. win £2 on Binocular – if it wins lose 20p or win £2 on Nomansland – if it wins lose £2.50. The most you’d lose if setting max liability at 3.5 would be £5. I’m pretty sure there’s a lot better ways to stake this, with a fixed liability for instance, I’ll be honest I need to read up on staking plans a lot especially when it comes to laying horses, my limited knowledge is really poor. Now obviously you can’t lay at the actual SP so I do need to check the Betfair SP as this will give a more accurate price but hopefully it will still see the system in clover despite the 5% surcharge additionally. It’s another thing worth watching anyways … I guess the reason for following this system is that although AP is the best jockey perhaps his horses get over-bet too much and more often than not he’s on Henderson jollies which can be opposed. Any comments welcome .. a quick spreadsheet image is below of the last 30 day qualifiers. 

The likely candidates for this system today are both Henderson favourites. 

  • 2.10 First In The Queue
  • 2.40 Sizing Ireland

Good luck, Lonesome Pundit.

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