First a warning. This post drags!
Ok have been through approximately the first 76 horses entered and applied my own system to the trends. Therefore it may well not make sense to follow but it is well a personal opinion, so don’t shoot the messenger, it’s just to get the juices watering or my own at any rate. It’s not complete neither yet as there are still 6 weeks or so to go, plenty of time for things to change.
I’ve awarded 1 point for every horse which hits the following trends ..
Aged at least 9; Pre RPR 150+; Top Speed 128+; Won This Season = No; Initial Weight between 9-12 and 10-12; Ante Post Price between 25/1 and 40/1; Between 10 and 15 Chases
I’ve then awarded 2 points for any horse hitting these trends
Between 2 and 5 Outings; Won Over 3 Miles; Won a Class 1 Chase (Have awarded 1pt if the horse has only won a Class 2 Chase); Official Rating is between 136-140 (eight of the last ten between that number); Awarded one point between 140-148.
Now this probably makes no sense to anyone at all, but if anyone tries to go through 75+ horses and add trends to all it’s a rather time consuming exercise. It does though make sense to me and has helped me clear some opinions. Quite likely completely irrelevant come the actual day and the selection will plummet at the first. If anyone does want to have a look at the spreadsheet send me an email, I’ll forward it on when I’ve completed the lot. The spreadsheet is good for nothing else it takes you via hyperlink to the horses Racing Post data which is quite handy. It’s quite likely I’ve boobed somewhere along the line also, hopefully not too badly.
So the findings.
The most Skeen Points a horse can score is 15 points. The top rated are as follows
- Merigo 15
- Bluesea Cracker 14
- Silver By Nature 14
- Calgary Bay 13
- Dream Alliance 13
- Always Waining 13
- Can’t Buy Time 13
- Character Building 13
- West End Rocker 13
- Killyglen 13
- Golden Kite 13
- Ballytrim 12
- Comply or Die 12
- Fair Along 12
- Frankie Figg 12
- Hello Bud 12
- Le Beau Bai 12
- Notre Pere 12
- One Cool Cookie 12
- Roll Along 12
- That’s Rhythm 12
Of the others last year’s winner Don’t Push It scored 11, whilst Taranis advised by Wayward Lad also scored 11. The Midnight Club most interestingly only scored 6. Of course the race is still 7 odd weeks away so I’m going to have update the trends prior to the actual race, hence it’s not a definite list more so a work in progress.
The Midnight Club as a guide has only had one run this season, obviously his score will climb dependent on a run, he’s rated 149 so just above the 148 threshold I’ve used (fully aware the standard of race has improved), he’s been allocated 10-13 just above the 10-12 threshold, he’s still relatively inexperienced with only 7 chase runs, he’s too short for the ante-post price trend and he’s yet to win a Class 1 or 2 chase. His only actual chase win being a Clonmel beginners chase. Now that’s not to say he has no chance of winning but currently he’s well of the radar especially at 16/1.
So looking at the top of the list. Merigo comes out top, won the Scottish National last year, the big problem with him is he’s 75 in the weights. Last year the 76th horse got a run. It’s a big old risk to back him now especially when he’s only 38 on Betfair. He’s going to need 30 to pull out which in my opinion is asking a lot. If he gets in though needless to say I’d be all over him like a rash.
Next two Bluesea Cracker and Silver By Nature have both proven National form. With Bluesea Cracker winning the Irish National last year and Silver By Nature coming 2nd in the Welsh National. He’s also won the Blue Square Gold Cup previously (Grand National trial) which takes place today. My one concern with Silver By Nature is that he may be aimed at the Scottish National. Current price on both are Bluesea Cracker (38); Silver By Nature (48). Not worth taking yet in my opinion taking a price. Kind of would like SBN to run an average race today and his price drift somewhat it was 55 earlier in the week.
The next eight in the list are all interesting for various reasons, won’t go into depth with them. I guess you could make a case for 60 horses mind. Price wise they are currently Character Building (70); West End Rocker (25); Killyglen (65); Always Waining (230); Can’t Buy Time (75); Calgary Bay (36); Dream Alliance (120); Golden Kite (350). Of those I’m surprised at Always Waining’s price but he’s 68th in the list so may be the issue of getting in. I think if he gets in though he’ll be more like 50/1. Can’t Buy Time also really interests me. He’s pretty certain to run at 55 in the list. He’s been running in decent races this year however I guess he’s run the actual race twice and fallen twice. I’ve put a little bet in to see if anyone will take a bet of 100 current lay price so we’ll see. I’ll also ask for a big price on Always Waining. The other big question mark over Can’t Buy Time would be the McCoy factor. I’d expect him to stay with Don’t Push It but he’s obviously not tied down to it yet. The horse went off at 33s last two years and with a lower weight and experience may just come in from the current 75s so a good trading opportunity if nothing else, of course if anything happened to Don’t Push It or McCoy chose it then 100s or even 75s is massive.
Ballytrim I backed at 75 the other day. He’s now trading at 75, not overly disappointed with him only scoring 12 but I won’t be topping up the cash on that one, I actually laid a bit back earlier in the week as he was trading at 65 to have a few quid on Taranis on the recommendation of Wayward Lad at 200.
Before I depart today there’s an interesting Grand National trial race today. In a nutshell if one of the five who actually runs in the race wins it then I’d expect his price to shorten significantly it’s a bit of a risk not backing Silver By Nature or Le Beau Bai for instance who’s available at 210 and scored 12 Skeen points, being 74th in the list doesn’t help him though. Mobaasher and King Fontaine I won’t be backing even if they win today though both are decent prices for the GN at the moment and if they win will surely come in slightly. Nicto De Beauchene is worth keeping an eye on. I ain’t half babbling now!!! I will though update all on any bets and what not currently I’m sitting on.
- 0.5pt Ballytrim @ 75
- 0.25pt Taranis @ 200
Some random Channel 4 race selections and then I’m gone! Best of luck to all today. 🙂
- 1.50 Master Of The Hall – win
- 2.10 Rose Of The Moon – e/w (Court In Motion should really dot up)
- 2.25 Ogee – e/w (really like this horse)
- 2.45 Any Given Day – win (sooner Bensalem goes back over fences the better)
- 3.00 Tartak – win (Not convinced with the market principals)
- 3.20 West End Rocker; Major Malarkey – e/w (Definitely a watching race)
- 3.35 Karasenir; Drill Seargeant – e/w
- 3.45 Silvianico Conti – win (giving 4lb to Menorah last time wasn’t a bad effort, earlier form stands up). 4/1 is a big price imo.
Elsewhere I’d give a shout to I’m A Legend in the 4.15. Oh and finally before I finally disappear anyone notice Mister Green won his last two races, I point you in the direction of the post https://lonesomepundit.wordpress.com/2011/02/04/no-bleating/ following my selection the previous day. A small psychological win!!!!