As promised a look at the RSA Chase, as posted earlier in the week I wanted to take a look at the trends and runners to see if I can find anything which is worth opposing Time For Rupert with, my main concern with TFR is that of the last 10 winners – all 10 had their last run between 24 and 55 days, worth noting the last 47 winners all ran in the same year – some stat to overcome that. Additionally 19 of the last 20 had run in more than 3 chases, TFR has only run in 2 races. Missing the Argento really does hit him hard on the trends and at current prices I have to oppose him despite his great course form and superior rating. On trends alone or the trends I’ve used the three that come out top of the pack are Wymott, Wayward Prince and Quito De La Roque.
Wayward Prince is the only won to have won round Cheltenham which is a positive but the race he did win in my eyes wasn’t all that great, I think Beshabar for one may have beaten him standing on his feet whilst the second home Chicago Grey has been well put in his place since. Additionally I wasn’t particularly taken by the way Wayward Prince won his prep race at Wetherby. He has though won a Grade 1 over hurdles back in April. Wymott beat Wayward Prince last year in a hurdle race and on RPR ratings is rated 3 points better, to counter that however Wayward Prince is rated 2lb higher. I’ll be honest I can’t choose between the two mind and as such won’t be advising a bet on either.
The other horse top of the trends Quito De La Roque looks slightly more risky having never raced on anything bar heavy, soft to heavy, yielding ground. It’s unlikely to be any of that, though a rain dance wouldn’t go amiss …. however he does have some things in his favour. Gigginstown and jockey Davy Russell won this race last year, he has won over 3m, he fits the majority of trends and all 10/10 trends, he’s 16/1 so 5pts bigger than the two previous mentioned and the Irish have a decent record in the race. Looking back over his form he was beaten in the Fort Leney Novice Chase at Christmas by ¾ length by Boston’s Angel that one has since won again making the form look pretty solid and Boston’s Angel for his part fits 6 of the 7 trends I looked at, the only one he fell down on being unplaced in a chase race this season. Wayward Lad has put up Bostons as a guide you can read that here it’s worth looking at http://waywardlad.blogspot.com/2011/02/super-kenny-to-rescue.html
However getting back to Quito, the third in that race Western Charmer finished another length down and Chicago Grey who was beaten by TFR by 8 lengths in the Winter by a further 2 lengths, remember Chicago Grey may have beaten Wayward Prince if staying on his feet. Next time out Quito faced Western Charmer again this time in a Grade 2 at Navan and this time beat him by 14 lengths, now it’s possible Western Charmer has gone backwards or that Quito has improved further. Western Charmer’s next run was behind Boston’s Angel and that admittedly was even more disappointing. Quito then won the Ten Up Novice Chase at Navan again a Grade 1. For me if the ground has a bit of give in it Quito has a good chance of running into a place or even winning the race so based on that I’m going to put him up. Word of warning mind he’s also entered for the 4m race and more prominent in the betting for that so I’d advise taking a NRNB firm. In a way it’s good to see he’s entered for that 4m race as he’s definitely going to stay the 3m if he turns up.
1pt e/w – RSA Chase – Quito De La Roque @ 16/1
Away from Cheltenham, the new system got off to an average start on paper yesterday. Only one winner from 10 selections – one was a non runner and Carnac I’ve ignored for results purposes as the horses stopped then started again. The one winner though was Blue Nymph at an Industry SP of 8/1 and Betfair SP of 10. So all in all not a disaster, will go over results in more detail at a later stage. The two Swinbank/Keniry horses were both placed so would have at least rewarded and each-way double if I’d done one. Also worth noting Patient Speculation which I mentioned yesterday stuck up one selection yesterday a 10/1 chance which scooted in, great stuff from Mark. Today’s selections are below.
- 1.55 Saint Are – Vaughan/Johnson
- 1.55 Benbane Head – Keighley/Marston
- 3.00 Take The Breeze – Nicholls/Mahon
- 5.20 Ammo Away – Vaughan/Johnson
- 3.15 Character Building – Quinn/Costello
- 4.25 Holme Rose – McCain/Brooke
Happy punting, Lonesome Pundit.