Lonesome Pundit

Bettting, DFS, Football, NFL – bit of randomness

A National Certainty?

6 Comments

Apologies for the lack of any posting. As I spoke about last time I don’t intend to continue betting on a daily basis or not at any rate until the flat starts off again. I’m really looking forward to Cheltenham but that aside I’ve knocked the whole horse racing game on the head. It doesn’t admittedly make it easier to enjoy the sport after the scenes at the weekend, I shan’t dwell on it though as plenty has been written. Cheltenham wise I have spent a fair amount of time looking at potential races and horses, not necessarily using any specific trends just my idea of the winner. However I’ll come to that in the coming weeks, today I thought as it’s topical I’d visit the Grand National and see if there’s anything poking it’s head out there that may be of interest.

The trends below are pulled from the Racing Post this morning.

  • Won over at least three miles, Won a class 1 or 2 chase, 10/10 (seven at Class 1 level)
  • Two to five outings since start of August to publication of weights, 10/10
  • Officially rated 136 to 148, 9/10 (eight between 136 and 140)
  • Initially allotted a weight between 9st 12lb and 10st 12lb, 9/10 (the biggest weight rise from publication of weights to race was 9lb in 2001)
  • Aged at least nine, 9/10 (only one second-season chaser has won)
  • Pre-race RPR of at least 144, 9/10 (seven 150-plus)
  • Recorded a Topspeed figure of at least 128, 9/10
  • Quoted between 25-1 and 40-1 in the ante-post market, 9/10
  • Yet to win that season prior to publication of weights, 8/10 (none won more than once)
  • Won a handicap chase off a mark between 129 and 143, 7/10 (another did so after publication of weights)
  • Ran between 10 and 15 times over fences, 7/10
  • Won or been placed in a class 1 ‘National’, 6/10
  • Running in their first Grand National, 6/10 (three of the four had failed to complete)
  • Experience over the National fences, 6/10

Other titbits of information 

  • Last year the 76th horse in the weights got a run on the day
  • Future form Only three winners were successful between now and the Grand National (and one of those was in a low-grade handicap hurdle in Ireland – indeed, six recent winners prepped for Aintree in a hurdle)
  • Be wary of backing horses who are likely to run at the Cheltenham Festival. Only Bindaree (2002), sixth in the William Hill Handicap Chase, Silver Birch (2007), second in the Cross Country handicap chase and Don’t Push It (2010), pulled up in the Pertemps Hurdle, ran at the meeting. However, 2007 was peculiar in that there was an unprecedented four-week break between the two meetings – this year it is the usual three.

So quickly as I’ve not time to go through the first 76 in the list just yet, I’ve taken a quick look and based on a few things the ones that initially stand out are these babies.

Silver By Nature, Ballytrim, Hello Bud, West End Rocker, Character Building, Merigo. Of those the two then that initially appeal most are Ballytrim and West End Rocker.

  • West End Rocker @ 25 Boylesports; Betfair
  • Ballytrim @ 75 Betfair

Will be working on doing the trends for probably the first 80 sometime this week so will have more a definitive portfolio later in the week.

No real desire to back West End Rocker just yet as I doubt his price will come in much more but have taken a bit of the 75s on Betfair in regards to Ballytrim especially when he’s as short as 25s with Paddy Power. Mullins seems bullish about running him without speaking too excitably about the horse.  The horses last run was pretty decent in the Theystes behind Siegemaster and The Midnight Club although relatively unfancied @ 33/1. The Midnight Club is currently third favourite for the National and priced up as short as 16/1 in a number of placed, however with a 3lb pull for that 3 length defeat I think Ballytrim @ 75 is a pretty attractive price.  As I say most of the big firms have Ballytrim priced up @ 40s, whilst PP have him as low as @ 25.  Not saying that he should be priced the same as The Midnight Club but 75s is too big. Will confirm actual trends later this week but he looks to hit a fair number and he’s won a Leinster and Ulster National so isn’t averse to winning a National!

Ballytrim wins at Punchestown

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6 thoughts on “A National Certainty?

  1. Take a read of my blog today and find a National horse that’s;
    – won over 3-miles (twice) at Grade 1 & 2;
    – since Aug 2010 had 2 runs (not won);
    – currently rated OR150 (has been OR162);
    – allotted 11-stone (9 of last 12 placed runners carried 10st12lb+);
    – is a 10yo;
    – RPR160 (highest RPR161 in Apr07);
    – topspeed 154;
    – only 14 chase starts;
    – 1st-ever Grand National.
    Is your mouth watering yet?
    And this is 50/1 and trained by Paul Nicholls.
    visit http://www.waywardlad.blogspot.com

    • I’ll take a look WL. Going to go through the whole list at some stage but those stats definately appeal. Would you be sure he’ll run him? End of the day with the National you could end up making a case for an awful lot of horses.

  2. More I look at it the more I like the look of Silver by Nature, having worked through some trends on my own. Silver scored 14. Taranis scored 11.
    I do though think that the trends are there to be broken as the race is improving in quality all the time, last year you’d have written off Don’t Push It based on his weight but you are 100% correct regards the placings off the higher weights. The one good thing about the National is there is an awful lot of candidates to pick from 🙂

  3. It is a longshot – I’ve had £10 on at 220.0 on Betfair – but, then again, I had £6 on Mon Mome at 170.0 the year he won!
    Paul Nicholls rated his win last season on return from a long break was perhaps the training performance he is most proud of. If it goes straight for the National I’m not bothered, he goes well when fresh.
    If it don’t go for the National then there is little else for it to aim for; I just hope he don’t have a hard race at the Festival.

  4. Just had £2 on him @ 200/1.

    Happy days 🙂

  5. Bit of a result with Nick Watts putting up Ballytrim price has plunged.

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